How good do you think Chet's talent is?

[Im Still Ballin]

Let's ignore Wemby and the Rookie of the Year discussion for a moment and talk about Chet's talent. I think we've been so in awe of Victor that Holmgren is being slept on a little. He'd be getting far greater praise in any other season. Or would he? I don't know. What do you think?

How good do you think he is? Is he a generational talent? Someone who has the potential to be a HOFer? A future MVP-level candidate? An All-NBA caliber guy?

I don't think he's going to win an MVP playing with Shai and Jalen. Circumstance plays a huge factor. Kind of like how McHale and Kobe weren't going to while playing with Bird and Shaq in their primes. The highest they did finish were fourth ('87) and third ('03) respectively.

But that doesn't mean he's not an "MVP" kind of talent. Because I think he is. He has such a complete, two-way game already that it's hard to find faults. I guess his slender frame but even that hasn't held him back as some thought it would. But I have no doubts he'll improve when he adds another 15-20 pounds.

This is how I look at it: if Wemby is the Tim Duncan/Kevin Garnett-level guy, then Chet to me is Dirk in comparison. And I don't mean that stylistically; rather, just how generally good his talent is comparatively speaking.

Does that make sense to you? I keep hearing that you can't compare Victor and Chet because Wembanyama is in another league. On another level. But what does that mean? Are we talking LeBron vs. Carmelo? LeBron vs. Bosh? LeBron vs. Wade?

Out of those three, I think it's somewhere between Carmelo and Wade. That's how high I am on Chet. And I fear due to his circumstances, people won't give him his full due props. Like they didn't with McHale. Or to a lesser extent, Kobe - until he went at it alone and won.

[Xiao Yao You]

He's certainly better than Carmelo and probably Bosh as well

[FultzNationRISE]

Does that make sense to you? I keep hearing that you can't compare Victor and Chet because Wembanyama is in another league. On another level. But what does that mean? Are we talking LeBron vs. Carmelo? LeBron vs. Bosh? LeBron vs. Wade?

Out of those three, I think it's somewhere between Carmelo and Wade. That's how high I am on Chet. And I fear due to his circumstances, people won't give him his full due props. Like they didn't with McHale. Or to a lesser extent, Kobe.

I think you're missing the obvious comparison, Lebron vs Durant (unless you were going specifically for same draft year).

Chet to me is like Durant with a higher intangibles ceiling. Which is obviously a very high ceiling.

Lebron and Yama have physical gifts you cant find in any other humans, they are 1 of 1 type athletes. Plus they have good attitudes and IQ so their ceilings are essentially limitless. Durant and Holmgren arent the only tall guys around but they are the most talented scorers of the ones who are out there. So theyre still elite but not like, in another dimension like Lebron and *possibly* Yama some day.

The other thing to consider tho is that what made guys like Durant and Dirk so special is how unique they are in their era. Holmgren might not be that unique in the league five years from now. There may be a bunch of guys like him. That's what gives Yama the possibility of separating himself. Maybe there'll be one other Yama in like 3 or 4 years down the line or whatever, but we're not gonna see another half dozen of them in the next few years, the way we may with guys like Chet.

[RRR3]

I think you're missing the obvious comparison, Lebron vs Durant.

Chet to me is like Durant with a higher intangibles ceiling. Which is obviously a very high ceiling.

Lebron and Yama have physical gifts you cant find in any other humans, they are 1 of 1 type athletes. Plus they have good attitudes and IQ so their ceilings are essentially limitless. Durant and Holmgren arent the only tall guys around but they are the most talented scorers of the ones who are out there. So theyre still elite but not like, in another dimension like Lebron and *possibly* Yama some day.

The other thing to consider tho is that what made guys like Durant and Dirk so special is how unique they are in their era. Holmgren might not be that unique in the league five years from now. There may be a bunch of guys like him. That's what gives Yama the possibility of separating himself. Maybe there'll be one other Yama in like 3 or 4 years down the line or whatever, but we're not gonna see another half dozen of them at least in the next few years, the way we may with guys like CHet.

We probably aren't ever going to see another Wembanyama lol. Have we seen another LeBron? Another Shaq?

[FultzNationRISE]

We probably aren't ever going to see another Wembanyama lol. Have we seen another LeBron? Another Shaq?

That's what I mean. You can't say 'never' because it is POSSIBLE there's another one in a few years. But it's just as possible we may not. Whereas Holmgren is I think more likely at least to be the 'first of many' coming down the pipe over the next few years. Maybe not 'many' but at least more.

[Im Still Ballin]

Sure. I agree with the gist of your post. The vibe of your text message. Great prose by the way. Sharp as always.

But here's what I'm saying: we're snoozing on Chet. Or at least a lot of people are. I keep hearing all of this talk about how Chet is benefiting from his circumstance. That Victor has no help, and that his teammates are terrible. I really do think the narrative regarding circumstance is heavily in Wemby's favor; yet, for some reason, the audience thinks it's the other way around.

I have barely heard anyone say that, maybe, just maybe a big reason why OKC has improved so much is Chet. That his circumstance - being OKC - is benefitting from him. It reminds me of that quote from Jack Nicholson's character in The Departed:

"I don't want to be a product of my environment; I want my environment to be a product of me."

I hear and read way more people marking Chet down for being on a good team than I do the opposite. I hear and read way more people marking Wemby up for being on a bad team than I do the opposite. But for some reason, everyone's acting like the inverse is true. Which is strange to me.

Wemby is a better talent but if Chet was in a more ideal circumstance he could win an MVP before Victor. What if he was in Orlando instead? A dominant defense that needs an offensive centerpiece? And they're a top seed in a few years? And he gets to put up an efficient and scoringly diverse 25 ppg, 12 rpg, 4 apg, and 3 bpg?

You swap out Chet for Paolo and he's getting those 20+ scoring possessions per game (including shot attempts that end in free throws). And they're most likely several games better right now.

Orlando is 34-26 at the moment. Switch Banchero out for Holmgren and that's a team that would've been close to hitting 40 wins before 20 losses.

That's how high I am on his talent. But because he's on a team with other great talents, many won't fully appreciate how good he is.

[FultzNationRISE]

Well I think OKC is a good team for both reasons. They have a young group who are at the age where each year of experience makes a big difference. They would definitely be an improved team this year without Holmgren. But adding him has also been a part of that improvement. Just like if youd put Chet on San Antonio they might have a few more wins bc hes been more consistently polished from the beginning, but they dont become even a play-in team. Its still basically the same result. The team is a much bigger factor than the individual.

Youre right, Holmgren isnt in a situation where he can put up whatever shots he wants and just play for experience. He’s on a top seed team with an MVP candidate, he has to sacrifice some numbers and opportunity right now. That said, Holmgren is gonna get a chance to show everyone where he stands when the playoffs start. More people will see him and have more context for his game. Regardless of what his stats look like, if OKC is gonna succeed in the ‘yoffs Chet is gonna have to make an impact, and if that happens he’ll get his recognition.

Meanwhile Yama’s clock will start ticking pretty much after this year for people saying “he hasnt made the playoffs, he needs to make the playoffs, whens he gonna make the playoffs.” So he needs to hope the Spurs make some decent moves quick.

Basically what Im saying is, the regular season of their rookie years really doesnt mean anything for either guy. Whatever value each of them has will become apparent in time.

[Kblaze8855]

Hes obviously very good player, but like all the rest, it’s impossible to do historical comparisons based on anything but observation. I don’t know if he would be way more hyped in a different season. He wouldn’t have beat someone like Blake Griffin for a rookie of the year. And people will tell you Blake was never as good as Al Horford.

I think he’s going to be a star, but I’m not sure what shape that takes when he’s playing with an MVP, caliber guy and another guy who might well be a superstar next season. He’s in the gift and a curse situation where people will act like he’s automatically great because of things heavily influenced by his good team but his raw numbers will be worse because of that team as well.

Depends on the kinda guy he sees himself as. He doesn’t seem like an ego guy to me so he’s probably in the right place. Plus with today’s insane pace it’s easy for everybody to eat. I expect a great career. But the shape of it is going to be determined by where he falls in his teams hierarchy over the next five years. You’re only going to do so much if you’re playing with two superstars.

He he gonna be the Harden, the Russ, or the KD? The KD spot seems claimed right?

And how many can there be at once?

[iamgine]

I think Chet can be really good, but more Amare Stoudemire level good. Not Dirk good.

Wemby otoh, has legit potential to be the best of all time. Even though I don't think he will reach it.

[oldtimer28]

Let's ignore Wemby and the Rookie of the Year discussion for a moment and talk about Chet's talent. I think we've been so in awe of Victor that Holmgren is being slept on a little. He'd be getting far greater praise in any other season. Or would he? I don't know. What do you think?

How good do you think he is? Is he a generational talent? Someone who has the potential to be a HOFer? A future MVP-level candidate? An All-NBA caliber guy?

I don't think he's going to win an MVP playing with Shai and Jalen. Circumstance plays a huge factor. Kind of like how McHale and Kobe weren't going to while playing with Bird and Shaq in their primes. The highest they did finish were fourth ('87) and third ('03) respectively.

But that doesn't mean he's not an "MVP" kind of talent. Because I think he is. He has such a complete, two-way game already that it's hard to find faults. I guess his slender frame but even that hasn't held him back as some thought it would. But I have no doubts he'll improve when he adds another 15-20 pounds.

This is how I look at it: if Wemby is the Tim Duncan/Kevin Garnett-level guy, then Chet to me is Dirk in comparison. And I don't mean that stylistically; rather, just how generally good his talent is comparatively speaking.

Does that make sense to you? I keep hearing that you can't compare Victor and Chet because Wembanyama is in another league. On another level. But what does that mean? Are we talking LeBron vs. Carmelo? LeBron vs. Bosh? LeBron vs. Wade?

Out of those three, I think it's somewhere between Carmelo and Wade. That's how high I am on Chet. And I fear due to his circumstances, people won't give him his full due props. Like they didn't with McHale. Or to a lesser extent, Kobe - until he went at it alone and won.

I hesitate but Bill Russell potential for game impact. He has made that much impact on winning for OKC. Watch games last year vs this year.

[AlternativeAcc.]

I hesitate but Bill Russell potential for game impact. He has made that much impact on winning for OKC. Watch games last year vs this year.

Ultra efficient 2nd option, with excellent feel for the game, and elite rim protection.


His play style works in any system and would automatically elevate any team. It's a far better style than Wemby offensively, and just as good defensively.


Imagine what 5 years in the NBA will do, he's just gonna get better as a creator while continuing to build upon his near perfect playstyle.

Wembys career will be full of hype and injuries, Chet just wins ball games and plays the right way. Gonna win several rings.

[Carbine]

Second option rings carry little to no weight

Look at Scottie, Pau, etc.

It's always going to be Shais team on OKC.

[AlternativeAcc.]

Second option rings carry little to no weight

Look at Scottie, Pau, etc.

It's always going to be Shais team on OKC.

Look at Magic/Kareem, Shaq/Kobe, Durant/Kobe

Chet is a rookie phenom, there is absolutely no reason to assume he won't continue to get better as he gets older, stronger, and smarter on the court. His personal development will coincide with the Thunder making deep playoff runs, and there's a great chance he gets superstar recognition the likes Pau and Pippen never quite achieved.

So no, your point is invalid

[oldtimer28]

Ultra efficient 2nd option, with excellent feel for the game, and elite rim protection.


His play style works in any system and would automatically elevate any team. It's a far better style than Wemby offensively, and just as good defensively.


Imagine what 5 years in the NBA will do, he's just gonna get better as a creator while continuing to build upon his near perfect playstyle.

Wembys career will be full of hype and injuries, Chet just wins ball games and plays the right way. Gonna win several rings.

I agree but also like VW.

Injuries undermine anyone so hope both remain healthy. I still cringe when I see Chet take contact but he handles it well so far. Does look awkward so hope he is healthy.

VW is too aggressive at times. Great for playing style - if stays healthy. Just concerns me to see him taking risks when his games are meaningless.

[ImKobe]

#2 on a title team.