2015 Warriors vs. 2019 Raptors

[dankok8]

Who wins in a best of seven?

[SouBeachTalents]

That Raptors team kinda gets slept on now due to the weirdness of Kawhi being there only one year and the fluky nature of his GW against Philly, but they had great depth, and I think they have the personnel to make things difficult for Curry, which outside of his 47 point outing, they did at times in the 2019 series.

Idk if their Finals performance tainted my perspective of them, but I'm not sure the last title team I'd actually pick the 2015 team to beat h2h, maybe the Mavs or the Kobe/Gasol Lakers.

[ShawkFactory]

Probably the Raptors. I'd go with them in 6.

[dankok8]

That Raptors team kinda gets slept on now due to the weirdness of Kawhi being there only one year and the fluky nature of his GW against Philly, but they had great depth, and I think they have the personnel to make things difficult for Curry, which outside of his 47 point outing, they did at times in the 2019 series.

Idk if their Finals performance tainted my perspective of them, but I'm not sure the last title team I'd actually pick the 2015 team to beat h2h, maybe the Mavs or the Kobe/Gasol Lakers.

Oh wow. You're pretty low on the 2015 Warriors. I'd love to hear more of your thoughts on that.

[SouBeachTalents]

Oh wow. You're pretty low on the 2015 Warriors. I'd love to hear more of your thoughts on that.

Like I said, I think I'm probably biased against them due to the fact they avoided all their legitimate threats in the conference (Spurs, OKC, LAC), and how unimpressive they looked in the Finals, where despite facing LeBron, they should have honestly won that series in 4-5 games. I'm curious, which title team from let's say 2012 on would you pick them to beat in a series h2h.

[Phoenix]

Oh wow. You're pretty low on the 2015 Warriors. I'd love to hear more of your thoughts on that.

Understanding that it's a game of matchups, the 2019 Raptors are better than the depleted 2015 Cavs finals team and the latter took the Warriors to 6. Really, out of the 5 times those Warriors went to the finals between 2015 and 2019, the only postseason they were this absolutely indomitable force was 2017. Their regular season dominance was always a half step to a full step ahead of their playoff showings, except 2017. Beyond that, as aforementioned the Cavs took them to 6 in 2015 without Kyrie/Love, OKC pretty much choked away beating them in the WCFs and then they choke away a 3-1 lead to the Cavs in the finals( I know I know, Curry wasn't 100%, Draymond suspenstion, etc etc yadda yadd). 2017 they obliterated the playoffs, only losing one game, and that needed the Cavs going nuclear from 3. 2018 they were possibly a CP3 injury and Harden game 7 brickfest from losing, and in 2019 a scrappy, starless Clippers squad took them to 6 in the early rounds and eventually are upended by Toronto in the finals( aided by injuries to KD and Klay, otherwise I think the Warriors take that series in 6).

[dankok8]

Like I said, I think I'm probably biased against them due to the fact they avoided all their legitimate threats in the conference (Spurs, OKC, LAC), and how unimpressive they were in the Finals wherem despite them facing LeBron, they should have honestly won that series in 4-5 games. I'm curious, which title team from let's say 2012 on would you pick them to beat in a series h2h.

That's interesting. The metrics say they would beat be favorites against anyone except the 2017 Warriors and maybe 2024 Celtics. You on the other hand have them not beating anyone since 2011. I tend to side with the numbers generally. Even in the PS, they looked quite dominant in 2015. They struggled against Cleveland the first three games then made adjustments and blew them to smithereens the last three games. Unimpressive maybe only for half the series.

That being said, I don't think they beat every title team apart from the 2017 Warriors because I do think they have match up issues against big, defensive teams. And some of the other teams are better in the PS than in the RS.

Would beat:

2012 Heat (3pt shooting would overwhelm scrambling Heat D)
2013 Heat (3pt shooting would overwhelm scrambling Heat D)
2022 Warriors (Just a worse team across the board than the 2015 version)
2023 Nuggets (Nuggets mediocre D couldn't stop them; Warriors have players that can stop everyone minus Jokic)

Unsure:

2014 Spurs (Better team on paper but Spurs looked very strong in the PS past the 1st round; wide confidence intervals on this Spurs team from solid title team to top 15 all time)
2016 Cavs (Better team on paper but Cavs go big like in 2015 but with Kyrie healthy means tough series)
2019 Raptors (Better team on paper but bad matchup for splash brothers; so big and long and can switch everything)
2020 Lakers (Better team on paper but size of Lebron, AD, Dwight etc. would be tough to deal with)
2021 Bucks (Better team on paper but again size and physicality of Bucks a problem)
2024 Celtics (Both super dominant teams in the RS; comes down to who hits more shots)

Would lose to:

2017 Warriors
2018 Warriors (Better team on paper but 2018 Warriors cruised in the RS)

[SouBeachTalents]

I'm shocked you have the 2024 Celtics as unsure, they're imo the best title team outside of the KD Warriors over that timeframe, and they absolutely have the personnel to make Curry's life a living hell in that series, 4 good-great perimeter defenders to throw at him at all times.

I know it's not an apples to apples comparison, but I'm also surprised you put the 2016 Cavs as unsure when they beat them the following season, and while it's purely speculative, there's a pretty high likelihood Kyrie swings the 2015 series if he plays.

The Heat obviously don't have close to the 3 point shooting the Warriors do, but I completely disagree with your assertion their defense would be overwhelmed. I actually think they match up very nicely with the Warriors on defense, the biggest question would be if they could still win without any of their stars having a reliable 3 point shot.

As for the rest, I think Giannis, AD & esp Jokic would be matchup nightmares for the Warriors, they could all live in the paint and bully their small ball lineup. And as you said, the Spurs reached a level of play the Warriors never showed in the playoffs.

Even 2022, a team I'm also relatively down on, I don't dispute the 2015 team would be the favorites, but I 100% believe if you put the 2015 Curry on that team, they lose in the Finals. The 2022 version was a grittier, more battle hardened version of himself, and I don't think the 2015 version of Curry who looked shook the majority of those Finals comes through, esp in Game 4, the way the 2022 version of Curry did.

Imo you base your analysis a little too much off metrics. I'm not saying to disregard them completely, but I feel like they don't give the whole story a lot of the time, and while it's more subjective, the eye test can tell you more than the metrics can. The Warriors very well may have been dominant in the regular season, but I just did not get that sense from them in the playoffs. They were green, it was their first deep playoff run together, and they just didn't quite seem up to the moment yet, Curry esp. While they could've still won, I do believe if Kyrie plays the Cavs likely win that series.

[dankok8]

Understanding that it's a game of matchups, the 2019 Raptors are better than the depleted 2015 Cavs finals team and the latter took the Warriors to 6. Really, out of the 5 times those Warriors went to the finals between 2015 and 2019, the only postseason they were this absolutely indomitable force was 2017. Their regular season dominance was always a half step to a full step ahead of their playoff showings, except 2017. Beyond that, as aforementioned the Cavs took them to 6 in 2015 without Kyrie/Love, OKC pretty much choked away beating them in the WCFs and then they choke away a 3-1 lead to the Cavs in the finals( I know I know, Curry wasn't 100%, Draymond suspenstion, etc etc yadda yadd). 2017 they obliterated the playoffs, only losing one game, and that needed the Cavs going nuclear from 3. 2018 they were possibly a CP3 injury and Harden game 7 brickfest from losing, and in 2019 a scrappy, starless Clippers squad took them to 6 in the early rounds and eventually are upended by Toronto in the finals( aided by injuries to KD and Klay, otherwise I think the Warriors take that series in 6).

In 2018 they had a flatly better PS then RS. I'd say the KD Warriors definitely kept their level up in the PS. As you said, in 2019 if KD was healthy, there is a good argument they win the title.

And yes I made this thread because I see the 2019 Raptors as a tough matchup. The 2015 Warriors are better in a vacuum but matchups dictate a lot.

[dankok8]

I'm shocked you have the 2024 Celtics as unsure, they're imo the best title team outside of the KD Warriors over that timeframe, and they absolutely have the personnel to make Curry's life a living hell in that series, 4 good-great perimeter defenders to throw at him at all times.

I don't know. The Celtics had really weak PS opposition. So their valuation range is pretty wide like the 2014 Spurs. I can see people saying they are a top 15 (even maybe top 10 team ever) but I can also see people saying top 40 and get away with it.

I know it's not an apples to apples comparison, but I'm also surprised you put the 2016 Cavs as unsure when they beat them the following season, and while it's purely speculative, there's a pretty high likelihood Kyrie swings the 2015 series if he plays.

Cavs did better without Kyrie in Game 2 and 3 than with him in Game 1. I don't think he swings it that much. Game 4-6 were pretty much all blowout losses. Kyrie's presence wouldn't swing those games. He helps them on O but hurts on D. You can't play both Kyrie and Delly.

The Heat obviously don't have close to the 3 point shooting the Warriors do, but I completely disagree with your assertion their defense would be overwhelmed. I actually think they match up very nicely with the Warriors on defense, the biggest question would be if they could still win without any of their stars having a reliable 3 point shot.

The Heatles struggled to defend against good teams in general. 2012 OKC, 2013 Spurs both gave them fits and the Warriors are much more difficult to stop. Even more off-ball movement with Steph/Klay. And they are kind of a soft team inside so they couldn't make the Warriors pay for playing their small ball lineups.

As for the rest, I think Giannis, AD & esp Jokic would be matchup nightmares for the Warriors, they could all live in the paint and bully their small ball lineup. And as you said, the Spurs reached a level of play the Warriors never showed in the playoffs.

The 2023 Nuggets are too weak on defense to win but 2020 Lakers and 2021 Bucks even though they are among weaker title teams would be coin tosses because of size and physicality.

Even 2022, a team I'm also relatively down on, I don't dispute the 2015 team would be the favorites, but I 100% believe if you put the 2015 Curry on that team, they lose in the Finals. The 2022 version was a grittier, more battle hardened version of himself, and I don't think the 2015 version of Curry who looked shook the majority of those Finals comes through, esp in Game 4, the way the 2022 version of Curry did.

Curry's struggles in the 2015 Finals are overblown to me. He wasn't transcendent but he was very good. 26/5/6 on +5 efficiency.

Imo you base your analysis a little too much off metrics. I'm not saying to disregard them completely, but I feel like they don't give the whole story a lot of the time, and while it's more subjective, the eye test can tell you more than the metrics can. The Warriors very well may have been dominant in the regular season, but I just did not get that sense from them in the playoffs. They were green, it was their first deep playoff run together, and they just didn't quite seem up to the moment yet, Curry esp. While they could've still won, I do believe if Kyrie plays the Cavs likely win that series.

Yea I can see them losing due to inexperience and lack of size/physicality. That's why I put a lot of those teams in the maybe pile. Still, I think you take it a bit further than I'm comfortable doing. They still beat their opposition without too many problems. Going 1-2 is legit criticism but then they reeled off a huge surge and won three straight.

[FKAri]

In 2018 they had a flatly better PS then RS. I'd say the KD Warriors definitely kept their level up in the PS. As you said, in 2019 if KD was healthy, there is a good argument they win the title.

And yes I made this thread because I see the 2019 Raptors as a tough matchup. The 2015 Warriors are better in a vacuum but matchups dictate a lot.

One thing to keep in mind is the adaptation by the league when it comes to understanding the Warriors offense and how to defend against it in 2019 compared to back in 2015. The death ball lineup with Dray at the 5 is a lot less of a trump card in 2019. Fast forward to today and almost every team has thrown out a lineup without a big and has experience in running an offense with it and also defending against it.

It's strange to say but in that sense it's almost like a comparisons from different eras.

[tpols]

2019 Raptors had a better team around Kawhi than the Warriors had around Curry. Siakam was world class when it mattered (he torched dray), and Kyle Lowry had the best playoff run of his career. Toronto had 6 players in double figures in playoff series. Klay and Dray certainly didn't show up in the Finals like Siakam and Lowry did. It took Iggy having to double almost triple his average for the warriors to win.

Raptors were stronger than the 2015 version but the 2016 Warriors were a bit of a different beast and definitely better than 2015 but ended up getting screwed by silver for gold ..er I mean money / ratings etc. 2016 Golden State Warriors vs 2019 Toronto Raptors would be more interesting.

[ArbitraryWater]

I dont think the 2015 Warriors were ready yet for that title under norma circumstances.

Still very green behind the ears.

[Axe]

The raps. Curry is ordinary without any bonafide all-star help.

[1987_Lakers]

2015 Warriors were pretty damn dominant, they carved teams up in the regular season. Some people still didn't accept them as title contenders because they were the new team on the block. I think experience was their real weakness, we saw them struggle vs an injured infested Cavs team with an experienced LeBron. You saw the Grizzlies give them some trouble in the playoffs.

I don't know who wins, but I would love to see that series. People sleep on how valuable Bogut was to that team, a piece they lost when they added Durant. Raptors were well constructed in their own right, and I would trust 2019 Kawhi over 2015 Curry in a series.