Rookie of the Year Tiers:

[CuhGetsBucks]

I'll explain what I mean my friend,

Lebron James would likely win ROY in 80%-95% of the Drafts you put him in.
(Loses to MJ, David Robinson off the top of my head)

Michael Carter Williams likely does not win ROY in 80% of the drafts you put him in, or even 90%.

That's why I take competition into account.
Chris Paul would win in many drafts, Wiggins might not, since his scoring output (16.9) and his W total (Last in the league) and his lack of Rebounding and Passing (Absymal) might not be enough to win over past ROY winners, or even Past ROY 2nd places (Melo and Hakeem off the top of my head)

Bruh but hindsight is 20/20, MCW posted similar #s up as Kyrie (17/6/6 compared to 19/4/5) with similar win percentages. MCW was 3 ppg away from rookie Tyreke Evans type #s. Win total is not a great way of measuring a rookie's impact (see: Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving), most rookie classes hold a collective bunch of average to below average rookies and then one or two star rookies. That's what makes classes like 2003 so special. The way you're making it sound is like Wiggy won ROY averaging 12 ppg.

[Overdrive]

The term transcendent talent gets used too loosely. To me, the only truly transcendent talent in the last 20 years is LeBron. These guys come around every 10-15 years, before him it was Shaq. Being a great player doesn't mean you are transcendent.

Tim Duncan was one, too, but I agree. Transcendent talents are about to be rookies who you'd hand over the keys to your franchise before they even play a minute.

[ClipperRevival]

Tim Duncan was one, too, but I agree. Transcendent talents are about to be rookies who you'd hand over the keys to your franchise before they even play a minute.

I never got that LeBron/Shaq hype about Duncan when he entered the league. But yeah, transcendent talents are the type of guys who you KNOW are going to be great even before they step on the court because they possess physical advantages that almost guarantee them greatness.

[ralph_i_el]

I never got that LeBron/Shaq hype about Duncan when he entered the league. But yeah, transcendent talents are the type of guys who you KNOW are going to be great even before they step on the court because they possess physical advantages that almost guarantee them greatness.

I wasn't old enough to really care when Duncan was coming out, but wasn't he extremely sought after? Boston tried to tank for him. He was an all-star as a rookie

[ClipperRevival]

I wasn't old enough to really care when Duncan was coming out, but wasn't he extremely sought after? Boston tried to tank for him. He was an all-star as a rookie

There are levels to hype. At the highest end is the hype that Shaq, LeBron, KAJ and Wilt got. I don't think Duncan got quite that level of hype. He was no doubt seen as very polished and a safe pick. But I don't know if people envisioned his ceiling to be of a transcendent level.

[Overdrive]

There are levels to hype. At the highest end is the hype that Shaq, LeBron, KAJ and Wilt got. I don't think Duncan got quite that level of hype. He was no doubt seen as very polished and a safe pick. But I don't know if people envisioned his ceiling to be of a transcendent level.

I didn't follow the NBA yet when Shaq was drafted, but Duncan got hyped as a day #1 All-Star even back then. David Robinson told the press that he'll hand over the keys when the season starts iirc. I think Duncan was seen as the surest thing since I started following(Hill/Kidd rookie season).

[ClipperRevival]

I didn't follow the NBA yet when Shaq was drafted, but Duncan got hyped as a day #1 All-Star even back then. David Robinson told the press that he'll hand over the keys when the season starts iirc. I think Duncan was seen as the surest thing since I started following(Hill/Kidd rookie season).

Yeah, but being a safe/sure thing doesn't necessarily mean you are a transcendent talent. No doubt he got a lot of hype. I just don't think it was on the Shaq/LeBron level.

[SamuraiSWISH]

There are levels to hype. At the highest end is the hype that Shaq, LeBron, KAJ and Wilt got. I don't think Duncan got quite that level of hype. He was no doubt seen as very polished and a safe pick. But I don't know if people envisioned his ceiling to be of a transcendent level.

This ...

Transcendent players, guys that push the imagination or change the way the game is perceived or played. Something fresh, or never seen before. Guys that had the keys to the franchise because management was so confident in their potential before even stepping on the floor. Players you can BANK on being HOF type level players.

If Curry was doing what he did this past season from jump street, and was sought after before being drafted, he'd be on this list too.

LeBron
Shaq
Jordan
Magic / Bird
KAJ
Wilt

The rest are just GREAT ball players. That's not a knock on them, either. Or slight.

[ClipperRevival]

This ...

Transcendent players, guys that push the imagination or change the way the game is perceived or played. Something fresh, or never seen before. Guys that had the keys to the franchise because management was so confident in their potential before even stepping on the floor. Players you can BANK on being HOF type level players.

If Curry was doing what he did this past season from jump street, and was sought after before being drafted, he'd be on this list too.

LeBron
Shaq
Jordan
Magic / Bird
KAJ
Wilt

The rest are just GREAT ball players. That's not a knock on them, either. Or slight.

Well, if we are talking PRE-draft hype, I don't think you can include Jordan, Magic or Bird. MJ was the 3rd pick. No one knew he would be this good. He went after Sam Bowie for Christ sakes. LOL.

And while Magic/Bird were seen as off the charts talents in terms of IQ, skills and feel for the game, their natural athleticism were lacking and I don't think they were seen as "can't miss" transcendent type talents.

[Papaya Petee]

At Rose being in that first tier.

No. Just no. Idc that he won the MVP being 7-8th best player in the league.

[BigKAT]

At Rose being in that first tier.

No. Just no. Idc that he won the MVP being 7-8th best player in the league.

I still feel that a healthy Rose = 55-60 Wins for the Bulls for the last 4-5 seasons and a solid chance to give Lebron a run for his money.

We never got to see Prime Rose.

Heck, Prime Rose never existed, since injuries robbed him of that oh so lethal mix of athleticism and experience/skill (That sweet spot that makes you the MVP of the league in 4 out of 5 years.)

[LilEddyCurry]

*I'll put some that were devestated by injuries, try to look at them as the ROY, and not their careers right now

I'll go with recent ones, you guys feel free to fill the rest or put out your own list entierly.

The names are in no particular order:

Franchise Players: (Trasncendent Talent)
Karl Anthony Towns
Kevin Durant
Lebron James
Derrick Rose
Chris Paul

Future Star: (Would've won ROY in many drafts)
Kyrie Irving
Damian Lillard
Blake Griffin
Brandon Roy
Tyreke Evans (When he won ROY he was.)

Gems in the Mud (Won ROY, their competition was less then stellar)
Andrew Wiggins
Emeka Okafor



Big Fish in a Small Pond:
Michael Carter Williams
Mike Miller

Are you trying to rank how good a player's rookie season is or are you trying to say how good their career is?

[BigKAT]

Are you trying to rank how good a player's rookie season is or are you trying to say how good their career is?

I'm trying to rank their Rookie of the Year Season and prospects for the future at the time. But it's impossible to be completly unbiased towards their careers, so that's expected and forgiven in this discussion, do try to contain yourself to to that time span if you can.

[LilEddyCurry]

I'm trying to rank their Rookie of the Year Season and prospects for the future at the time. But it's impossible to be completly unbiased towards their careers, so that's expected and forgiven in this discussion, do try to contain yourself to to that time span if you can.

This is a good thread for discussion but the tiers are quite arbitrary depending on interpretation of the tiers.

Personally, I think that based on just rookie seasons alone, Blake Griffin and Tyreke would be ranked in the first tier. Blake Griffin averaged 22/12.5/3.8 assists in his rookie season while having all the athleticism in the world. Tyreke joined elite company with 20/5/5.

Also, based on 'prospects for the future', Wiggins is ranked too low. It is not his fault that his class did not live up to standards in their rookie season. Wiggins was projected to take a few years to develop (similar to Paul George, Kawhi) but exceeded his expectations in his first year. His potential was still there. Rose who actually averaged less points than Wiggins (not saying Wiggins had a better rookie season) is 2 tiers above him? They are both super athletic and have the potential to be something special. They should both be in the "Future star" tier IMO.

[Sarcastic]

How is Blake Griffin not in the top tier? He put up 22.5/12.1/3.8, which shits all over KAT, and most everyone else on the list. He was posterizing everyone, and was clearly seen as a franchise player, and still is.