Polls may say he's behind

[ZenMaster]

Not a statistician so someone correct me if Im wrong here, but if I call 100 homes and 7 say theyre voting for Biden, while 3 people say Trump, and everyone else refuses to answer... my poll is gonna show Biden with a 70-30 lead, yeah?

Even if the other 90 people plan to vote Trump.

If I find one person in all of Florida who says hes switching his vote I can run that story and package it with those poll numbers and claim seniors are swinging toward Biden bc of Covid.

Im not saying the supposed trend is real or embellished. I have no idea. No election result that will surprise me. I’m simply pointing out how easy it is for the media to spin narratives and have folks who are... less savvy, lets say... eat it up as truth. Especially when it’s the truth they desperately want to believe in the first place.

They say they've figured out how to compensate for this, but as in the example you set up, the variables in accounting for this are crazy to figure out. So yeah, am not and won't be looking at the polls, but just waiting to see what happens.

[TheMan]

Not a statistician so someone correct me if Im wrong here, but if I call 100 homes and 7 say theyre voting for Biden, while 3 people say Trump, and everyone else refuses to answer... my poll is gonna show Biden with a 70-30 lead, yeah?

Even if the other 90 people plan to vote Trump.

If I find one person in all of Florida who says hes switching his vote I can run that story and package it with those poll numbers and claim seniors are swinging toward Biden bc of Covid.

Im not saying the supposed trend is real or embellished. I have no idea. No election result that will surprise me. I’m simply pointing out how easy it is for the media to spin narratives and have folks who are... less savvy, lets say... eat it up as truth. Especially when it’s the truth they desperately want to believe in the first place.

You do realize there is a science to it, right? Even campaigns have internal polls and they pay a pretty penny, I doubt they are just giving out money to dopes who pull numbers out of their asses. Polls aren't always right, but they do get it right more often than not, especially when you take out an average of various polls.

[starface]

You do realize there is a science to it, right? Even campaigns have internal polls and they pay a pretty penny, I doubt they are just giving out money to dopes who pull numbers out of their asses. Polls aren't always right, but they do get it right more often than not, especially when you take out an average of various polls.

Bro.

If Biden voters are consistently the ones answering surveys... thats gonna give him a big poll lead

A lot of young people are #WalkingAway from the Dems and saying so openly on social media and etc. Whether theyre voting 3rd party or not voting. I dont know if theyre answering polls. We know hardly any Trump voters are talking to pollsters.

Generally, the ONLY people polls are getting responses from are Biden voters. So of course the numbers will skew HEAVILY in his favor. Theres nothing “respected” pollsters or even campaign insiders can do to get an even picture. People who arent voting Biden arent talking to pollsters. This may include a significant number of older people. Who wants to admit to MAGA just to have some possibly sinister pollster leak their number or address and start getting harassed?

When you create this kind of climate of intimidation, you dont get an accurate view of what people really think. Weve never had this level of insanity surrounding an election in our lifetimes. So polls are EVEN MORE skewed than 2016, and 2016 was EVEN MORE skewed than previous elections.

This is very simple. Please tell me you at least understand what Im saying.

[ZenMaster]

Trump's winning California. Nice.

Probably not, but the difference from 4 years ago looks significant:

[Patrick Chewing]

Bro.

If Biden voters are consistently the ones answering surveys... thats gonna give him a big poll lead

A lot of young people are #WalkingAway from the Dems and saying so openly on social media and etc. Whether theyre voting 3rd party or not voting. I dont know if theyre answering polls. We know hardly any Trump voters are talking to pollsters.

Generally, the ONLY people polls are getting responses from are Biden voters. So of course the numbers will skew HEAVILY in his favor. Theres nothing “respected” pollsters or even campaign insiders can do to get an even picture. People who arent voting Biden arent talking to pollsters. This may include a significant number of older people. Who wants to admit to MAGA just to have some possibly sinister pollster leak their number or address and start getting harassed?

When you create this kind of climate of intimidation, you dont get an accurate view of what people really think. Weve never had this level of insanity surrounding an election in our lifetimes. So polls are EVEN MORE skewed than 2016, and 2016 was EVEN MORE skewed than previous elections.

This is very simple. Please tell me you at least understand what Im saying.

It’s pointless, TheMan is low-IQ. He focuses on the polls, but ignores the rallies.

[TheMan]

Bro.

If Biden voters are consistently the ones answering surveys... thats gonna give him a big poll lead

A lot of young people are #WalkingAway from the Dems and saying so openly on social media and etc. Whether theyre voting 3rd party or not voting. I dont know if theyre answering polls. We know hardly any Trump voters are talking to pollsters.

Generally, the ONLY people polls are getting responses from are Biden voters. So of course the numbers will skew HEAVILY in his favor. Theres nothing “respected” pollsters or even campaign insiders can do to get an even picture. People who arent voting Biden arent talking to pollsters. This may include a significant number of older people. Who wants to admit to MAGA just to have some possibly sinister pollster leak their number or address and start getting harassed?

When you create this kind of climate of intimidation, you dont get an accurate view of what people really think. Weve never had this level of insanity surrounding an election in our lifetimes. So polls are EVEN MORE skewed than 2016, and 2016 was EVEN MORE skewed than previous elections.

This is very simple. Please tell me you at least understand what Im saying.

I get what you're saying but I will refer you to 2018 and the butt whipping the GOP recieved (predicted by polls BTW).

[TheMan]

It’s pointless, TheMan is low-IQ. He focuses on the polls, but ignores the rallies.

We shall see, amigo. I will destroy your ISH persona when I make you use a NAMBLA member avy

[TheMan]

It’s pointless, TheMan is low-IQ. He focuses on the polls, but ignores the rallies.

https://youtu.be/8YkRXrvW42A

[starface]

I get what you're saying but I will refer you to 2018 and the butt whipping the GOP recieved (predicted by polls BTW).

Anything can happen. I have no clue which way things will go. But the idea that old people swapping candidates based on covid is a significant trend, is not supported by anything credible. It's a narrative based on cherry picked anecdotes.

[Rocket]

If you were actually religious you’d respect Communism.

I think it would be a great idea for you to purchase a Bible and study scripture. You are completely clueless to what Jesus did and said and why he did it. I can only assume you are conflating Jesus talking about giving to the poor with communism. Jesus talked about giving of your own accord to the poor. He did not say let the government take from you for redistribution. I hope you realize communism is socialism at gunpoint. Communist countries most always make it very tough on Christians. They prefer the people worship the state. The reason Jesus came to the world was to be the Lamb of God. He came to be the ultimate sacrifice to take away the sins of anyone who accepts and believes in him. Maybe your parents will give you a few dollars to purchase a Bible so you can learn from it. The wisdom you will receive from it could save your soul for all of eternity.

[~primetime~]

Early voting numbers in Texas are record breaking...no surprise though really...this election is going to have an extremely high turn out.

Some saying a 70% turnout in Texas is not out of the question.

most lines currently require hours long wait times

[tpols]

Early voting numbers in Texas are record breaking...no surprise though really...this election is going to have an extremely high turn out.

Some saying a 70% turnout in Texas is not out of the question.

most lines currently require hours long wait times

Trumps gonna win Texas.

[~primetime~]

Trumps gonna win Texas.

I believe so yes

if he didn't, none of the other states even matter...so he better

[Real Men Wear Green]

"Suburban women, will you please like me?"

A fascinating* quote.

Does it tell us that Trump believes mainstream polling?

Does it tell us that Trump has lost part of his 2016 coalition?

Or am I guilty of taking things out of context and this is just Trump telling us he's got no game?


* (though maybe a little off I'm typing what I think I heard him say)

[Luka Doncic]

We shall see, amigo. I will destroy your ISH persona when I make you use a NAMBLA member avy

Chewing allow.