Will Harrison Barnes get TT type money next summer?

[AnaheimLakers24]

Lakers need to throw money at him or batum. Throw money at wiltside as well

[SwishSquared]

Its like you didn't read my post at all. Parsons got a 3/45. Hayward got a 4/62. Both are FAR BETTER offensive players. You are saying Barnes is going to get 4/95 or 5/129.5.

It's like you didn't read my post at all, actually. I said he's likely getting ~20-21% of the cap next year. That's sub max. That equates to $77M/4 years if he starts at $18M for 2016-2017.

You're comparing $ values now, when it's much wiser to speak of % cap. Didn't Parsons get ~22.5% of the cap? Hayward got 25% of the cap after statistically regressing nearly across the board (obviously he had much less help compared to his 3rd season and wasn't ready for the increased workload). Mind you that's when cap smoothing was still in play.

Both guys were considered overpays at the time. So I'm wrong to assume Barnes will be an overpay? Barnes was better defensively by RPM than both guys last season.

Offensively, Barnes is a catch and shoot guy. A quite proficient one from the corners. He easily slides to PF and is great at playing system ball. You're not thinking realistically if you don't think Barnes will get an offer that's above the expected average starter salary (~$16M/year), especially as a young wing.

I never said you have to pay him that much. I know you wouldn't. That doesn't make my point incorrect.

[SwishSquared]

And a max deal this year is 4/95.2M for another team. Or 76% more than Wes Matt agreed to.

It's 36% more in terms of $$$. $95.2M is 36% more than $70M. Wes agreed to the max after DJ backed out. That's what matters since he actually signed that deal.

He was willing to take a lot less to be on a team he expected to be better. He got a max offer from SAC, too. He was going to be paid if he punted on being part of a good organization and/or great team.

[Phantom_Blue]

Why do I feel like this guy is the next Richard Jefferson.

[DMAVS41]

Barnes is being a bit under-rated here on his talent. He was a top 7 pick in the draft for a reason.

He's not a superstar by any means, but he's also a very good player. He is the 3rd/4th option on a loaded team right now....he could produce better numbers than he currently does. That doesn't make him a better player, but looking at Barnes only from a production standpoint is unfair.

He's 23 years old and knows, by virtue of just playing on the Warriors, what it takes for a team to win.

He's going to get get Wes type offers...just the fact that he's 6 years younger and has not seen his best ball yet make that a no brainer.

[bdreason]

He's gonna get $15+M per. Curry will also get extended for $25+M per.

[Levity]

lakers wil pay beacoup bucks to get him. itll up be to the warriors to match or not.

[Thorpesaurous]

He was the 3rd most important player on a team that sent 4 other players to the All-Star game last year?

Sometimes guys need bigger roles. And DC is probably in that situation. He is the 3rd/4th option on a good Raptor team. He is extremely flexible. Can play multiple positions, can defend multiple positions, etc. But he got 4/60. Again, we are talking about Barnes making >50% more.

That's fair. That Hawks team is a little tough to do that with. I'm sorta thinking of the end of the season when he was going to be the piece that defended Lebron. I'd still say he's at least comparable to Teague, who they had a better backup for in Schroeder.


The other guys in that mold, like you said, can play multiple spots, particularly on D, and stretch the floor on offense, that got extended last year, would be Jimmy Butler, who's just on another tier, Khris Middleton, who realistically can't pull the PF duty like Carroll can, and got paid comparably. Kwahi and Paul George fit that roll a bit, but those guys are both a tier ahead.

I'd say Barnes would probably fall somewhere between those max guys and the Carroll and Middleton crowd. Keep in mind everyone will have money to spend, so there will be plenty of bidders.

[HurricaneKid]

It's like you didn't read my post at all, actually. I said he's likely getting ~20-21% of the cap next year. That's sub max. That equates to $77M/4 years if he starts at $18M for 2016-2017.

You're comparing $ values now, when it's much wiser to speak of % cap. Didn't Parsons get ~22.5% of the cap? Hayward got 25% of the cap after statistically regressing nearly across the board (obviously he had much less help compared to his 3rd season and wasn't ready for the increased workload). Mind you that's when cap smoothing was still in play.

Both guys were considered overpays at the time. So I'm wrong to assume Barnes will be an overpay? Barnes was better defensively by RPM than both guys last season.

Offensively, Barnes is a catch and shoot guy. A quite proficient one from the corners. He easily slides to PF and is great at playing system ball. You're not thinking realistically if you don't think Barnes will get an offer that's above the expected average starter salary (~$16M/year), especially as a young wing.

I never said you have to pay him that much. I know you wouldn't. That doesn't make my point incorrect.

I'm not that far away from you. I grant that the reality is that he is going to get PAID this offseason. There is just too much money out there for him not to. But I think people are conflating the best selling market players have ever had with actual on court impact.

He turned DOWN more than 16M/ so I think we all know he is going to get more. But I do think a lot of teams are going to look at these price tags and tap out. I think a lot of teams will be fine being under the floor at the end of free agency.

I scoff at the notion that Barnes is anywhere NEAR the player Middleton is. Midz took a discount because he wanted to stick with the team that grabbed him from obscurity as a throw in on a Jennings/Knight deal and helped develop him. He didn't even take calls and I imagine he could have made far more elsewhere.

Barnes is a 34% 3pt shooter this year. And every shot I have seen him take has been a CLEAR look that few other teams can offer with regularity. When you give a guy a 100M deal you demand more from him. The basis of my argument is that he hasn't shown he can provide that. We are talking about other teams maxing him out. If GSW don't match, and I think they would be foolish to at that price, he is going to be paid as a top 2 player on another team. And he is going to disappoint should that happen.

This "as a %" thing is silly too. Three of the 4 years will overlap with the deals we are talking about here. And 16M will still be well over the league avg for a starter (which by the way, he barely is).

[BIG FURB]

He is probably the 6th best player on this Warriors team. If he is your second best player you are hoping for your lottery balls to hit. Period.

His skill set is far from worthy of a max deal. He is simply the beneficiary of having guys stretch the floor and break down defenses for him. The Warriors problem is that there are too many teams with too much money this offseason.

Being the 6th best player on the defending champions (currently off to a 13-0 start to the season) ain't the same as being the 6th best player on your average nba team. This warrior team is known for being deep and talented, so even the 6th best player would probably be the 2nd or 3rd best player on any other team in the league. Plus he's currently the teams 3rd leading scorer as its "6th best player", one of those is a statistical fact, the other is simply your opinion. Another good stat for him, he's currently 3rd on the team in +/- behind only Steph and Draymond. If he keeps this up the boy is gonna get paid. All that while being in a slight shooting slump from distance, and he's still got a TS% of .583. once he finds his range again, which he's been doing, his numbers are only gonna get better

[FireDavidKahn]

He should be getting double what TT got.

[SwishSquared]

I'm not that far away from you. I grant that the reality is that he is going to get PAID this offseason. There is just too much money out there for him not to. But I think people are conflating the best selling market players have ever had with actual on court impact.

He turned DOWN more than 16M/ so I think we all know he is going to get more. But I do think a lot of teams are going to look at these price tags and tap out. I think a lot of teams will be fine being under the floor at the end of free agency.

I scoff at the notion that Barnes is anywhere NEAR the player Middleton is. Midz took a discount because he wanted to stick with the team that grabbed him from obscurity as a throw in on a Jennings/Knight deal and helped develop him. He didn't even take calls and I imagine he could have made far more elsewhere.

Barnes is a 34% 3pt shooter this year. And every shot I have seen him take has been a CLEAR look that few other teams can offer with regularity. When you give a guy a 100M deal you demand more from him. The basis of my argument is that he hasn't shown he can provide that. We are talking about other teams maxing him out. If GSW don't match, and I think they would be foolish to at that price, he is going to be paid as a top 2 player on another team. And he is going to disappoint should that happen.

This "as a %" thing is silly too. Three of the 4 years will overlap with the deals we are talking about here. And 16M will still be well over the league avg for a starter (which by the way, he barely is).

I don't think he's a first or second option- rather, he likely tops out as a good 3rd option or a great 4th option (like he currently is). He's a smart player, subpar ballhandler & passer, can hit open shots, and brings just enough defensive versatility that he works in lots of lineups. He also keeps the ball moving, brings 0 ego, and his teammates like him.

To some teams, he's definitely worth paying by virtue of being their best option to improve their wing rotation considering the likely limited options available in free agency next summer. He turned down $64M/4 years because he knows that money will still be there next summer if he plays exactly the same as he did last season.

I never said he's definitely getting a max- Warriors aren't giving him a max-they'll make him sign an offer sheet so they let the market dictate his price. I said he's getting sub max, but will be above 20% of the cap. I think that's a fair estimation for where the market sets his value. Terrence Ross just got $11M/yr and he's significantly worse than Barnes.

I don't think teams will recklessly throw around money to meet/go above the salary floor, as you said, but they'll at least have a chance to be way more active thanks to the big jump in cap space.

They won't be able to get him, but for example, Barnes would kill on the Clippers. He'd be such a huge upgrade over Lance/Pierce/Johnson that it could be a difference maker for them. Teams that feel they're a piece short will definitely try to meet with him.

Also, that ~$16M annual salary for an average starter has been the estimate from the smartest NBA analysts-Lowe, Nate Duncan, etc. That's not something I made up.

Also re:$$$ vs. %. The reason I brought up the % when discussing Hayward and Parsons is because those guys signed contracts prior to the Players' Union rejecting cap smoothing. Teams risked being stuck with those deals without knowledge that there would be the huge cap spikes in the coming years. Hayward can be a free agent in 2017 and Parsons can become a free agent this summer, fwiw.

Middleton (whom I didn't mention in previous posts), Carroll, & Matthews all were signed when it was announced the cap would spike (and trend downward in a few years). Those financial scenarios are pretty different and I think are worth noting. For context, prior to the '14-'15 season, I thought Middleton would for sure get $13M/year and anything above that wouldn't surprise me. He signed below market b/c he wanted to have a player option on the 5th year (J-Val and MKG got lower per-year deals for the same trade-off) and was comfortable being on a team on the rise. I don't think it had much to do with "pulling him from obscurity."

Another thing to note is that a guy like Middleton was forced to grow as he spent part of last season carrying a larger workload after injuries took their toll on the roster. Barnes hasn't been tasked with that, but I think we both agree he wouldn't fare as well in that position.

Barnes' 1st three games this year featured bad shooting (40.6/12.5/80.0), but in his last 10 games he's shooting much better (51.0/39.4/89.7). He's shooting more 3s and FTs in that span, as well. His shooting splits last year were 48.2/40.5/72.0 as a reference point. Idk if he finishes the year shooting 40% from downtown, but his first week was pretty bad and skewed the data.

[FireDavidKahn]

There would have to be some type of sign and trade but if the Wolves can get him and keep Lavine?

Rubio
Wiggins
Barnes
Bjelia
Towns

[Embers]

He rejected 4 year 64.8 mill deal from the Warriors so its clear he is searching for more.

My gut feel however is I think he wants to be a bigger piece of the puzzle elsewhere. He is underutilized at GSW and in the shadows too much. I think a move to a side like the Lakers is up his alley so he can become a huge part of a teams offense

Do like the idea of him on the T-Wolves though

[SwishSquared]

There would have to be some type of sign and trade but if the Wolves can get him and keep Lavine?

Rubio
Wiggins
Barnes
Bjelia
Towns

You guys have like $25M in cap space this summer right? May as well throw a ton of money at either Barnes or Fournier. Even if you get stuck with a huge, "bad" contract you have a clean cap sheet going forward and would gain a role player who brings outside shooting, which this team needs. Both those guys are much better Lavine or Shabazz, and it's not guaranteed that those guys ever are as good as Barnes/Fournier currently are.