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Old 04-20-2016, 06:28 PM   #61
Draz
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Default Re: NY Primary results + Pennsylvania and Maryland next week.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FillJackson
Trump did quite well in NY. One of the few places he didn't win was his neighborhood. If you use this tool and enter "Trump Tower" you'll find he didn't win his block either.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2....6442/-73.9977

538 has Trump 95% on target for 1237. If he gets big wins going forward he reach it.


AP Story on the Democratic race
Thanks for the updates bro.
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Old 04-20-2016, 06:29 PM   #62
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Default Re: NY Primary results + Pennsylvania and Maryland next week.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FillJackson
The Presidential election isn't the only election this year. Republicans, especially ones up for election, are skipping the convention.

Yup. Hopefully there's a power shift. Those conservative fckboys need to fall apart.
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Old 04-20-2016, 07:05 PM   #63
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Default Re: NY Primary results + Pennsylvania and Maryland next week.

Looks like Trump v Hillary, which the betting has reflected all along.


Trump will have some good dirt on that woman. They have known each other for years.
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Old 04-20-2016, 07:09 PM   #64
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Default Re: NY Primary results + Pennsylvania and Maryland next week.

Trump is like the 07 Warriors to Hillary being the 07 Mavericks.
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Old 04-20-2016, 07:31 PM   #65
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Default Re: NY Primary results + Pennsylvania and Maryland next week.

hillary really got lucky. she's playing against a bunch of scrubs. trump is going to lose very badly.
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Old 04-21-2016, 09:38 AM   #66
FillJackson
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Default Re: NY Primary results + Pennsylvania and Maryland next week.

Folks are pointing out there is a split in the Sanders camp on the endgame.

Upthread, I pointed to the video where the Sanders campaign manager was pretending they were going to sweep all the rest of the states and win virtually all of CA to jump into the lead. He then even said, they would fight to win superdelegates even if they were behind in the popular vote and behind in pledged delegates.

The top Sanders Strategist is not endorsing that.

Quote:
The end is coming: A top Sanders adviser hints at a quiet finish

There’s a whole lot of hand-wringing among Democrats right now over Bernie Sanders’s vow to keep on trying to flip super-delegates even if he continues to trail badly in the popular vote and pledged delegate count — a quest that, he says, could spill on to the convention floor in Philadelphia in July. Both Sanders himself and his campaign manager Jeff Weaver have rattled this saber.

But now senior Sanders adviser Tad Devine has telegraphed a much more likely endgame — one that would be a whole lot quieter and less contentious. In an interview with Rachel Maddow, Devine was asked whether this strategy is in sync with Sanders’s high-minded campaign, and he answered, in part:

Quote:
“The key test is succeeding with voters. In 2008 I wrote a piece that they published in the New York Times right after Super Tuesday, and I argued that super-delegates should wait, should look and listen to what the voters do, and follow the will of the voters. And I can tell you, I got a lot of push-back from the Clinton campaign at the time, when I published that piece.

“But I believe that today — that our super-delegates, that our party leaders, should let the voters speak first. And I think if they do, all the way through the end of the voting, that will strengthen our party, and certainly strengthen our hand — if we succeed with voters between now and June.”

Note that “if.” In one sense, Devine is basically calling on Democrats to be patient and allow the voting to continue until the end. (I’ve argued that there are many good reasons for Sanders to keep going until all the votes have been counted.) But Devine is also clearly indicating that the super-delegates should not contradict the will of the voters, once they’ve all had a chance to speak.

So they agree on going to June, but disagree on how to play out the end.


Also note that the revolution is being run by a guy named Tad.
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Old 04-21-2016, 09:43 AM   #67
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Default Re: NY Primary results + Pennsylvania and Maryland next week.

Another thing Tad Devine notes is the delegate process from caucus states is still ongoing and the number from election night can and do change by the time everything is said and done.
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Old 04-23-2016, 06:53 PM   #68
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Default Re: NY Primary results + Pennsylvania and Maryland next week.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FillJackson
April 26th
Then a week from Tuesday another 384 delegates and 78 super delegates up for grabs in
3 days

Predictions
Rhode Island. Bernie 59%
Pennsylvania. Hillary 54%
Delaware Hillary 59%
Connectict Hillary 53%
Maryland Hillary 63%
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Old 04-25-2016, 10:11 PM   #69
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Default Re: NY Primary results + Pennsylvania and Maryland next week.

With 5 states voting tomorrow, Bernie seems to be hinting about pulling this in for a landing. He was on a town hall on MSNBC today. Here's the beginning and the article they wrote.

Quote:
Bernie Sanders Admits He's Unlikely to Flip Superdelegates

Bernie Sanders conceded at an MSNBC town hall on Monday that he faces narrow odds in convincing super delegates to switch their allegiances from the Democratic presidential front-runner, and instead hand him the nomination.

"At the end of the process, frankly, if we are behind in the pledged delegates, I think it's very hard for us to win," Sanders said to MSNBC's Chris Hayes in Philadelphia.

......
When asked if he were to galvanize the movement to participate in the general election, regardless of whether he was the Democratic nominee, Sanders said the onus was on Clinton to win over his supporters.

"I think that most Democrats out there, more than anything, correctly so, want to make sure that some right wing Republican doesn't become president of the United States," Sanders said.
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Old 04-26-2016, 04:33 PM   #70
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Default Re: NY Primary results + Pennsylvania and Maryland next week.

I-95 primary. Polls close for all five states at 8 pm Eastern.

For both parties, this will be the biggest single-day delegate haul until June 7, the last major day of voting.

I think the last time any of these states went Republican was for Bush in 1988
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Old 04-26-2016, 11:52 PM   #71
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Default Re: NY Primary results + Pennsylvania and Maryland next week.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FillJackson
With 5 states voting tomorrow, Bernie seems to be hinting about pulling this in for a landing.

The Sanders campaign put out the following statement that folks are pointing to an acknowledgement that he is not going to be nominee and the goal now is to fight for to influence the party.

Quote:
I congratulate Secretary Clinton on her victories tonight, and I look forward to issue-oriented campaigns in the 14 contests to come.

I am proud that we were able to win a resounding victory tonight in Rhode Island, the one state with an open primary where independents had a say in the outcome. Democrats should recognize that the ticket with the best chance of winning this November must attract support from independents as well as Democrats. I am proud of my campaignís record in that regard.

The people in every state in this country should have the right to determine who they want as president and what the agenda of the Democratic Party should be. Thatís why we are in this race until the last vote is cast. That is why this campaign is going to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia with as many delegates as possible to fight for a progressive party platform that calls for a $15 an hour minimum wage, an end to our disastrous trade policies, a Medicare-for-all health care system, breaking up Wall Street financial institutions, ending fracking in our country, making public colleges and universities tuition free and passing a carbon tax so we can effectively address the planetary crisis of climate change.
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Old 04-26-2016, 11:54 PM   #72
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Default Re: NY Primary results + Pennsylvania and Maryland next week.

Easily Trump's biggest night tonight. Easily a majority in every state. Tonight was all states that vote Democratic in the general election, so probably not typical Republican voters. More Catholic, less evangelical up here.
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Old 04-27-2016, 12:03 AM   #73
FillJackson
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Default Re: NY Primary results + Pennsylvania and Maryland next week.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FillJackson
Predictions
Rhode Island. Bernie 59%
Pennsylvania. Hillary 54%
Delaware Hillary 59%
Connectict Hillary 53%
Maryland Hillary 63%


Actual results
Rhode Island. Bernie 55%
Pennsylvania. Hillary 56%
Delaware Hillary 60%
Connectict Hillary 52%
Maryland Hillary 63%
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