How bad will the upcoming recession be?

[Doomsday Dallas]

most companies are seeing gains and thriving. Hence the inflation.

Hence the inflation?

As if printing $6 trillion extra dollars had nothing to do with it?

Wow.

If you really think Inflation is happening because business is booming again... you need to double check what reality you are living in.

[Doomsday Dallas]

And I've made threads Trump is guilty of Socialism... so I'm not placing the blame on Red or Blue in regards to inflation.

But It should be common sense if the Fed prints Trillions upon Trillions... Inflation is going to happen.

[Off the Court]

Oh yeah it started with the money printing absolutely.

$4T stimulus -----> Everyone goes shopping ------> Economy OVERstimulated businesses are able to charge people more -------> inflation



Now the Fed is trying to reverse it by jacking up rates, sparking recession fears and making investors worried.

It all reverses once the inflation rate is tamed, and right now inflation is trending downward. So I don't see why 2023 is so scary. We are trending in the correct direction.

[Doomsday Dallas]

Oh yeah it started with the money printing absolutely.

$4T stimulus -----> Everyone goes shopping ------> Economy OVERstimulated businesses are able to charge people more -------> inflation



Now the Fed is trying to reverse it by jacking up rates, sparking recession fears and making investors worried.

It all reverses once the inflation rate is tamed, and right now inflation is trending downward. So I don't see why 2023 is so scary. We are trending in the correct direction.

2023 is scary because because we've maxed out the credit card, the World is basically at War (Ukraine), and we still have $hit ton of political tension in our near future.

If nothing happens... ok, we should be fine.... but if we have another "X" factor we didn't account for... things could go to hell very quickly.


I suspect we could have an X factor next year.

[Doomsday Dallas]

We are trending in the correct direction.

Over the past year... not so much.

Dow was at 36.5 in the beginning of 2022.

from mid August to Early October it went from 34 to 29 ... currently at 32.


We will see how it goes... but the trend suggests it will soon fall below 28.

[Off the Court]

GDP is rising
employment is rising
inflation is falling

The only one of those I would pick to reverse is employment and that is for the simple fact that it basically as low is it could be so there is no where to go but down.

The one that holds the most importance is inflation, and all indications say that we are past the peak and now headed back down to earth. We haven't maxed out the credit card (it has no max) but we have turned the credit card off for the time being until inflation is under control.

Once inflation is in a reasonable place the Fed will turn the water tap back on, and the stock market will be in full bull mode. And we are heading into 2023 with inflation on it's way down.




So yes I agree. In order for things to go sour, an "X" factor needs to happen. But unforeseen events are always a possibility.

[Doomsday Dallas]

So yes I agree. In order for things to go sour, an "X" factor needs to happen. But unforeseen events are always a possibility.

That X factor is going to happen in Summertime of 2023.

book it.


So it very well could be smooth sailing for the next 8 months... but come Summertime, all bets are off.

[Off the Court]

That X factor is going to happen in Summertime of 2023.

book it.


So it very well could be smooth sailing for the next 8 months... but come Summertime, all bets are off.

Oh yeah is that what Spiderman said?

[HoopsNY]

Like I said you can find losing companies in any point in time, but overall most companies are seeing gains and thriving. Hence the inflation.

Your dad, aunts, uncles, etc who are in their 60s should have seen their net worth rise a great deal especially if they own a home. If they are renting and already getting by on pennies then okay. I think the people that are actually struggling are the young would be home owners.

Overall I was just replying to your assertion that investors have had the last 8 years wiped out which for the majority is absolutely false. Right now the Fed is trying to kill the economy to fight inflation and a market set back is the byproduct but the economy has proven to be resilient. If everyone where truly "screwed" as you are trying to suggest then there would be no inflation.

I clarified that statement. Everyone is not screwed, but significant portions of the population are and will be. We're not seeing the immediate effects just yet, but we will in time.

You're right that we can find companies dropping in any point in time, but I'm not sure such drops were correlated with QE.

My aunt and uncles are lucky to be homeowners. My dad, not so much. But my aunt still panicked because they both need their retirement accounts for their healthcare as my uncle had a massive heart attack a couple years ago and they will need cash outside of social security to deal with medical bills and other necessities.

But you're right about the young and would be home owners. And that's why this is troubling, because we need to continue to fund social security, otherwise it goes insolvent by 2033.

[HoopsNY]

Oh yeah it started with the money printing absolutely.

$4T stimulus -----> Everyone goes shopping ------> Economy OVERstimulated businesses are able to charge people more -------> inflation



Now the Fed is trying to reverse it by jacking up rates, sparking recession fears and making investors worried.

It all reverses once the inflation rate is tamed, and right now inflation is trending downward. So I don't see why 2023 is so scary. We are trending in the correct direction.

How is inflation trending downward? Inflation was higher last month than the previous month. In addition, the fed interest rate is 3.25%. That number has to go above inflation, which is 8.2% currently. We have a longgggg way to go.

[Off the Court]

How is inflation trending downward? Inflation was higher last month than the previous month. In addition, the fed interest rate is 3.25%. That number has to go above inflation, which is 8.2% currently. We have a longgggg way to go.

It's down the last four months

June - 9.1%
July - 8.5%
Aug - 8.3%
Sept - 8.2%

9.1% in June looks like the peak.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-.../inflation-cpi

[Long Duck Dong]

Unemployment remains low and people aren't panicking but damn it looks slow out there. I'm ok because I don't spend a lot outside the business but some of my competitors are starting to hurt bad. I've been waiting for the panic that never seems to come

[Avinash]

With Joe Biden expect the worst.

[Bill Gates]

80% of Americans think a recession will take place this year or early next year. How bad do you think it will get?

The correct answer was "None"

There was no recession

[highwhey]

The correct answer was "None"

There was no recession

its cummin