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Old 05-23-2018, 08:46 AM   #61
DukeDelonte13
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Default Re: Browns 1st and 4th pick

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Originally Posted by Nanners
I sincerely doubt that PFF or any other analytics driven entity was arguing in favor of Ward over Chubb. Please feel free to link me any articles or data that proves otherwise. I would think that anybody who is interested in analytics would be aware of the supreme importance of pass rushing on defense. A great pass rush will mask all sorts of defensive problems, but a great secondary can only prolong the inevitable if they arent supported by a decent pass rush.

If the Browns had Ward 9th and Chubb 13th, then why would they take Ward with the 4th pick? If he was 9th doesnt that mean that 8 guys were ranked ahead of him, and several of them would have been available at that 4th pick.

Anyway, regardless of the browns internal rankings, assuming two elite talents the pass rusher is always more valuable than the corner based soley on positional value and scarcity. High end pass rushers influence the game more than high end corners, and are therefore more valuable and more difficult to acquire than equivalent corners.

I remember reading something that Chubb had subpar agility for an elite pass rusher prospect.. Do I buy that that was the reason Browns passed on him? Nope.

I think Browns just went with a position of need more than BPA. Garrett and Ogbah are good and their secondary is weak. Gotta have a good secondary to increase the effectiveness of the pass rush.

Maybe they just didn't see chubb as a can't miss prospect and rolled the dice on prospect that played a position of more need. I don't know.

Browns have been bitten in the ass so many times in the draft i'm numb. Hope it doesn't happen again but if it does its just business as usual.
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Old 05-23-2018, 09:09 AM   #62
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Default Re: Browns 1st and 4th pick

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Originally Posted by DukeDelonte13
I remember reading something that Chubb had subpar agility for an elite pass rusher prospect.. Do I buy that that was the reason Browns passed on him? Nope.

I think Browns just went with a position of need more than BPA. Garrett and Ogbah are good and their secondary is weak. Gotta have a good secondary to increase the effectiveness of the pass rush.

Maybe they just didn't see chubb as a can't miss prospect and rolled the dice on prospect that played a position of more need. I don't know.

Browns have been bitten in the ass so many times in the draft i'm numb. Hope it doesn't happen again but if it does its just business as usual.

The fact that Garrett is good (who is ogbah lol) doesnt change the fact that pass rushers are more valuable and more important than corners. The Eagles just won the superbowl vs the best QB of all time with a team that was virtually all pass rush and zero secondary.

One glance at a list of recent superbowl winners and playoff teams in general is all it takes to prove the value of pass rushing. Aside from Atlanta vs NE (and perhaps NO vs IND in 2009), 8 or 9 out of the last 10 Superbowl champs featured some of the best pass rushes in the league.

I dont watch much college football, but from what I have seen Chubb was the top rated pass rusher for a good reason.

Even if the Browns decided that corners were vastly more needed than pass rushers (which would be stupid), drafting on supposed "need" is asanine when your team is a complete trainwreck from top to bottom.

Anyway, of course the Browns are going to be bitten in the ass again. Fucking up this badly for this many years, despite a million different coaches and quarterbacks, shows that the problem is not a coach or a GM but something inherent to the browns. Its not hard to see the real problem, Jimmy Haslam is one of the absolute worst owners in sports, and every year his fingerprints are all over the perpetual turd of a team playing in cleveland. Much like the Knicks with Dolan, the Browns will be trapped in mediocrity or worse until they get an ownership group that isnt completely retarded.

Last edited by Nanners : 05-23-2018 at 09:15 AM.
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Old 05-23-2018, 10:34 AM   #63
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Default Re: Browns 1st and 4th pick

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nanners
The fact that Garrett is good (who is ogbah lol) doesnt change the fact that pass rushers are more valuable and more important than corners. The Eagles just won the superbowl vs the best QB of all time with a team that was virtually all pass rush and zero secondary.

One glance at a list of recent superbowl winners and playoff teams in general is all it takes to prove the value of pass rushing. Aside from Atlanta vs NE (and perhaps NO vs IND in 2009), 8 or 9 out of the last 10 Superbowl champs featured some of the best pass rushes in the league.

I dont watch much college football, but from what I have seen Chubb was the top rated pass rusher for a good reason.

Even if the Browns decided that corners were vastly more needed than pass rushers (which would be stupid), drafting on supposed "need" is asanine when your team is a complete trainwreck from top to bottom.

Anyway, of course the Browns are going to be bitten in the ass again. Fucking up this badly for this many years, despite a million different coaches and quarterbacks, shows that the problem is not a coach or a GM but something inherent to the browns. Its not hard to see the real problem, Jimmy Haslam is one of the absolute worst owners in sports, and every year his fingerprints are all over the perpetual turd of a team playing in cleveland. Much like the Knicks with Dolan, the Browns will be trapped in mediocrity or worse until they get an ownership group that isnt completely retarded.

We don't know if they f*cked this one up until at least a couple of games are played, but I totally agree that haslam is the problem. Haslam is impatient, a meddler, a too concerned with the public's perception of the team's operation. Cleveland has a terrible local media group that covers the Browns that seeks to amplify every mistake and stir up as much drama as possible.
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Old 05-23-2018, 10:39 AM   #64
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Default Re: Browns 1st and 4th pick

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Originally Posted by DukeDelonte13
We don't know if they f*cked this one up until at least a couple of games are played, but I totally agree that haslam is the problem. Haslam is impatient, a meddler, a too concerned with the public's perception of the team's operation. Cleveland has a terrible local media group that covers the Browns that seeks to amplify every mistake and stir up as much drama as possible.

Having a shit owner is probably the biggest curse in all of sports. Every other aspect of the team can be changed or fixed, but a shitty owner will remain indefinitely (unless they go full Donald Sterling or something).
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Old 05-24-2018, 08:27 PM   #65
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Default Re: Browns 1st and 4th pick

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nanners
I sincerely doubt that PFF or any other analytics driven entity was arguing in favor of Ward over Chubb. Please feel free to link me any articles or data that proves otherwise.

Ask and ye shall receive. Again, these aren't my words. I'm just telling you what PFF said after the draft...




Steve Palazzolo, PFF Analyst:
"With the No. 4 pick, they go with Denzel Ward out of Ohio State, and this is one, Sam, where I think the debate or the expected pick here was Bradley Chubb, the defensive end out of NC State. And, when they went with Denzel Ward I thought it was a great pick.

"Ward was actually higher than Bradley Chubb on our big board. The reason being is, first off, corners are just a little bit more valuable than pass-rushers at the next level and there was some question marks about Chubb and his ability to maybe translate as an elite pass-rusher at the next level.

"I love this pick for Denzel Ward."

Sam Monson, PFF Analyst:

"... and even if he had been the sure-fire elite pass-rusher that everybody else thinks Bradley Chubb is, I think it still would've been the smart decision to take Denzel Ward at 4 because cornerback is more valuable than edge rusher.

"Logically, that makes sense. When you think about it, even if a pass-rusher doesn't get home and he's stoned by the offensive tackle, the cornerback can still fix that on the back end. When the ball arrives, he can break it up, he can intercept it. He can prevent that from becoming a big play.

"If the same thing happens on the back-end and if the cornerback screws up, there's nobody fixing that. It's a touchdown. It's game over.

"So, cornerback is the more valuable part when it comes to coverage than pass-rush is because there's no last line of defense. That is the guy that makes the difference between big plays and not.

"I think getting a shut-down corner is absolutely the smartest move they could make."


Palazzolo:

"Yeah, Ward is a fantastic player, great final season in PFF grading and I just love his combination of speed and quickness. You just don't see a lot of guys who run 4.3 who have the type of lateral agility and footwork that Ward brings to the table.

"I know there are some question marks about his height and he's a sub-6-foot corner. The NFL has been trending that way in this draft. They just drafted a whole bunch of sub-6-foot corners in the first round with Ward being the best out of that group.

"And, look, I just think he plays bigger than that height. He knows how to play through the ball. The speed and the quickness that he brings to the table make him the top pure man coverage corner in this draft.





Sam:

"The bottom line is in the numbers. If you look at his coverage numbers in college they are absolutely incredible. Over the last two seasons he allowed 35% of passes sent his way to be caught. You think about college quarterbacks completing 65%, 70% of their passes.

"Throwing at Denzel Ward, that pretty much halves. That's incredible. He had seven games last season in which he did not allow a catch. Nothing. No catches. Shut down corner in seven games over the season. Those are incredible numbers, even if the job is going to get harder at the National Football League level, that still suggests he is going to be a lock-down guy and that makes that #4 selection so smart.




Steve:

"The height does show up every now and again against bigger receivers, but it is not enough to knock him down. I love the pick at #4."


Cleveland Browns NFL Draft Recap | PFF



Here is Denzel Ward's complete PFF Scouting Report Profile



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Old 05-24-2018, 08:56 PM   #66
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Default Re: Browns 1st and 4th pick

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Originally Posted by Nanners
who is ogbah lol
He was the 32nd overall pick in the 2016 draft out of Oklahoma State and showed flashes of being really good once he took over as the full-time top edge-rusher on the team about midway through his rookie season.

However, he got hurt last year in the 10th game of the season and, if you recall, Myles didn't play for the first time until Week 5, so they had limited time together in 2017. But, when they were on the field together and especially before Jamie Collins got hurt too, the front-seven looked really good.

Obviously, when you've only played 25 games for the worst team of all-time, people aren't going to know who the hell you are. I get that. But, he has looked like he could become a legitimately good player.

Here's a quick rookie video if you're curious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w35RDG-DumU
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Old 06-03-2018, 06:46 AM   #67
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Default Re: Browns 1st and 4th pick

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Originally Posted by RedBlackAttack
He was the 32nd overall pick in the 2016 draft out of Oklahoma State and showed flashes of being really good once he took over as the full-time top edge-rusher on the team about midway through his rookie season.

However, he got hurt last year in the 10th game of the season and, if you recall, Myles didn't play for the first time until Week 5, so they had limited time together in 2017. But, when they were on the field together and especially before Jamie Collins got hurt too, the front-seven looked really good.

Obviously, when you've only played 25 games for the worst team of all-time, people aren't going to know who the hell you are. I get that. But, he has looked like he could become a legitimately good player.

Here's a quick rookie video if you're curious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w35RDG-DumU

Thanks for the link, he def looks like a promising rusher in that video.

In regard to my comment that "nobody was arguing in favor of Ward over Chubb", I was referring to the discussions that were taking place prior to the draft. Its one thing for a pundit to look back in hindsight and say that the Ward pick makes sense, its another thing entirely to advocate for Ward as a top 5 pick ahead of Chubb prior to the draft taking place. When I said nobody was arguing in favor of Ward over Chubb, thats what I meant.

Anyway, the fact that Ogbah looks promising is even more of a reason to take Chubb IMO. The Eagles team that just won the superbowl was absolutely loaded with pass rushers, so loaded that studs like Chris Long and Derek Barnett werent even starters. If you want to have a strong pass rush in the 4th quarter with the game on the line, you need to have enough rushers to let you rotate fresh guys into the game.

According to Football Outsiders, slightly more than 70 percent of four-down series were converted for a first down or a touchdown in 2016. However, just one out of every six offensive drives (16 percent) in which the quarterback was sacked eventually got another set of downs. One big part of the reason that sacks kill drives so well is because there is an ~18% chance of causing a fumble every time a sack occurs, and on the play immediately following a sack the average QB rating is approx 20 points lower than their season average. Each sack ends up saving a team 1.75 points (it also puts the defense into very favorable down-and-distance situations for the next play or two). Even if the your rushers arent getting sacks, simply hurrying and hitting the QB takes them out of their comfort zone mentally and physically and has a huge impact on the game. Interceptions are much more likely to occur under pressure (3.2 percent of attempts in 2016) than when the quarterback had a clean pocket (1.9 percent). Ultimately what really matters is that rushing creates turnovers, and turnover ratio is by far the most reliable predictor of who will win a game. Last year the Browns were worst in the league with a turnover margin of -28, which was 11 worse than the #31 team... the Browns desperately need turnovers.

No doubt its important to have good corners, but a great pass rush can make bad corners look good. The opposite is not really true, given a little time in a clean pocket, a good QB will typically find a hole in a great secondary. The vast majority of defensive backs that are considered to be elite have been helped by a strong pass rush. Revis at his peak was getting help from a great Jets defensive line and a coach that emphasized rushing. Harris, Talib and Ward all benefitted from a fantastic rush in Denver. A few years ago when the Seahawks legion of boom was at its peak, they arguably had the best front 7 in the league. Xavier Rhodes in Minny is supported by a monster pass rush and a great defensive coach. Bouye and Ramsey have a great pass rush in Jacksonville. In contrast to all this, there are also guys like Patrick Peterson, a fantastic corner that allowed ~90 passer rating last year because he is getting very little help.

Last edited by Nanners : 06-03-2018 at 07:22 AM.
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Old 06-03-2018, 07:14 PM   #68
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Default Re: Browns 1st and 4th pick

Maybe I'm forgetting these great pass rusher a but I don't think. Who were these great pass rushers helping Revis in his prime? The only guy I can remember is Calvin Pryor and nobody would ever consider him a big time pass rusher.
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Old 06-04-2018, 12:41 PM   #69
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Default Re: Browns 1st and 4th pick

supposedly Ward has looked great at OTA's covering Josh Gordon.

Now i know it's just OTAs... but it's been a long long time since the Browns had any first rounder look good at anything.


Really hyped for the season to start, and of course i'm going to be out of the country for the first two preseason games.
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Old 06-04-2018, 06:20 PM   #70
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Default Re: Browns 1st and 4th pick

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Originally Posted by Carbine
Maybe I'm forgetting these great pass rusher a but I don't think. Who were these great pass rushers helping Revis in his prime? The only guy I can remember is Calvin Pryor and nobody would ever consider him a big time pass rusher.

i suppose the jets didnt really have any one single rusher that was all that good, but they had one of the highest blitz rates in the league and it seemed like as a unit they got good pressure.

Last edited by Nanners : 06-04-2018 at 06:24 PM.
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