Number of 25 ppg scorers from 1985-1998 and 2001-2014

[chips93]

I accidentally deleted the file

all thats left are those two graphs

I need to get better at excel for a job im starting, so i might do it again tomorrow

[Rocketswin2013]

This thread has confirmed prolific scoring is decreasing due to more advanced defensive strategies.


Congratulations 3ball.

[dhsilv]

I accidentally deleted the file

all thats left are those two graphs

I need to get better at excel for a job im starting, so i might do it again tomorrow

Doh!

Best of luck with the job. Sadly the business world runs on excel....as horrible as that sounds!

[3ball]

This thread has confirmed prolific scoring is decreasing due to more advanced defensive strategies.


Congratulations 3ball.

Paint-camping and zone was banned inside the paint by defensive 3 seconds, which forces defenders to stay within "armslength" to remain in the 16 x 19 foot paint area.

Having to stay within "armslength" (about 3 feet) is the exact OPPOSITE of a zone and it's the strictest policy other than having defenders stand shoulder-to-shoulder... Yet this strict policy is what governs the most important area on the floor: the paint.

Defenders in previous eras had FAR more freedom inside the paint.. They could remain in the paint "with no time restriction" if their man was in the paint already or within 3 feet or either side.

[chips93]

Doh!

Best of luck with the job. Sadly the business world runs on excel....as horrible as that sounds!

I do like using excel, I'm just a bit rusty

Im mostly self taught though, I could do with more formal training, just to be able to say I'd done it.

[dhsilv]

I do like using excel, I'm just a bit rusty

Im mostly self taught though, I could do with more formal training, just to be able to say I'd done it.

I've found if you can explain concepts in excel even decently you can get hired as an expert in the field. Add in honestly there's so much free information and so many helpful people online, there's really very little value add professional classes could ever provide.

Now work related things where the class just happens to use excel could be pretty valuable.

All that said places like Mr Excel, youtube, and just googling general questions are power. The hardest part if knowing what to ask it to do.

[ClipperRevival]

There was no real era change that made scoring more or less difficult for stars overall, whether your arbitrary cutoff point is 2004 (rule changes!) or 2007 (defenses suddenly discovering they need to protect the strong side!), in one way or the other.

All you see is a repetition of the endless pattern of the usual suspects averaging somewhere between 26 and 33 ppg depending mostly on their specific situation, role and individual performance that particular year.

Critically, the variations within that band seem mostly unpredictable from one year to the next. There's an easy way to prove that as well: can you predict for me the exact ppg Durant is going to average next year? Chances are, some will say around 27, some 29, some 31, but only one of those will be right. Will Carmelo have a 24 ppg or a 28 ppg year? What about Harden?

We're pattern seeking animals, but once you belong to that perennial 25 ppg group, notice how it becomes impossible for you to identify what is going to happen in advance based on whatever pattern you think you're seeing. It's only something you're able to do after the fact, with some bs rationalization about rules and defenses.

Agreed. I hate how these agenda driven posters try to use stats to further solidify their stance with general and unrelated stats. To me, rules changes are overrated. Players and teams will always adjust to the rules. And yeah, if you're a proven great scorer, like consistently averaging more than 25 ppg, you will get yours in any era.

[GIF REACTION]

the fact that bball reference seasons are in "2014-15" as opposed to just "2015" made it take far longer, so I just did back to the 79-80 season

So this is the number of 20ppg scorers each season



and this is the 5 year rolling average



so it paints a similar picture, maybe even a little more drastic, than the 25 and 30 ppg scorers do

there is a big fall off in the number of 20ppg scorers from 2008 onwards

Very interesting data

I can see exactly the points of drop off and what happened

The Illegal Defense rule in 1981 exponentially spiked up the number of 20ppg scorers

The shortening of the 3pt line in 94-95 immediately spiked up 20ppg scorers, but it also congested the court and wasn't a good long term solution

The lockout season of 99' was clearly an outlier.... It was well known that many players were out of condition and unfit, leading it to be an outlier of sorts.... It wasn't defenses, but circumstance and the nature of the lockout that caused that slight drop off.... As we can see the rates went back to the same the season before

Then 2001 removal of Illegal defense, didn't really have an immediate impact but I think some teams like Detroit/Spurs/Nets took advantage of it, hence the record defensive season.

We can see the immediate impact the 04 handchecking rule had on 20ppg scorers, but as you said, after 2007 numbers started to rapidly decline, to where it is at all time lowest levels now. Collusion is a bad answer to this. Teams have been colluding since the 80's.. Personally, I think that handchecking has started to not be called as much, and more teams are flooding strong side, using thibs deny the middle ice type defenses which are conservative to an extent, but get the ball out of the 1st options hands. We'll probably find that 2nd and 3rd options make up a higher percentage of team scoring today than any time before.

[Kvnzhangyay]

I do like using excel, I'm just a bit rusty

Im mostly self taught though, I could do with more formal training, just to be able to say I'd done it.

I really do hope you don't have a Mac- Excel is CRAP for Mac

I used to work at a boutique firm before I started working at a BB (bulge bracket) and I started my internship relearning shortcuts with Windows cuz I always used Mac lol

[hawke812]

[COLOR="DarkRed"]1985-1998[/COLOR]: 87

[COLOR="Navy"]2001-2014[/COLOR]: 92


30+ point scorers:

[COLOR="DarkRed"]1985-1998[/COLOR]: 5 different players

[COLOR="Navy"]2001-2014[/COLOR]: 7 different players
.

1988-1998: Watered down era of the NBA (Note: Championships from 1989-1998 should only count as a 1/3 of a real championship)

1998-present: Non-watered down era of the NBA

[dhsilv]

So I broke down and wanted to get this a bit more detailed.

So quick concept on the data. I'm using a 3 year rolling average but for each group it is exclusive of the other groups. Meaning if I'm saying you're 19.9 you're 19.9 or greater but less than 24.9.

Interestingly all 3 groups as a rule move in similar trends. What's not accounted for here is the number of teams. It would be nice to normalize for that but this is just what I have.

And the actuals if anyone wants to see to look for rules changes and what not with single season impact.

[scandisk_]

dhsilv...

another one of 3ball's alts

kthnxbye

[dhsilv]

dhsilv...

another one of 3ball's alts

kthnxbye

I'm posting to counter his idiotic statements, and I'm him?

[scandisk_]

I'm posting to counter his idiotic statements, and I'm him?

ohhh I've heard that a hundred times 3ball.