Is the reported 99.98% covid overall survival rate bullshit?

[Shogon]

Ok, this is not to push any conspiracies so please stop with that shit before you start. I am sure that some deaths have been falsely attributed to covid, there is no way that they haven't, but that's not what this thread is for. That being said...



If the overall survival rate is 99.98% which is what has been repeatedly reported... that works out to 1 in 5000 die.

So...

Google says 651,000 deaths total in the US from covid since it first appeared.

Google says US population is 328,000,000.

Google says 328,000,000 x 0.02% = 65,600. And that's operating under the idea of a 100% contraction rate, which is obviously not true.



65,600 != 651,000. So you see the problem...



But... there have been 40.4 million reported cases... and let's say that 40% of overall cases are unknown and undocumented. That would mean that there have been 67.3 million actual cases.

And if we have lost 656,000 out of 67,300,000... that means that the survival rate is more like 99%, which is a far far cry from 99.98%.

99%, for those of you that don't understand plain English, means 1 in 100 or a 1% death rate.

1 in 100 is a far ass cry from 1 in 5000.

And let's assume that the 40.4 million figure is somehow magically all actual cases... well the death rate climbs even higher to 1.6%.

So... what gives?

What am I missing?

[PistonsFan#21]

Ok, this is not to push any conspiracies so please stop with that shit before you start. I am sure that some deaths have been falsely attributed to covid, there is no way that they haven't, but that's not what this thread is for. That being said...



If the overall survival rate is 99.98% which is what has been repeatedly reported... that works out to 1 in 5000 die.

So...

Google says 651,000 deaths total in the US from covid since it first appeared.

Google says US population is 328,000,000.

Google says 328,000,000 x 0.02% = 65,600. And that's operating under the idea of a 100% contraction rate, which is obviously not true.



65,600 != 651,000. So you see the problem...



But... there have been 40.4 million reported cases... and let's say that 40% of overall cases are unknown and undocumented. That would mean that there have been 67.3 million actual cases.

And if we have lost 656,000 out of 67,300,000... that means that the survival rate is more like 99%, which is a far far cry from 99.98%.

99%, for those of you that don't understand plain English, means 1 in 100 or a 1% death rate.

1 in 100 is a far ass cry from 1 in 5000.

And let's assume that the 40.4 million figure is somehow magically all actual cases... well the death rate climbs even higher to 1.6%.

So... what gives?

What am I missing?

99.98 was the survival rate for people either under 65 years old or 50 years old. Can't recall for sure. I think it falls down to around 95% survival rate if you are 75+ years old.

Edit: here's the link for total cases count per age group since the start of the pandemic: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-by-age-group/

And here's the death total per age group since the start of the pandemic: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...vid-by-age-us/

There is a 2 weeks difference between the data for both graphs but you can still get the big picture

[Shogon]

99.98 was the survival rate for people either under 65 years old or 50 years old. Can't recall for sure. I think it falls down to around 95% survival rate if you are 75+ years old.

Yeah I know it jumped to 5% for old people but I could have sworn 99.98 was the overall survival rate.

[Bronbron23]

Ok, this is not to push any conspiracies so please stop with that shit before you start. I am sure that some deaths have been falsely attributed to covid, there is no way that they haven't, but that's not what this thread is for. That being said...



If the overall survival rate is 99.98% which is what has been repeatedly reported... that works out to 1 in 5000 die.

So...

Google says 651,000 deaths total in the US from covid since it first appeared.

Google says US population is 328,000,000.

Google says 328,000,000 x 0.02% = 65,600. And that's operating under the idea of a 100% contraction rate, which is obviously not true.



65,600 != 651,000. So you see the problem...



But... there have been 40.4 million reported cases... and let's say that 40% of overall cases are unknown and undocumented. That would mean that there have been 67.3 million actual cases.

And if we have lost 656,000 out of 67,300,000... that means that the survival rate is more like 99%, which is a far far cry from 99.98%.

99%, for those of you that don't understand plain English, means 1 in 100 or a 1% death rate.

1 in 100 is a far ass cry from 1 in 5000.

And let's assume that the 40.4 million figure is somehow magically all actual cases... well the death rate climbs even higher to 1.6%.

So... what gives?

What am I missing?

So some new studies are suggesting that anywhere from 25%-50% of the population has had covid so it could be more around 175-200 million people in the us has had covid. That would change the numbers some but it still wouldn't account for the difference.

From what i've read it does sound like alot of deaths are being wrongfully attributed to covid but i haven't seen any stats or hard proof of that so i don't know how accurate that is. The way the cdc, gov't and media have been telling untruths i wouldn't be surprised if they're also fudging the numbers but that's just my hunch. I don't know if that's the case or not.

All i know is i know a shit ton of people and those people's know a shit ton a people and out of all of these people i only know of 2 people who passed from covid and both were immune compromised. Maybe me and my friends have just been luck but that's alot of luck. I'm not saying covid is a conspiracy. I think it's legit but i do wonder if it's being exaggerated and used for another agenda. I'm skeptical of government and media by nature though.

[FultzNationRISE]

Yeah I know it jumped to 5% for old people but I could have sworn 99.98 was the overall survival rate.

Probably because that number gets referenced a lot online, without necessarily including the age qualifier.

It's kind of amusing when people argue "you got vaccinated for polio and small pox as a kid, this is no different!!!"

It's actually much different, because those diseases have a much greater likelyhood to affect kids and kids cant make informed medical decisions for themselves.

It's interesting how Covid only seriously impacts older people. Sure old people are more prone to adverse affects from things like flu and pneumonia, but we're not allowed to compare covid to that. Covid is supposed to be much different. I can't think of anything like typhus or tuberculosis or malaria or aids or chickenpox or anything that only messes you up if youre old or in bad health.

This is actually a pretty convenient virus in terms of the global overpopulation crisis. I guess if you have to have a pandemic, the best you can hope for is to have it affect the old and infirm.

Pretty useful coincidence.

I'll take it.

[Shogon]

Probably because that number gets referenced a lot online, without necessarily including the age qualifier.

This is probably the core of my issue and misunderstanding, yeah.

It's kind of amusing when people argue "you got vaccinated for polio and small pox as a kid, this is no different!!!"

It's actually much different, because those diseases have a much greater likelyhood to affect kids and kids cant make informed medical decisions for themselves.

It's interesting how Covid only seriously impacts older people. Sure old people are more prone to adverse affects from things like flu and pneumonia, but we're not allowed to compare covid to that. Covid is supposed to be much different. I can't think of anything like typhus or malaria or aids or chickenpox or anything that only messes you up if youre old or in bad health.

This is actually a pretty convenient virus in terms of the global overpopulation crisis. I guess if you have to have a pandemic, the best you can hope for is to have it affect the old and infirm.

Pretty useful coincidence.

I'll take it.

[tontoz]

Dont know but i heard that 80% of current cases are the Delta variant which is more contagious and more deadly. I think that throws a monkey wrench in previous numbers.

[Bronbron23]

Dont know but i heard that 80% of current cases are the Delta variant which is more contagious and more deadly. I think that throws a monkey wrench in previous numbers.

Hard to say. Delta being more contagious and deadly should be offset by the amount of the population that's vaccinated. Alot of the people from the stat of American deaths were before vaccines

[tontoz]

We are going to find out the hard way how Delta effects young people with schools open.

[JohnnySic]

Why haven't any really famous people died from covid? I mean, with 650K reported dead (LOL), you'd think a handful of notable people would have died by now. Its the law of averages. But, basically nada. I guess covid discriminates by class or something.

[Bronbron23]

We are going to find out the hard way how Delta effects young people with schools open.

I don't we will. It still kills and severely effects kids at a extremely low rate. Plus delta has be proven to be more contagious but there's conflicts reports and studies on if it's more deadly.

[tontoz]

I don't we will. It still kills and severely effects kids at a extremely low rate. Plus delta has be proven to be more contagious but there's conflicts reports and studies on if it's more deadly.

You misunderstand what i am saying. Right now there is a lot of speculation about Delta. We are going to find out for sure with schools open.

It isn't just the kids but also the faculty, many of whom are in your age range.

[Bronbron23]

You misunderstand what i am saying. Right now there is a lot of speculation about Delta. We are going to find out for sure with schools open.

It isn't just the kids but also the faculty, many of whom are in your age range.

Oh yeah i hear ya. Time will tell. There's a new variation called mu or wu or something that apparently the vaccine doesn't even work for. Hopefully it doesn't spread like delta or shit will get even crazier

[FultzNationRISE]

Oh yeah i hear ya. Time will tell. There's a new variation called mu or wu or something that apparently the vaccine doesn't even work for. Hopefully it doesn't spread like delta or shit will get even crazier

[Cleverness]

That's why I continue to educate people that the median age of death with Covid-19 is above average life expectancy.

As I've recently posted, here is the CDC's latest estimate:

99.999% survival rate in people 0-17

99.96% survival rate in people under 49

99.94% survival rate in people 18-49 years old

The survival rate is much lower for very old and frail people. For example, if you have 12 comorbidities and are 112 years old and you get Covid-19, your chances of dying within the next 30 days are much higher than if they were a healthy 28-year-old.

Not sure I agree with the CDC that only 1 in 1.3 Covid-19 deaths were reported, though as we've seen, labeling deaths w/ Covid can be tricky when almost all of the people dying were also dying of other causes.

Another thing you need to realize, as I've stated at least 10 times now, is that the number of detected cases is not the same as actual infections or exposures.

The CDC estimates that 1 in 4.2 infections have been reported. So we actually have a total of 40.4 x 4.2 = 170 million cumulative infections (per latest CDC model) and cumulatively no known infections prevented by 12-18+ months of masks, lockdowns, school closures, travel bans, etc.