Why isn't Sweden experiencing massive covid-19 fatalities yet?

[oldtimer28]

It's slightly higher because they have a significant amount of seniors.

Not sure if you are familiar with Florida, but they have the 2nd highest amount of % pop 65 and older, while California is much younger.

As you can see from the data, CA has higher death rate w/ Covid-19 in people below 65 and people above 65.

And btw, in case you also didn't know, CA has one of the strictest lockdowns in the country & earliest state to wear masks, while FL has been much more open than CA the whole time, #1 landing spot for people from NY back in April 2020, and the gov ended most of the pseudoscience back in late Sept 2020.

Thanks but doesn't answer my question. The numbers make no sense. They are saying more people > 65 die in California. More people < 65 too but overall, more die in Florida (146 vs 133). What am I missing?

[Cleverness]

Thanks but doesn't answer my question. The numbers make no sense. They are saying more people > 65 die in California. More people < 65 too but overall, more die in Florida (146 vs 133). What am I missing?

The data makes sense.

I think you're missing two things:

1) The death rates adjust for population
2) There are more seniors in FL than CA

[bladefd]

Overall death rate from covid is still quite a bit more in Florida though. Just do total deaths from covid divided by total state population multiplied by 100 to get the percentage of deaths.

[Cleverness]

Overall death rate from covid is still quite a bit more in Florida though. Just do total deaths from covid divided by total state population multiplied by 100 to get the percentage of deaths.

That's because there are far more seniors in FL. If you're not aware, the median age of death with Covid-19 is significantly higher in seniors. In fact, the median age of death with Covid-19 is above average life expectancy.

Quick math, correct me if I'm wrong:

(Per Capita) FL has 29.2% more seniors than CA and 8.9% more deaths w/ Covid-19, while also being far more open and less locked down and masked up as CA.

Edit: again, correct me if I'm wrong, but per CDC data:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

California had 119% of expected deaths in 2020
FL had 117% of expected deaths in 2020

(While also being far more open and less locked down and masked up as CA)

[oldtimer28]

The data makes sense.

I think you're missing two things:

1) The death rates adjust for population
2) There are more seniors in FL than CA

Thanks - those numbers don't make sense, even with your explanations. Studied statistics and finance, plus work with numbers so have a reasonable background. I do make mistakes though.

Let's just leave it as a caution to other readers to understand the numbers themselves.

[Cleverness]

Thanks - those numbers don't make sense, even with your explanations. Studied statistics and finance, plus work with numbers so have a reasonable background. I do make mistakes though.

Let's just leave it as a caution to other readers to understand the numbers themselves.

You'll need to be more specific for which numbers don't make sense to you. All of the numbers are on the table. You can do simple math to calculate the rates.

I've tried explaining it a couple ways. I'll try another way.


Example:

Company A has 100 cars and 10 planes.

They crash 40 cars (40%) and 2 planes (20%). 42 vehicles crashed (38%)



Company B has 10 cars and 100 planes.

They crash 5 cars (50%) and 30 planes (30%). 35 vehicles crashed (32%)



Company A crashed MORE vehicles (38% > 32%, overall death rate), but had a LOWER rate of cars crash (40% < 50%) AND a LOWER rate of planes crashed (20% < 30%). This is because each company has a different amount of planes and cars (seniors and non-seniors).

Now do you see how it's possible for one company (state) to have more overall vehicles crash (overall death rate), yet have lower rates of crashing (deaths) for both types of vehicles (senior vs non seniors)?

[Lebowski]

Sweden has had lighter restrictions then our neighbours, as mentioned in here already. And also mentioned, elderly homes was hit extra hard because of lack of restrictions early. Having said that, we slowly enforced more restrictions like closing middle schools and up, closing restaurants early, forcing businesses to control and maintain a maximum amount of visitors at the same time. Still, not to be compared to Denmark, Norway of Finlands level of restrictions.

Because people are too stupid to follow the most simple of suggestions/restrictions we probably have had a lot of unnecessary deaths too (good example are people going to work at elderly homes feeling sick, and worse in at least one known case, knowing they where covid-positive).

We have always had leaders/medical experts who has asked us to (and most of us has tried to follow): Wash your hands, stay at home if you have the symptoms/sick and after getting better stay at home for an extra couple of days, don't travel if not necessary (i.e. planes, trains), skip traditional holiday celebrations, don't go to large gatherings, try to shop alone, wear masks on public transport. Most companies, like the one I work for, has sent all that can work from home, home. To name a few things, many of them, very easy to follow and has not created chaos.

What we have not had is "leaders", media and other "influencers" trying to push: everything is fine, no one will die, go wherever to meet whomever, warm weather will kill it, you might try inject disinfectant and so on. That would have made things worse i'm sure, and the death count would probably have been much higher then 13 595.

[jstern]

Manny98 wins again.

[rmt]

In retrospect, Sweden had it right. Imagine if US hadn't locked down (job loss), had school closures, etc - our inflation and education loss would be much less.

I can't find the CA/FL numbers referenced above but FL has a higher ratio of seniors compared to CA and CA has a higher percent of young residents (probably due to migrants) than FL.

I do know that no one could visit the nursing homes in FL, and DeSantis set up monoclonal antibodies sites throughout the state where everyone knew they could go to and get free early treatment if they caught covid.