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Old 12-23-2014, 11:35 AM   #1
KevinNYC
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Default US: strongest growth in 11 years

Revised GDP numbers: 5% growth in the third quarter
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The U.S. economy posted its strongest growth in 11 years during the third quarter, supported by robust consumer spending and business investment.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5% in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was up from the second quarter’s growth rate of 4.6% and the strongest pace since the third quarter of 2003, when GDP grew at a 6.9% pace......

“There is a positive feedback loop going on at the moment,” Mike Jakeman, global analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note. “Job creation is running at the strongest rate for 15 years. More people in work means more income, which means more private spending, which means more business investment, which means more hiring.”
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Old 12-23-2014, 11:37 AM   #2
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

The revised numbers were higher than expected and this drove the stock market over 18,000.

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U.S. stocks rose Tuesday, carrying the Dow industrials above 18000 for the first time, after data showed the American economy posted its strongest growth in more than a decade.

The Dow’s crossing of 18000 is the latest milestone in the nearly six-year bull market. A close above 18,000 on Tuesday would mark the fifth-quickest 1,000 point rise for the blue-chip index. The fastest 1,000-point rise was in 1999, when the Dow jumped to 11,000 in just 24 trading days. Going into Tuesday’s rally, it has been 119 trading days since the blue chips broke 17000.
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Old 12-23-2014, 11:42 AM   #3
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

You guys are killing it and you don't rely on anything in particular, like some countries rely on oil. So a low crude price is a drop in the bucket.
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Old 12-23-2014, 11:45 AM   #4
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

go america, we got this for the next 500 years, until aliens take over.
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Old 12-23-2014, 11:55 AM   #5
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

Quote:
Originally Posted by Velocirap31
You guys are killing it and you don't rely on anything in particular, like some countries rely on oil. So a low crude price is a drop in the bucket.
We rely on oil regionally, but not nationally.

It's more than a drop in a bucket, a drop in the price of oil should be an overall boon to the economy. If business and households pay less to heat their homes and transport themselves/their products, more money is left for other spending.

Just saw this about this recovery. Business investment is back higher than it was prior to the crash. Housing is still a drag, but businesses are growing.



I'm hoping this keeps going and we see more jobs in 2015 AND higher wages to existing jobs.
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Old 12-23-2014, 11:58 AM   #6
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

This is probably a good time for the US to raise it's minimum wage.
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:03 PM   #7
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

Quote:
Gas prices continue to drop on a daily basis. In fact, the price of gas has fallen for 89 consecutive days.
The streak, the longest on record according to AAA, has shaved nearly $1 off the national average price of regular gas, taking it to $2.38 a gallon for the first time in five years. September 25 was the last day prices were higher for drivers. That day they increased by only a tenth of a cent. Prices have tumbled 36% since the high of the year, which was back in late April.
wow
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:16 PM   #8
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

It's amazing to me that Kevin wants to take a single GDP print and try to paint a picture. It's a misleading one. The economy is supposed to get better after a recession. It's a cycle. Well there are a few things. Buying up treasuries and toxic securitized products of banks balance sheets is a win for the banks. Zero interest rates for a half a decade is a win for companies that can finance debt on the cheap. It's also a win for the gov't who can borrow without interest. Growth should be up, there is a reason it is called 'expansionary monetary policy cause it is supposed to expand the economy.

It's not really a win for the average American though. No real wage growth for a half decade, first time home buyers not entering the market as they are tied up with student debt, and an increasing wage gap all spell trouble for the middle class.Which... if I recall... is what we were talking about in 2008.... no? Main Street versus those Fat Cats on Wall Street... right? Funny how that has changed. Also.... Q1 GDP was a negative print of 2% so it isn't all on the up and up. This is a great print for the US economy... but let's just look back to last year or the year prior. We are mulling along at a 2% growth rate which for a recovery after a recession is pretty unusual.... especially considering the historical accommodative policies by the FED. We've had GDP growth at 4-4.5% for a quarter before. It's just a quarter. Don't post links or use quotes from those links, Kevin. Use your thoughts, pal.
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Old 12-23-2014, 02:08 PM   #9
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

Quote:
Originally Posted by magnax1
Obama has basically nothing to do with this, let alone the whole economy.
Turning this into a political thread
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Old 12-23-2014, 02:18 PM   #10
The Real JW
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

When should I begin shorting the Dow stocks?
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Old 12-23-2014, 02:50 PM   #11
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

Quote:
Originally Posted by longhornfan1234
It's amazing to me that Kevin wants to take a single GDP print and try to paint a picture. It's a misleading one. The economy is supposed to get better after a recession. It's a cycle. Well there are a few things. Buying up treasuries and toxic securitized products of banks balance sheets is a win for the banks. Zero interest rates for a half a decade is a win for companies that can finance debt on the cheap. It's also a win for the gov't who can borrow without interest. Growth should be up, there is a reason it is called 'expansionary monetary policy cause it is supposed to expand the economy.

It's not really a win for the average American though. No real wage growth for a half decade, first time home buyers not entering the market as they are tied up with student debt, and an increasing wage gap all spell trouble for the middle class.Which... if I recall... is what we were talking about in 2008.... no? Main Street versus those Fat Cats on Wall Street... right? Funny how that has changed. Also.... Q1 GDP was a negative print of 2% so it isn't all on the up and up. This is a great print for the US economy... but let's just look back to last year or the year prior. We are mulling along at a 2% growth rate which for a recovery after a recession is pretty unusual.... especially considering the historical accommodative policies by the FED. We've had GDP growth at 4-4.5% for a quarter before. It's just a quarter. Don't post links or use quotes from those links, Kevin. Use your thoughts, pal.

Mr. Dunning–Kruger is heard from. Jesus Christ, what a load of shit this is.

[quote=longhornfan1234]Yes. I did pick a GDP point, because
A. GDP is an indicator of the whole economy and
B. The is the largest growth of the previous 45 quarters. So it's not just a single point. It's a comparison of 45 quarters.

Quote:
Originally Posted by longhornfan1234
The economy is supposed to get better after a recession. It's a cycle.
Tell that to Europe.

Are you pretending the 2007-2009 crisis was a mere recession? Are you forgetting all those folks pretending we were heading for catastrophe? Forgetting that Romney promised the employment rate would be where it is today IN Jan 2017 if was elected?. Pretending that the ACA would kill jobs in the us. Now that it's happening, it ain't not thing.


Quote:
Originally Posted by longhornfan1234
Well there are a few things. Buying up treasuries and toxic securitized products of banks balance sheets is a win for the banks. Zero interest rates for a half a decade is a win for companies that can finance debt on the cheap. It's also a win for the gov't who can borrow without interest. Growth should be up, there is a reason it is called 'expansionary monetary policy cause it is supposed to expand the economy.
Um, did you miss the news that the government made money by buying up toxic securities? The last of the major bailouts was closed out this week.
So the TARP and the bailouts, not only stabilized the economy and stopped the the financial crisis from cratering even more, the government made billions in profits. TARP and bailouts benefitted the entire economy, not just the banks. And remember this was started under Bush and then continued under Obama. Now that the numbers are in anyone who thinks the bailouts were a complete failure or a mere giveaway is living in the past. Paulson and Bernanke are due for a little reputation enhancement.

Quote:
Originally Posted by longhornfan1234
Zero interest rates for a half a decade is a win for companies that can finance debt on the cheap. It's also a win for the gov't who can borrow without interest. Growth should be up, there is a reason it is called 'expansionary monetary policy cause it is supposed to expand the
Exactly what is called "expansionary monetary policy?"

Because the last 6 years have been about the limits of monetary policy to expand the economy through the normal measures. This was why the stimulus was necessary. Normally to stimulate the economy the Fed would lower interest rates. However, you can't do that if interest rates are at zero. The monetary toolbox is severely restricted when you are already near the "Zero Lower Bound." This is precisely why all the inflation that people predicted in the last 6 years never showed up. Demand was not yet back throughout the economy. Today's numbers are showing, at least for the third quarter, demand is back throughout the economy. Again this not no big thing. People have been screaming and screaming that Bernanke and then Yellen was going to cause hyperinflation and they did not. This is not same old, same old. Japan lost two decades because they didn't make the right choices when they near the zero lower bound.

Quote:
Originally Posted by longhornfan1234
It's not really a win for the average American though. No real wage growth for a half decade, ........ Q1 GDP was a negative print of 2% so it isn't all on the up and up. This is a great print for the US economy... but let's just look back to last year or the year prior. We are mulling along at a 2% growth rate which for a recovery after a recession is pretty unusual.... especially considering the historical accommodative policies by the FED. We've had GDP growth at 4-4.5% for a quarter before. It's just a quarter. Don't post links or use quotes from those links, Kevin. Use your thoughts, pal.
I acknowledged the wage issue in this thread, so this all boils down to, this past quarter is not the past six years. Yeah, I agree. That's why the best GDP growth in 11 years is noteworthy and it feels like a turning point. The contraction in the first quarter was due to historically frigid weather across the midwest/eastern seaboard. It was an anomaly and felt like one at the time. Wage growth has been up recently. With unemployment down and GDP growing at a good clip, employers are going to have to pay more to retain employees so this feels like a trend of mutally reinforcing good numbers. GDP growth high. Fuel prices low. Business demand up. Business investment up. Wages growing.

Also If you still think the 2007-9 financial crisis was a usual recession, I can see why you are confused. It was not and we should have stopped pretending it was years and years ago. It was a Lesser Depression.

Don't post links or use quotes, just pull shit out of your ass, because that is so valuable.
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Old 12-23-2014, 02:54 PM   #12
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

Quote:
Originally Posted by magnax1
Stating facts isn't political. The president has minimal effect on the economy.
I wouldn't say minimal, but I would definitely say that his effect is vastly overrated.

But would a president Rand Paul or Paul Ryan have appointed Janet Yellen to head the FED?
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Old 12-23-2014, 03:03 PM   #13
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

Thanks a lot, Obama
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Old 12-23-2014, 03:56 PM   #14
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Macho Man
Hows the acting

I don't understand your question.
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Old 12-23-2014, 04:19 PM   #15
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Default Re: US: strongest growth in 11 years

Obama is one of the great domestic presidents.
Somewhat below average foreign policy, but more than makes up for it with his domestic policy.

Still to be fair this growth has really only benefited the rich and wall street.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/12/s...eat-recession/

Quote:
Smart Chart: The black-white wealth gap widened during the Great Recession

the average African-American household takes home around 40 percent less income than a similar white family. The gap between non-Hispanic whites and Hispanics (who can belong to any race) is just over 30% (Excel file).

But racial income inequality pales in comparison to the racial gap in net worth — in household wealth accumulated through one’s lifetime and passed from generation to generation — especially between whites and blacks. It’s the living legacy of hundreds of years of structural racism in our past.

And, according to a new study by the Pew Research Center, that wealth gap has grown significantly since Wall street crashed the economy…

From 2010 to 2013, the median wealth of non-Hispanic white households increased from $138,600 to $141,900, or by 2.4%. Meanwhile, the median wealth of non-Hispanic black households fell 33.7%, from $16,600 in 2010 to $11,000 in 2013. Among Hispanics, median wealth decreased by 14.3%, from $16,000 to $13,700
.

They offer a number of possible explanations for the disparity. Foremost among them is that financial wealth — stocks, bonds and the like — has recovered much more rapidly than housing wealth, and whites are far more likely than blacks or Latinos to own those kinds of financial assets, either directly or through their retirement accounts.

Ironically Obama's presidency has economically benefited the groups least likely to vote for him and the empirical evidence shows taht groups most likely to vote for him have seen reductions in their net worth and incomes (on a real inflation adjusted dollar basis).





Based on those pictures you can see that all groups are not doing as well as they were before the recession. Almost all of the economic benefits of the recent growth is taken by elites of this nation

Last edited by MavsSuperFan : 12-23-2014 at 04:23 PM.
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