What's next for the us economy and covid response?

[bladefd]

We will know tomorrow (technically today since it's 12:10am now) what the Feds are doing. Hearing that they are speeding up increasing interest rates to pop the inflation bubble. They were talking about doing it in June, but it could be in March now. They are also pulling the plug on the $120 billion per month of bond-buying that they began last year.

Watch when that happens. Inflation will reverse quickly, but yes, stock market will go through a pretty big correction. I think the correction already began couple of weeks ago because people are expecting the 0% interest rate to rise. The Federal Reserve director is speaking this afternoon on his decision.

Aap, bigkobefan, nanny, jstern, patty, etc, get ready to shift that playbook from inflation to rising interest rates/stock market correction. I just don't want you guys to fall behind on your hatin'.

[Axe]

When you can't provide anything smart to a discussion, post memes.

[Nanners]

When you can't provide anything smart to a discussion, post memes.

imagine coming to ISH OTC for smart discussions.

Did you actually read the thread at all? First you have Blade saying that inflation has nothing to do with money printing (LOL), then Highwey claims that inflation is because of price gouging companies (because apparently companies only started price gouging when Biden took office?), then you have Axe saying that joe is just cleaning up Trumps mess (the classic libtard narrative never gets old does it?)... Ill consider providing something smart to this discussion when someone posts a comment worthy of a smart response. TBH that meme I posted is probably the most intelligent comment in this short bus thread.

[bladefd]

I was talking specifically about the stimulus checks, which wasn't a big reason for this inflation. I should not have said "nothing" back when I made that post in May because it is somewhat of a reason too, but it actually isn't the biggest reason. Had the three stimulus checks gone out and there was no other issue, we would have been okay with small blip on inflation counter.

Unfortunately, the economy that was shutdown opened up quickly - bulk of the inflation is from that. However, yes, money printing was another big culprit. The feds have been pumping $120 billion per month into buying bonds since like April of last year. I said in another thread months ago that money printing was a big problem exarbating the inflation, and it needed to be braked down. We should have fully slashed the monthly $120 billion pumping months ago over the summer. Feds are finally planning on doing that now to pop the inflation bubble.

[bladefd]

Here's a breakdown of the cost of the stimulus checks:

Cares act 2020: $610 billion... https://www.crfb.org/blogs/visualization-cares-act

Consolidated appropriations bill: $920 billion... https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usa...amp/4602942001

American rescue plan: $651 billion https://www.naco.org/resources/featu...ding-breakdown

They covered a lot of other things in those bills outside of stimulus money, which was why the three bills fluffed up. Altogether, the 3 bills added up to 5.2 trillion. About 2 trillion of that went to the stimulus checks.

Altogether, $13 trillion were printed since early covid to now.. http://www.nasdaq.com/articles/money...and-more%3famp

That makes the stimulus checks account for about 15-16% of the money printed in the time frame. Stimulus checks was not the biggest reason for the inflation as I said. But okay yes, it was somewhat a part of it.

[paksat]

4% huh? what's next blade? Gas prices have nothing to do with the current administration?

[Nanners]

4% huh? what's next blade? Gas prices have nothing to do with the current administration?

Blade - "Its not Bidens fault that all the oil companies suddenly decided to start price gouging the moment that Biden took office"

[Shogon]

Inflation will reverse quickly

Inflation is going to "reverse quickly."

You heard it here first, people. Housing prices are about to plummet nation wide.

[Shogon]

BTW what that dipshit doesn't realize is the US Government can't really afford interest rates to rise in any meaningful way. Sure, they can go up and that will cause a drawdown in the market because people are stupid. But they can't do anything crazy with interest rates, because if they did, they would have to substantially reduce spending otherwise the national debt would turn into an even bigger shit show than it already is.

And before anyone wants to claim that the debt doesn't matter, that's bullshit.

The World Bank released a study saying that a country reaches a tipping point when the debt to gdp ratio approaches or exceeds 77%. Right now the U.S. debt to gdp ratio is around 125%.

Look, I'm not a fortune teller... nobody is. Nobody knows. The people with their hands on the switches don't even know... but I don't see us ever coming back from this in any meaningful way. The public would never support massive reduction in spending. Never. Never never never. People are stupid and that's it.

It's all going to fall apart and people are going to eat each other in the streets. When? I don't ****ing know. The system has more inertia built into it than I previously had an appreciation for. It might be next year, it might be 5 years, it might be 10 years, or 20. Who the **** knows. Not me. But it will come to an end one day. And I would be shocked if I get to be an old man without it happening.

[bladefd]

Inflation is going to "reverse quickly."

You heard it here first, people. Housing prices are about to plummet nation wide.

Yes, there will be multiple 0.25% rate hikes most likely. The estimate is 2-3 hikes in 2022 and a couple more in 2023. When the hike begin, inflation will pop essentially fairly quickly.

I do find it pretty funny that you intentionally took 4 words out of the entire argument to create a strawman argument. You are an idiot.

[bladefd]

BTW what that dipshit doesn't realize is the US Government can't really afford interest rates to rise in any meaningful way. Sure, they can go up and that will cause a drawdown in the market because people are stupid. But they can't do anything crazy with interest rates, because if they did, they would have to substantially reduce spending otherwise the national debt would turn into an even bigger shit show than it already is.

And before anyone wants to claim that the debt doesn't matter, that's bullshit.

The World Bank released a study saying that a country reaches a tipping point when the debt to gdp ratio approaches or exceeds 77%. Right now the U.S. debt to gdp ratio is around 125%.

Look, I'm not a fortune teller... nobody is. Nobody knows. The people with their hands on the switches don't even know... but I don't see us ever coming back from this in any meaningful way. The public would never support massive reduction in spending. Never. Never never never. People are stupid and that's it.

It's all going to fall apart and people are going to eat each other in the streets. When? I don't ****ing know. The system has more inertia built into it than I previously had an appreciation for. It might be next year, it might be 5 years, it might be 10 years, or 20. Who the **** knows. Not me. But it will come to an end one day. And I would be shocked if I get to be an old man without it happening.

You are basing your numbers (like debt to gdp ratio) to 2020 and 2021 in the 2 years that we have out of the ordinary massive spending hike where we printed $13 trillion. That is certainly not going to continue.

Let's put it into proper perspective. 2019 had debt to gdp ratio of 107%. 2020 was 129%, 2021 has been 125%. I expect 2022 to be getting closer in line with 2019 even if not under 110% debt to gdp ratio. Yes, we have not fully recovered yet so I do expect some heavy bleeding early in the new year. When the fed tapers & eventually pulls the 120$ billion per month of bond-buying, that will be a big one.

I do think we must get back to under 100% debt to gdp ratio sooner or later because even 110 is way too high. I don't know if it's something we can focus on or if the boat has sailed on it. You obviously can't do it overnight but it has to be done over years to slowly pull back and actively fight to bring down the debt, beginning with the deficit. But that would have to be a long-term goal of perhaps a decade, and I'm not too optimistic if we can cut back across multiple administrations.

For the short-term, Powell is speaking soon so we will have some idea of what the feds plan to do and most importantly the timeline, which we may get some signs on. I don't expect them to open the door for us and give specifics like dates, but we will have a better idea later today.

[bladefd]

4% huh? what's next blade? Gas prices have nothing to do with the current administration?

Do me a favor. Go look at the dates of those posts in the thread. I think you are smart enough to do that, right? Someone is obviously getting a kick out of bumping up threads from more than 6 months ago and trying to get "back" at me. Nanners obviously wasn't intelligent enough to realize that for the 2nd time in a week. Don't be that guy.

[BigKobeFan]

4% huh? what's next blade? Gas prices have nothing to do with the current administration?

I remember that idiot Jasper said "gas prices have gone down since biden took office" after that point, there's no talking to an idiot like him.

[bladefd]

Feds just announced the bond-buying program is going to slashed significantly. It will probably end sometime in March if they continue slash at the pace they have been, just like I said earlier today. They also announced that they may raise the interest rates 3 times in 2022 alone, just like I said last night. I suspect they will raise it until the inflation begins to reverse. So they may not need to raise 3 times, but it depends on how fast the inflation responds.

[The Hick]

Inflation will reverse quickly

See you in April for more sniveling and excuses