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Old 10-13-2012, 08:14 PM   #31
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Default Re: Will it be a tragedy if Romney is elected and is given credit for a econmic recover

Freedom to succeed

lol
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Old 10-13-2012, 08:31 PM   #32
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Default Re: Will it be a tragedy if Romney is elected and is given credit for a econmic recover

Quote:
Originally Posted by B-hoop


Just read about it, Hoover did the minimum he could because it was against his laissez-faire principles. Thats why he didn't win his reelection, people were tired of waiting for the economy to get better on its own.

FDR when elected then started to apply keinesian policies to try and solve the problem..

It's a myth that Hoover was a laissez-faire guy, and it befuddles me that people actually believe it. As President, Hoover himself didn't even pretend to be a market supporter. But nowadays he gets that label. It makes no sense.

Does this sound like a free market guy to you? From Hoover himself:

Quote:
We might have done nothing. That would have been utter ruin. Instead we met the situation with proposals to private business and to Congress of the most gigantic program of economic defense and counterattack ever evolved in the history of the Republic. We put it into action…. No government in Washington has hitherto considered that it held so broad a responsibility for leadership in such times…. For the first time in the history of depression, dividends, profits, and the cost of living, have been reduced before wages have suffered…. They were maintained until the cost of living had decreased and the profits had practically vanished. They are now the highest real wages in the world.

Creating new jobs and giving to the whole system a new breath of life; nothing has ever been devised in our history which has done more for … "the common run of men and women." Some of the reactionary economists urged that we should allow the liquidation to take its course until we had found bottom…. We determined that we would not follow the advice of the bitter-end liquidationists and see the whole body of debtors of the United States brought to bankruptcy and the savings of our people brought to destruction.[2]

Read this great article from historian/economist Murray Rothbard on the Herbert Hoover administration. You'll learn more reading this article than you did in all of 8th grade social studies, I'd wager:

http://mises.org/daily/2902

Last edited by joe : 10-13-2012 at 08:39 PM.
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Old 10-13-2012, 09:46 PM   #33
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Default Re: Will it be a tragedy if Romney is elected and is given credit for a econmic recover

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My worldview was challenged by economics, and my world view has changed quite a bit. I used to think minimum wage was righteous, now I realize it's an economic fallacy.
how so?
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Old 10-13-2012, 09:47 PM   #34
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Default Re: Will it be a tragedy if Romney is elected and is given credit for a econmic recover

Back to governments role, is this the time to cut corporate rates??? Being Canadian I can tell you our experience with cutting rates is companies holding on to the cash or giving it to share holders and not creating jobs . However, it can be said that creating jobs is not the mandate of corporations. Anyways isn't there not only a lack of demand in North America but globally as well, wouldn't that indicate that the money that would be transferred from governments to corporations would become "dead money". Shouldn't we instead be putting money into hard and soft infrastructure so we can eliminate future costs to the tax payers??????
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Old 10-13-2012, 09:55 PM   #35
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Default Austrain economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by joe
The Austrian predictions aren't from 2009, they've been predicting this for 30-40 years.

Peter Schiff who claims to follow Austrian economics and was an adviser to Ron Paul made such claims in 2009 and did use Zimbabwe as an example.

If they have been predicting it for 30-40 years, that actually doesn't seem to have much predictive value.

If I say in the next 40 years, the Chicago Bears are going to win the Super Bowl, that just doesn't seem to be too useful.

The link above is from a Krugman blog post where he accuses the Austrian of not being empirical, not learning from the evidence.

Quote:
the Austrian/Ron Paul types made some very strong predictions about inflation ó and rightly, given their model of how the world works. In their version of reality, it really isnít possible to triple the monetary base without dire effects on the price level. In my version of reality, of course, thatís not only possible but what the model predicts in a liquidity trap.

So since we did indeed triple the monetary base with nothing much happening to inflation, the right lesson to draw is that their model is all wrong. Unfortunately, I see no hint that anyone in that camp is prepared to consider that possibility.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joe
Once you start down this road of paper money and central banking, economic failure stops being a matter of "if" and become a matter of "when."

You do know there were economic failures before the Fed existed?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1857
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1884
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1893

One feature of them is they tended to be long lasting.
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Old 10-14-2012, 12:12 AM   #36
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Default Re: Will it be a tragedy if Romney is elected and is given credit for a econmic recover

Quote:
Originally Posted by joe
It's a myth that Hoover was a laissez-faire guy, and it befuddles me that people actually believe it. As President, Hoover himself didn't even pretend to be a market supporter. But nowadays he gets that label. It makes no sense.

Does this sound like a free market guy to you? From Hoover himself:



Read this great article from historian/economist Murray Rothbard on the Herbert Hoover administration. You'll learn more reading this article than you did in all of 8th grade social studies, I'd wager:

http://mises.org/daily/2902

I want you to point out to me where in that article it tells of one action of Hoover after 1929 where he went against laissez-faire in any important way. All i see is the writer bashing Hoover for being pro-labor during the 1920-1921 crisis.

Also, that is a pretty biased article, he quotes Hoover as being responsible for a plan on public works presented by a governor when there is no direct proof of it.

The article pretty much just try to prove that Hoover was not in favour of laissez-faire because of what he did before the Great Depression but shows no shred of evidence of that during his term as president in 1929-1932.

By the way the quote you used in your post was made during his bid for reelection when presidents will say anything they need to get reelected. If he had indeed done so much than the election probably wouldn't be so one-sided.
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Old 10-14-2012, 03:29 AM   #37
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Default Re: Will it be a tragedy if Romney is elected and is given credit for a econmic recover

Quote:
Originally Posted by B-hoop
I want you to point out to me where in that article it tells of one action of Hoover after 1929 where he went against laissez-faire in any important way. All i see is the writer bashing Hoover for being pro-labor during the 1920-1921 crisis.

Also, that is a pretty biased article, he quotes Hoover as being responsible for a plan on public works presented by a governor when there is no direct proof of it.

The article pretty much just try to prove that Hoover was not in favour of laissez-faire because of what he did before the Great Depression but shows no shred of evidence of that during his term as president in 1929-1932.

By the way the quote you used in your post was made during his bid for reelection when presidents will say anything they need to get reelected. If he had indeed done so much than the election probably wouldn't be so one-sided.
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/..._sings_hi.html The complete hands off approach is a myth.
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Old 10-14-2012, 10:52 PM   #38
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Default Re: Austrain economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinNYC
Peter Schiff who claims to follow Austrian economics and was an adviser to Ron Paul made such claims in 2009 and did use Zimbabwe as an example.

If they have been predicting it for 30-40 years, that actually doesn't seem to have much predictive value.

If I say in the next 40 years, the Chicago Bears are going to win the Super Bowl, that just doesn't seem to be too useful.

The link above is from a Krugman blog post where he accuses the Austrian of not being empirical, not learning from the evidence.


You do know there were economic failures before the Fed existed?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1857
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1884
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1893

One feature of them is they tended to be long lasting.

There's a lot in this post to respond to.

Economic failures before the Fed:

Most Americans don't realize that the Federal Reserve is not our first and only central bank. We did have central banking in the 1800's, and it caused economic problems. Furthermore, Austrians argue that in the 1800's, many of the panics were actually caused by deviations from the gold standard that occurred throughout the period.

Tom Woods (PhD historian, Austrian economics supporter) did a great speech on that topic: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxcjT8T3EGU


Quote:
If they have been predicting it for 30-40 years, that actually doesn't seem to have much predictive value.

If I say in the next 40 years, the Chicago Bears are going to win the Super Bowl, that just doesn't seem to be too useful.

Austrian business cycle theory does not supply the tools to make short-term predictions. It just doesn't.

But what it can provide, is an explanation for the very origin of the business cycle. They explain how it's central banking- not capitalism- that is the culprit. How federal reserve interventions distort the market, creating lines of mal-investment that infect the entire economy. How the "boom" is actually the problem, and the "bust" is actually the solution.

This very scenario has played out multiple times in American history Every Austrian economist believes it is happening again, right now, on a massive scale across the entire west. Greece, England, Canada, America.

That's a lot of information coming out of one theory. I'm not going to knock it for lacking short term prediction ability. Besides, how can you predict exactly when interest rates on US bonds will rise? Or exactly when the Chinese central bank will stop hoarding dollars? There's no basis for making short term predictions like that.
Quote:
the Austrian/Ron Paul types made some very strong predictions about inflation — and rightly, given their model of how the world works. In their version of reality, it really isn’t possible to triple the monetary base without dire effects on the price level. In my version of reality, of course, that’s not only possible but what the model predicts in a liquidity trap.

So since we did indeed triple the monetary base with nothing much happening to inflation, the right lesson to draw is that their model is all wrong. Unfortunately, I see no hint that anyone in that camp is prepared to consider that possibility.

I'm not an expert on this topic, but as far as I know, most of the money the Fed "prints" is being hoarded by central banks or quasi private banks, like Goldman Sacks. That money won't cause price inflation because it has not gotten into the real economy.

For example, if the Fed printed money and buried it underground, it wouldn't cause price inflation. Obviously. And that's essentially what happens when the Fed purchases assets from private banks. Only when the banks finally spend the money or lend it out, and the Treasury actually prints it, will price inflation occur.
Quote:
The link above is from a Krugman blog post where he accuses the Austrian of not being empirical, not learning from the evidence.

And Austrians accuse Paul Krugman of supporting a failed brand of economics that ignores both history and reality. He said she said.. it won't get us anywhere.

As far as Paul Krugman goes.. were you aware of this?:
Quote:
Austrian economist Bob Murphy has challenged Krugman to a public debate on Austrian vs. Keynesian business cycle theory. He has set up a campaign, which currently has raised $60,000 in pledges. If Krugman actually debates Murphy, then the money goes to a food bank in New York City. If Krugman never debates, no one's credit card is ever charged; people are only going to be charged for their pledge, when Krugman actually debates.

Should be a great debate, almost the exact same one that we're having. Too bad Krugman is either too arrogant or too scared to respond. $60,000 for homeless shelters for a 1 hour debate.. and Krugman won't do it. Hm.

http://krugmandebate.com/
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Old 10-14-2012, 11:08 PM   #39
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Default Re: Will it be a tragedy if Romney is elected and is given credit for a econmic recover

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clifton
how so?

How is minimum wage an economic fallacy, or how did my world view change?

Employers do not pay employees more money than the employees are actually earning for the company. If an employee only adds $5 worth of value, and the minimum wage is $7, the employer will look for ways around hiring un-skilled or young workers. They will cut jobs if they don't add value greater than the minimum wage. They'll fire people who aren't worth the cost.

The effect of this is that more and more teenagers and unskilled workers can't find jobs. In a free market, they would trade off their lack of experience for a lower wage, in hopes of gaining experience/skill and later have the ability to demand a higher wage. But now, it's harder to find that first job to really get your foot in the door.

I understand the intended effect of minimum wage, and I used to be a supporter of it. But it's an economic fallacy. It assumes that employers COULD pay low-skilled workers more, but they just don't because they're evil and greedy. So the government comes along, passes a law, and puts the monopoly man in his place. But the fact is, they pay them little because they just don't add that much value to the company. Raising the minimum wage hurts low skilled employees, it does not help them.

And my world view changed because of things like that^. I mean, I had been told pretty much the exact opposite all my life.. being that everyone I know is a Democrat, and that's the general line you're taught in school. It was shocking to learn the ins and outs of free markets.. pretty much the opposite of what I expected to hear.
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Old 10-14-2012, 11:34 PM   #40
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Default Re: Will it be a tragedy if Romney is elected and is given credit for a econmic recover

http://www.forbes.com/sites/modeledb...-minimum-wage/

^interesting blog post that provides a different way to think about the minimum wage
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Old 03-11-2013, 06:34 PM   #41
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Default Re: Will it be a tragedy if Romney is elected and is given credit for a econmic recover

bump, i know what im talking about.
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Old 03-11-2013, 06:49 PM   #42
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Default Re: Will it be a tragedy if Romney is elected and is given credit for a econmic recover

Quote:
Originally Posted by nathanjizzle
bump, i know what im talking about.
This seems as good a place as any to post this

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2013/03...ge-in-h/192979
Quote:
For Positive Jobs Report, Fox Cuts Coverage In Half
Fox News spent less than 11 minutes highlighting the February jobs report that showed the unemployment rate dropped to 7.7 percent, about half the time the network spent covering the August 2011 jobs report that indicated no net addition of jobs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' unemployment report for the month of February revealed that 236,000 jobs were added, causing the unemployment rate to fall from 7.9 to 7.7 percent. This marks the first time the unemployment rate has been below 7.8 percent since 2008, and the lowest unemployment rate during the entirety of the Obama presidency.

Despite the significance of this development in the labor market, Fox News has been noticeably quiet on the subject in their morning programs, especially when contrasted with how they have covered previous negative economic news. On September 2, 2011 when initial reports showed no net addition of jobs for the month of August, Fox discussed this negative news for roughly twice the amount of time as the positive news on March 8, when the February jobs report was released.

Furthermore, the majority of Fox's coverage discussing the drop in unemployment used the news as a foil to bring up unrelated indicators or downplay its significance.
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Old 03-11-2013, 06:58 PM   #43
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Default Re: Will it be a tragedy if Romney is elected and is given credit for a econmic recover

The funny thing is that on friday after the jobs report was released, I kept switching back and forth between MSNBC, FOX, and CNN to see how they would cover the news since it was very significant (240K added, lowest % in 4 years, all amid the sequester/fiscal cliff drama). Fox just seemed to briefly gloss over the report and even tried to turn it into a negative by saying that the #s did nothing but prove that the sequester was working and Obama was the president who cried wolf... even though this report obviously wouldn't show any affect, negative or positive, of the sequester because of the timing.

Hopefully the President can get the grand bargain he is working hard for and we have a long term solution for our fiscal situation. If that happens we could see a boom instead of a steady recovery. But judging by Paul Ryan still trying to repeal Obamacare, I think it will be an uphill climb to get the House Republicans to do anything besides waste everyone's time.
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Old 03-11-2013, 06:59 PM   #44
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Default Re: Will it be a tragedy if Romney is elected and is given credit for a econmic recover

Because we all were under the impression that Fox News is a legitimate source of information, Thank you KevinNYC, for enlightening us. Your copy paste "insight" is unmatched
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Old 03-11-2013, 07:26 PM   #45
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Default Re: Will it be a tragedy if Romney is elected and is given credit for a econmic recover

Quote:
Originally Posted by joe
As far as Paul Krugman goes.. were you aware of this?:
Quote:
Quote:
Austrian economist Bob Murphy has challenged Krugman to a public debate on Austrian vs. Keynesian business cycle theory. He has set up a campaign, which currently has raised $60,000 in pledges. If Krugman actually debates Murphy, then the money goes to a food bank in New York City. If Krugman never debates, no one's credit card is ever charged; people are only going to be charged for their pledge, when Krugman actually debates.

Should be a great debate, almost the exact same one that we're having. Too bad Krugman is either too arrogant or too scared to respond. $60,000 for homeless shelters for a 1 hour debate.. and Krugman won't do it. Hm.

http://krugmandebate.com/

Thanks for bringing me to the attention of Bob Murphy. In lieu of the debate with Krugman, Murphy did participate in an experiment that should shed some light on his economic model.

He made a bet in December 2009, that within the next three years inflation would hit double digits. It did not and he lost $500. He was then criticized by Berkeley economics professor Brad Delong for not rethinking his beliefs in light of the evidence.

Quote:
The most terrifying thing of all is that being completely, comprehensively, unmistakably, fundamentally, fatally, totally wrong has not led Robert Murphy to rethink or modify any of his analytical positions or ideological beliefs by even one iota.

I mean, one would expect an announcement on his weblog like: "I have been totally wrong, about everything. I am closing down this weblog for five years to avoid misleading readers while I intellectually retool. You will find me sitting at the feet of Paul Krguman, chanting 'om mani padme hum' until I achieve enlightenment."

If you look up robert murphy and inflation bet you see a lot blogs commenting on this.

In short both Krugman and Murphy staked out a claim as to what would happen in the near future based on their economic beliefs and the future turned out to validate Krugman's economic beliefs while doing the opposite for Murphy's. So what better example can we find of which economic model has a predictive ability.
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