Number of 25 ppg scorers from 1985-1998 and 2001-2014

[LBJFTW]

[COLOR="DarkRed"]1985-1998[/COLOR]: 87

[COLOR="Navy"]2001-2014[/COLOR]: 92


30+ point scorers:

[COLOR="DarkRed"]1985-1998[/COLOR]: 5 different players

[COLOR="Navy"]2001-2014[/COLOR]: 7 different players
.

This is proof that it is easier for good players to score more ppg in 2001-2014 than it was in 1995-1998. When comparing ppg numbers of that era like Kobe and Bron to past players in 1995-1998 like Jordan, you have to take into account how much easier it was to score. Basically Jordan would score upwards of 40 ppg in today's era and very efficiently. This makes bron look even more beta in comparison to GOAT MJ.

[chips93]

25+ point scorers:


[COLOR="DarkRed"]1985-1998[/COLOR]: 87

[COLOR="Navy"]2001-2014[/COLOR]: 92



30+ point scorers:


[COLOR="DarkRed"]1985-1998[/COLOR]: 5 different players

[COLOR="Navy"]2001-2014[/COLOR]: 7 different players

we dont really care about 2001-2014

we care about 2009 until the present, as has been mentioned countless times, the effects of the rules changes only manifested in different defensive schemes by around 2009 or later.

if you had those stats, they would be far more interesting.

[dhsilv]

The majority of those 20+ and 30+ scorers from the 2000's come from the 2006/2007 season, after the change, and before the league adjusted with the Thibodeau style defenses. Those 2 years skew the results.

Take those 2 years off the 2000's, and take the other 2 highest years of the 90's, and you'll see a better comparison. Otherwise, this lacks context.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Correct! See the above google doc with every 24.9 point season on record.

2007 had the most 24.9 (I wanted to avoid a rounded value over 24.9 but below 25 that people generally see as being 25) scorers in a single season ever. 2006 is tied with 91 and 72 for the second most.

If we take the assumption (statements by basketball experts) that the start of the modern defenses was 2008 we have and 8 year range to look at.

Now just some simple math here but starting with 8 year rolling averages (didn't do this on the google doc I have 3 and 5 however) and I decided to avoid messing with really old data i left out prior to 74. We get an average of 48.42 seasons in an 8 year range. The 2015 8 year number is 43 and we have a standard deviation of about 7.46 just for context. We also find the the highest 8 year runs were from 91-94 and 2012 (which has the values from the 06 and 07 run).

We can see from the data that there has been a decline in 25+ scorers post 08 though it's not a bigger drop off than we saw in the late 90's (98 and 99 being the worst).

With 29.9 as our standard it's harder to get much from the data. We've only had 2 seasons of 29.9 since 2010 and only 4 since 08. We see similar low points in the early 00's as today (8 year running). 86-95 we see 10+ values though clearly MJ accounts for a rather large portion of this.

Ultimately I think we can see strong evidence that high scoring players is declining, but this has happened before. Odds are offenses and elite players will find ways around it. It would be more interesting to look at 20+ scorers and see if the trends follow but that would require more data and I'm not in the mood unless others want to play with it.

[chips93]

Critically, the variations within that band seem mostly unpredictable from one year to the next. There's an easy way to prove that as well: can you predict for me the exact ppg Durant is going to average next year? Chances are, some will say around 27, some 29, some 31, but only one of those will be right. Will Carmelo have a 24 ppg or a 28 ppg year? What about Harden?

yes, if you go player by player, there is gonna be a decent amount of variation, from year to year. but if you look over multiple year periods, and use multiple scorers (>20ppg), you have a far more meaningful sample size, and the variance diminshes. suddenly there is a clear change. there used to be lots of 20ppg scorers, now, far fewer. maybe its a coincidence, but it seems unlikely, and there is plenty of evidence now to suggest that iso scoring today is different from how it used to be.

the stats, the tape, and the coaches all back it up.

[chips93]

Ultimately I think we can see strong evidence that high scoring players is declining, but this has happened before. Odds are offenses and elite players will find ways around it. It would be more interesting to look at 20+ scorers and see if the trends follow but that would require more data and I'm not in the mood unless others want to play with it.

nice post

how did you get the original data though, do you have some way of scraping it from basketball reference?

[dhsilv]

nice post

how did you get the original data though, do you have some way of scraping it from basketball reference?

Copy and paste from basketball reference after using season finder. For 340 seasons it took like 2 minutes to copy and paste. Thus I'd need people to really care for me to do 20+ which would actually take a lot more time.

I'm updating the file with unique players by decade. Formula is a bit screwy and unlike the other ones I had to think about so modifying it to do rolling ranges would be harder but perhaps you're better than I am :)

[StephHamann]

but if you look over multiple year periods, and use multiple scorers (>20ppg), you have a far more meaningful sample size, and the variance diminshes. suddenly there is a clear change. there used to be lots of 20ppg scorers, now, far fewer.

the stats, the tape, and the coaches all back it up.

Because we live in the collusion era that started 2010.

A guy like Josh Smith could be the nr 1 guy on severall teams, instead he played as 4th-5th fiddle on the rockets for the league minimum. Same with guys like Amare (could still be a starter on some teams) or now David West.

Bosh is another example, of course he won't average 20ppg as the 3rd guy on a team.

[chips93]

Copy and paste from basketball reference after using season finder. For 340 seasons it took like 2 minutes to copy and paste. Thus I'd need people to really care for me to do 20+ which would actually take a lot more time.

I'm updating the file with unique players by decade. Formula is a bit screwy and unlike the other ones I had to think about so modifying it to do rolling ranges would be harder but perhaps you're better than I am :)

i think i might have found an easier way of doing it

EDIT: i was wrong

[dhsilv]

i think i might have found an easier way of doing it

Do share :)

[3ball]

Do share :)

Here's how I got the OP data:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/..._g_top_10.html


Took me about 5 minutes to count 87 guys who averaged 25+ ppg during MJ's career, compared to 92 from 2001-2014.

[dhsilv]

Here's how I got the OP data:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/..._g_top_10.html


Took me about 5 minutes to count 87 guys who averaged 25+ ppg during MJ's career, compared to 92 from 2001-2014.

I was asking if he found a way in excel to do a count unique that is easy to change in input factors so we can test rolling averages and not use the hard coded decades I added to the data.

It can be done mind you, but formulas get ugly and easily screwed up if you're not careful. Thus the ugly sum if if frequency array in the google doc I posted.

[chips93]

the fact that bball reference seasons are in "2014-15" as opposed to just "2015" made it take far longer, so I just did back to the 79-80 season

So this is the number of 20ppg scorers each season



and this is the 5 year rolling average



so it paints a similar picture, maybe even a little more drastic, than the 25 and 30 ppg scorers do

there is a big fall off in the number of 20ppg scorers from 2008 onwards

[Bankaii]

Because we live in the collusion era that started 2010.

A guy like Josh Smith could be the nr 1 guy on severall teams, instead he played as 4th-5th fiddle on the rockets for the league minimum. Same with guys like Amare (could still be a starter on some teams) or now David West.

Bosh is another example, of course he won't average 20ppg as the 3rd guy on a team.

You're such an idiot.

How far in the playoffs did a Josh Smith led team get? A Bosh led team?

It's morons like you that complain about how weak the East is because teams are getting led by average players but when teams get better you complain about that too.

And did Kareem and Magic, Bird and McHale and Parish, Jordan Pippen and Rodman, Hakeem Barkley and Drexler, Shaq and Kobe and Payton and Malone, Rondo And Ray Allen and Garnett and Pierce, Kobe And Nash and Pau and Dwight all not happen? You act like superstars have never played together.

Dirk is on the streets sucking dick for the chance of a star going to Dallas. But of course you won't mention that.

[dhsilv]

You have the data somewhere you can put into a google doc?

Would be interesting to overlay a few different sets of data together.

[juju151111]

Collision era started after Boston big 3 which means less 30 ppg seasons. Wade and Lj. Then Harden was improving every year and then Dwight joined. He doesn't take enough shots.