Expected Championships Won and Titles Over Expected

[Airupthere]

Let's ignore what acutally happened in the regular season and playoffs and go with the prediction made 100 games ago

You mean the team’s actual incapacity to play their true potential?

[TheGoatest]

Let's ignore what acutally happened in the regular season and playoffs and go with the prediction made 100 games ago

Both the #2 and #3 guy get injured and literally don't play in the playoffs/finals.
Sorry, no excuse for you. Look at your pre-season odds!

[aj1987]

The Lakers underachieved in those years. Especially in 2013. Not sure what your point is.

Preseason odds do not account for injuries, chemistry, and a bunch of other stuff. I mean, you live for Kobe. Replace LeBron with Kobe on all of LeBron's teams, and they'd do significantly worse. They'd have worse preseason odds as well.

[dankok8]

I'm working on another Titles Over Expected (TOE) metric but using postseason odds at the beginning of the playoffs. So far the results seem very similar with using preseason odds, not nearly the kind of differences that people expect. Some players are a bit higher or lower but nothing major. Anyways I think both metrics have their advantages and disadvantages. Preseason odds still reward maximizing team ceilings over the course of the entire season but are affected by injuries, trades (rare) etc. However postseason odds also have their downside namely what happens to teams that miss the playoffs entirely. They get a total pass because their title odds are obviously zero. And they still don't account for injuries that happen in the playoffs.

A piece of good news is that I can find postseason odds going back to at least the mid 70's so I can add Lakers Kareem, Moses, Dr J and do Magic and Bird's entire careers. I'd love to add Wilt and Russell as well but that will require some serious research through newspapers.

[TheCorporation]

Let's ignore what acutally happened in the regular season and playoffs and go with the prediction made 100 games ago

Exactly

[3ba11]

No one would talk about Lebron's Finals comp if the 2016 Finals was a meeting of 2 titans with close odds

But instead, Lebron's preseason favorite fell to massive Finals underdog, and then his fans complained about Finals comp..

Lebron had a super-team and the preseason favorite from 2011-2016, so he can't complain about being a Finals underdog those years.

This type of fraud is typical of Lebron's career because his resume would be shit without forming super-teams in a conference that Dwight was winning by himself, along with other 1-star teams (Iverson, Kidd).