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Old 06-30-2008, 12:30 PM   #31
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Default Re: People with a clue about euro prospects

Interesting Sharas
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Old 06-30-2008, 12:41 PM   #32
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Default Re: People with a clue about euro prospects

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sharas
my general feeling is that they're judged on athleticism and perceived upside (and less on actual production) even more than college guys.

first, rules are different (especially assists are harder to notch), games are shorter with smaller scorelines, rotations are deeper, team concept is valued much more instead of stars getting all the shots (very few guys average 20 ppg in europe, and virtually no one on the powerhouse teams averages more than 15-17) since the game is so different, scouts pay more attention to how will someone's skills translate in NBA than actual production. (and especially athletic abilities. some of best european players are guys that would be tweeners on NBA level or just plain don't have the athleticism. on the other side, guys like tony parker and mickael pietrus look awful in the FIBA game, but one is NBA all star and other is a serviceable rotation player)

second, even the great young prospects don't get minutes that easily, since the huge pressure is to win now and return the money for owners. the free market system doesn't allow for rebuilding and emphasizing young players NBA style. if you have money, you buy the best players you can - and investors want results ASAP. therefore, even though player can be a huge upside prospect - he'll have a hard time getting minutes over say, some NBA journeyman that can produce better right now.
and this holds true even more for big men, since post play is less emphasized anyways and young centers with potential rot on the benches.

one more thing, as someone noted, some teams even stash their young talents to hide them intentionally from NBA so they can sign them to long term contracts with huge buyouts which are nearly impossible to get out from.

i'll maybe add more thoughts later if i remember

Interesting.
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Old 06-30-2008, 12:52 PM   #33
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Default Re: People with a clue about euro prospects

Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia had their draft status submarined because their coaches would bench them everytime a NBA scout was in attendance. Ersan was considered a lottery pick and Zaza was supposed to be a mid first rounder.
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Old 06-30-2008, 01:26 PM   #34
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Default Re: People with a clue about euro prospects

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sharas
my general feeling is that they're judged on athleticism and perceived upside (and less on actual production) even more than college guys.

first, rules are different (especially assists are harder to notch), games are shorter with smaller scorelines, rotations are deeper, team concept is valued much more instead of stars getting all the shots (very few guys average 20 ppg in europe, and virtually no one on the powerhouse teams averages more than 15-17) since the game is so different, scouts pay more attention to how will someone's skills translate in NBA than actual production. (and especially athletic abilities. some of best european players are guys that would be tweeners on NBA level or just plain don't have the athleticism. on the other side, guys like tony parker and mickael pietrus look awful in the FIBA game, but one is NBA all star and other is a serviceable rotation player)

second, even the great young prospects don't get minutes that easily, since the huge pressure is to win now and return the money for owners. the free market system doesn't allow for rebuilding and emphasizing young players NBA style. if you have money, you buy the best players you can - and investors want results ASAP. therefore, even though player can be a huge upside prospect - he'll have a hard time getting minutes over say, some NBA journeyman that can produce better right now.
and this holds true even more for big men, since post play is less emphasized anyways and young centers with potential rot on the benches.

one more thing, as someone noted, some teams even stash their young talents to hide them intentionally from NBA so they can sign them to long term contracts with huge buyouts which are nearly impossible to get out from.

i'll maybe add more thoughts later if i remember
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Old 06-30-2008, 02:29 PM   #35
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Default Re: People with a clue about euro prospects

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dasher
Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia had their draft status submarined because their coaches would bench them everytime a NBA scout was in attendance. Ersan was considered a lottery pick and Zaza was supposed to be a mid first rounder.

Ilyasova was not (and wouldn't be now) good enough for a lottery pick. He is an interesting player, though.
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Old 06-30-2008, 03:25 PM   #36
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Default Re: People with a clue about euro prospects

I DON'T have a clue about euro prospects, but just to put one aspect into perspective.

It is generally assumed that young players who play a couple years professionally in one of the top leagues (Spa, Ita, Gre) and/or in the Euroleague are further along in their development than US College players.

Andrea Bargnani was as "safe" a 1st rounder as you can get:
- well known, very quick, nba size, was growing still, frame filling out, played 2 years on a top team, on the national squad, had a unique skill shooting 3s...

Yet, it has taken him 2 years to get used to the NBA. And depending on how this year goes, he might be a total bust, or might still end up a good bench player.


Very tough to hype up Euro players with a story like Bargnani fresh on everyone's mind. Despste Euro teams beating the US in international ball, the NBA is still way ahead of any other league.
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Old 07-03-2008, 02:44 AM   #37
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Default Re: People with a clue about euro prospects

Lots of euro players are busts
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Old 07-03-2008, 03:43 AM   #38
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Default Re: People with a clue about euro prospects

Great post Sharas. I think you pretty much covered everything that needs to be said. Euros are so hard to predict, but these guys can play (most good Euros at the top levels would be good in the NBA they just choose to stay in Europe) and they are not going away for that reason. NBA teams are just taking shots in the dark for these young guys hoping that they can steal them away from the European teams.

I think another thing that comes into play is that their are so many teams and leagues that it is hard to find these guys. Remember that guy that I think Chad Ford was hyping a couple years ago that was like 7-8 or something? He was Russian and couldn't go up and down the court like three times before they had to take him out of the game. The thing people need to remember is that Chad Ford and other reporters are doing this as a job. It is like when they report a potential trade or that a guy is mad at his coach. They want to be the 1st with the story and make a name for themselves. Sadly for Chad Ford he went from a respected reporter back before he was with ESPN to a guy that just tries to be different and hype up a guy and hope he is right (and outside of Darko we don't remember, and every year fall for the same stuff that makes us think we have uncovered a gem that no one else has). If Chad Ford was like Jay Bilas (who I really like as a college basketball analyst, but only talks about the good things on draft night) then it would be boring. To keep people reading he needs to hype up guys that we don't know or what to know more about. Who would read an article about how Beasley is a good scorer? We want to hear about Serge Ibaka as the next Shawn Kemp because it isn't such a good read if he is really a lesser Stro Swift.

If I was to talk about a 6-10 player that is very athletic for his size (4.4 40), puts up 13 and 7 on a mid-level team, and can hit shots out to 20 feet, you would probably think I was talking about the next Dirk or Gasol. Alexis Ajinca? No he only got 5 and 3 this year, and while he is two inches taller and two years younger he isn't as athletic or as far developed. I am talking about Trent Plaisted when he was the 20. He could do everything Ajinca could do and then some, just was a couple inches shorter. That is the big thing. We don't read about what college players do in practice (Ajinca is said to be a good shooter, but has only taken 4 3's in games the last 2 years). So we attack a guy like Hendrix and say he can't play outside, and yet he has taken three times as many threes as Ajinca in actual game situations.

And please don't think I am a Euro hater, I had Batum as a top 5 player this year, I like Gallinari, Pekovic, and Tomic, and in the past I have supported many Euros including Darko and Tsikta. However, as fans we need to use some common sense. We need to realize guys like Ibaka and Ajinca would be DeAndre Jordan's at the college level, if they were even offered scolarships to BCS schools. Guys like Chad Ford get a lot of their info from practice. We talkin' 'bout practice, man. AI said it best when look at these Euros.
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