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Old 01-12-2013, 02:37 PM   #16
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MMM
For a country that has such fiscal issues it surprises me that they spend money on things that are not cost effective while ignoring the crumbling infrastructure in their own nation. Doesn't really sound like a smart strategy for keeping America at the top spot.


empire building is expensive. tough to stay on top of things at home when you are out trying to control the rest of the world, just ask the romans.
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Old 01-12-2013, 05:17 PM   #17
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

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I think the reason we stayed is it's extremely difficult for any American general or president to admit we didn't unequivocably win the war. How you can anyone say we've lost when we're still fighting? (Would anyone know who Lindsay Graham is if not for the fact, this kind of thinking is very popular with the US media?)
yeah, i don't agree with this at all. by your logic, if at any point over the past eleven years the usa managed to reach a point of relative stability with a moderately trustworthy afghan government ally, they would have jumped on it to leave. i'm not sure if you believe that to be the case for both bush and obama admins but i think it's silly to believe either.

by your logic it wouldn't even have to be a truly sustainable stability. literally only enough to convince the american public that the place wasn't left in utter devastation and the troops left with their chins up.

seriously? that just strikes me as profoundly dubious reasoning, the sort you might see articulated by apologists for an apparently peaceful president that has done nothing to warrant that reputation. there clearly have to be more significant geopolitical reasons for staying than that.


as for you second assertion.... again, what? the war has pretty much lost all credibility as far as i can measure. remember in 08, when the two notable presidential nominees had more or less the same position on afghanistan? because it was the just war? well look at the same conversation now. troops are still fighting. does the public really believe they can achieve even limited victory in afghanistan by 2014? i guess i don't really know, you live down there and i don't, but it seemed the public climate had significantly changed in those four years
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Old 01-12-2013, 05:37 PM   #18
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

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Are you telling me, it's not already as we speak a giant waste of time and resources?
of course it is. and you're right, you shouldn't take my use of the word 'turn' to imply that staying in afghanistan can somehow make the entire enterprise a worthwhile one for the american taxpayer. nothing can make that so. the whole operation, even when the coin strategy was being marketed as a success a few years ago, has been a fiscal sinkhole without much hope for real victory. but it's not been a complete waste of time for everybody... the fact that along with iraq it basically surrounds iran makes it incredibly important given the current thrust of american foreign policy and israeli posturing. and additionally its a buffer against an increasingly hostile pakistan.

i don't really know enough to give a real list of institutions that have benefited from the continuation of the war but if its still going on, my position is that it's clearly in the interest of somebody. pentagon, high tech industry, the increasingly global cia, etc. the usual suspects. vague yeah, but that's my alternative position to your belief that two presidents have only refused to withdraw for fear of appearing on the world stage with their tail between their legs. my point is that for those with vested interests in continuing military presence in afghanistan, a complete abandonment would make all those years and all that money 'a waste'. whereas it's already a waste for the american taxpayer.
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Old 01-12-2013, 06:08 PM   #19
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nanners
empire building is expensive. tough to stay on top of things at home when you are out trying to control the rest of the world, just ask the romans.



If the U.S. didn't have an immense geographical advantage, the 'vikings' would have already raped and pillaged this empire. I mean, imagine if the United States was located in mainland Asia.
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Old 01-12-2013, 06:19 PM   #20
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

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Originally Posted by Cangri
OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA!!!!

Give him a second Nobel Peace Prize!!!!!
I have to agree, the Nobel made no sense. I bet in private Obama was like, "The ****? LOL."
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Old 01-12-2013, 07:29 PM   #21
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

Five years from now it'll be Terrorist Disneyland again. The extremist and tribal Afghanis and Pakistanis couldn't give a f*ck less what Karzai agrees to.
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Old 01-12-2013, 08:05 PM   #22
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MMM
Are you asking how is it more unstable than Afghanistan??? Because it isn't

or

Are you asking how specifically is Pakistan more unstable now compared to a few years ago???


Well like 5 years ago, they assassinated an ex-prime minister. In 1999 there was a military coup.
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Old 01-13-2013, 01:15 AM   #23
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RidonKs
yeah, i don't agree with this at all. by your logic, if at any point over the past eleven years the usa managed to reach a point of relative stability with a moderately trustworthy afghan government ally, they would have jumped on it to leave. i'm not sure if you believe that to be the case for both bush and obama admins but i think it's silly to believe either.

by your logic it wouldn't even have to be a truly sustainable stability. literally only enough to convince the american public that the place wasn't left in utter devastation and the troops left with their chins up.

seriously? that just strikes me as profoundly dubious reasoning, the sort you might see articulated by apologists for an apparently peaceful president that has done nothing to warrant that reputation. there clearly have to be more significant geopolitical reasons for staying than that.

I'm not following you here. I think we might be talking about different things. Are you talking about keeping a military base there? Because I consider the 1991 Gulf War over even though we have a base in Kuwait.

What I was talking about is that US presidents have great difficulty pulling out combat forces and ending wars that are not clear cut victories. They would prefer to kick the can down the road and have the next president have the problem.

there clearly have to be more significant geopolitical reasons for staying than that.

If we had gotten OBL in say 2005 and the rest of Afghan war went out about the same as it's been going, do you think we would still be there? I think there are significant domestic political reasons presidents stay. You've heard this story about LBJ?
Quote:
In his recent biography of Lyndon Johnson, Flawed Giant, Robert Dallek writes, “During a private conversation with some reporters who pressed him to explain why we were in Vietnam, Johnson lost his patience. According to Arthur Goldberg, LBJ unzipped his fly, drew out his substantial organ and declared, ‘This is why!’”
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Old 01-13-2013, 01:33 AM   #24
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

Tom Ricks's blog has a really interesting read on Afghanistan. A British officer who served three tours in Afghanistan just wrote a book with some new thinking on counterinsurgency, that we need to start thinking about using force to ensure political outcomes and not military outcomes, such as "won/lost." He says we need to move past such binary outcomes.

Quote:
Emile Simpson's core observation on the Afghan war is that when war is simply violent politics, one shouldn't expect it to end, because politics doesn't end. As he writes in his book, "The outcomes of contemporary conflicts are often better understood as constant evolutions of how power is configured." (P. 2)

Once you see the conflict in Afghanistan as political at its core, then just talking about the enemy as a unitary force makes no sense. For example, when in 2005 Helmand's provincial governor was ousted from office and so could not pay his followers, he sent them to work for the Taliban, which was hiring. "Akhundzada and his men did not ‘change sides'; they remained on their own side." (P. 44)

Seeing military action through a political lens, as he advocates throughout the book, also puts coalition operations in a different light. Wresting control of Kandahar city from the Taliban might seem to make military sense if it is the enemy's center of gravity, he notes. But think of it instead as a political problem. "In political terms, to have identified Kandahar city as the decisive point was a bold move; however, for a political consultant in a US presidential election, it would be like the Democratic Party investing massive resources in trying to win Texas."

Simpson has a guest post where he says this about how we need to think about the Afghan war today.
Quote:
Why is the conflict not likely to produce a binary outcome? {the Taliban will return or they won't return.}The ‘Taliban' is a franchise movement; most of its field commanders fight for their own self-interest, hence why many simultaneously have connections into the Afghan Government. The dynamics of the conflict are thus kaleidoscopic, with actors competing vis-à-vis one another, not polarised. The bulk of the coalition leaving will accelerate the kaleidoscopic dynamic, as we are the main object against which the Taliban ‘franchise' can define itself to maintain its cohesion (i.e. less cohesion means more self-interested dynamics). The Soviet experience of transition in 1988-90 supports this analysis.

The likelihood is the Afghan Government will maintain the cities and the roads only (they don't have the logistical capability or political will to hold more), but neither do the insurgents have the combat power, logistics, or command structure to mass, take over a whole city, and hold it. This will create (and is already creating) a ‘core' area held by the Afghan Government and a ‘peripheral' zone beyond. What will result is a patchwork of allegiances, with some villages, and even broad remote areas, controlled by power brokers linked to the insurgency, others to the Afghan Government, or more likely, linked to both. By maintaining a narrative that emphasises a binary outcome, we will be perceived as having failed, when in reality the Afghan Government controls the key areas, and over time, will make pragmatic arrangements with those who control the periphery to maintain relative stability in Afghanistan.

b. We should not invest any coalition credibility in holding the peripheral areas: Over the next three years, the Taliban flag may go up in some towns and villages. In our current narrative, that will be seen as a major victory for them. In reality, to control dusty villages on the periphery, and even remote district centres, means little. We need to adjust our narrative so people expect that, and when it happens, people believe us when, legitimately, we point out that this is insignificant. By so adjusting the narrative, we take pressure off the Afghans to hold the peripheral areas, which they do not want to, only being there because they perceive it as a condition for us giving them support. We also take the initiative away from insurgents by recognising that this is a war for political more than physical space: insurgents are attention seekers -- they want us to react to a provocative flag raising because by reacting we show the world that they matter -- should they raise a flag in a forlorn district centre and we appear neither to look nor care, they have a serious problem.

c. The narrative needs to allow for maintaining some (but significantly less than today) coalition combat power in Afghanistan beyond 2014: This is the insurance policy that ensures the Afghan Government does not lose the cities and roads. The model should be in extremis back up to the Afghan security forces (airpower based, with boots on the ground as a last resort). This is critical, as the perception (amongst the insurgency, the Afghan people, the Afghan Government itself, and international audiences) that the Afghan security forces will hold the core areas will create space for de facto political settlements on the ground..... the narrative now needs to emphasise Afghan sovereignty:

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Old 01-13-2013, 03:49 PM   #25
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

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Originally Posted by KevinNYC
I'm not following you here. I think we might be talking about different things. Are you talking about keeping a military base there? Because I consider the 1991 Gulf War over even though we have a base in Kuwait.

What I was talking about is that US presidents have great difficulty pulling out combat forces and ending wars that are not clear cut victories. They would prefer to kick the can down the road and have the next president have the problem.

there clearly have to be more significant geopolitical reasons for staying than that.

If we had gotten OBL in say 2005 and the rest of Afghan war went out about the same as it's been going, do you think we would still be there? I think there are significant domestic political reasons presidents stay. You've heard this story about LBJ?
The main reasons we are still in the middle east are for geopolitical reasons. That's it. Your domestic political reasons fall second to the recognition that an allied stable and prosperous Afghanistan is crucial to influence in the middle east and cheap future access to the cornucopia of resources that is Afghanistan.
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Old 01-13-2013, 08:48 PM   #26
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

Those troops will be replaced by private contractors that US government will pay for at triple the cost of a regular soldier.
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Old 01-13-2013, 08:49 PM   #27
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

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Originally Posted by Jello
The main reasons we are still in the middle east are for geopolitical reasons. That's it. Your domestic political reasons fall second to the recognition that an allied stable and prosperous Afghanistan is crucial to influence in the middle east and cheap future access to the cornucopia of resources that is Afghanistan.

Yeah, that dude is incredibly naive. Obama can do no wrong!
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Old 01-13-2013, 11:08 PM   #28
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jello
The main reasons we are still in the middle east are for geopolitical reasons. That's it. Your domestic political reasons fall second to the recognition that an allied stable and prosperous Afghanistan is crucial to influence in the middle east and cheap future access to the cornucopia of resources that is Afghanistan.

Um, you can be in the Middle East without being in Afghanistan. As we are.

We don't need to be in Afghanistan to be in the Middle East.

In fact, Afghanistan is tradtionally not considered part of the Middle East. From Wikipedia

Quote:
Traditional definition of the Middle East
Bahrain
Cyprus
Egypt
Iran
Iraq
Iraqi Kurdistan (autonomy within Iraq)
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Northern Cyprus (not recognized)
Oman
State of Palestine (non-member state)
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Yemen

Some people use greater middle east as a term and include Afghanistan, but it is more correctly considered part of Central Asia. (And the US already has a military presence in Central Asia.

I totally disagree that Afghanistan is crucial and I even more strongly disagree that it will be stable, prosperous or allied with the US in my lifetime.

It's laughable to refer to Afghanistan as a cornucopia of anything other than heroin. It's officially a "least developed country." 40% of the country survives on less than a dollar a day. Yeah, there's a lot minerals in the ground, but have fun getting them out of there because the country is mountainous, landlocked and the culture is extremely warlike and hostile to foreigners and has absolutely no money of its own to invest in infrastructure. Sounds like the exact place I would like to invest.
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Old 01-13-2013, 11:17 PM   #29
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

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Originally Posted by Balla_Status
Yeah, that dude is incredibly naive. Obama can do no wrong!

Um, is your reading comprehension really poor? Even after I bolded all the parts that showed our "surge" into Afghanistan under Obama went wrong and has nothing to show for it?

Have I been giving you too much credit as a reasonably intelligent and reasonably intellectually honest person?
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Old 01-13-2013, 11:18 PM   #30
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Default Re: We're getting out of Afghanistan.

Cleaning up another one of Bush's disasters.
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