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Old 02-05-2008, 12:45 AM   #1
baseketball4life
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Default Duke at North Carolina, Wednesday night on ESPN

Who wins? UNC's stud PG Ty Lawson is going to miss the game due to an ankle sprain, this will hurt UNC a lot. I think UNC will pull it out at home in OT, even though they will be without their PG.
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Old 02-05-2008, 06:14 PM   #2
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

It hasn't yet been confirmed that Lawson is definitely out, though he is doubtful. With the way all of Duke's guards can penetrate and with the way UNC's guards have had trouble handling penetration this year WITH a healthy Lawson, it's gonna be a tough one for UNC, even if it is at the Dean Dome.
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Old 02-05-2008, 08:58 PM   #3
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

UNC gets my vote. I love this game. Duke is getting a little cocky and UNC is going to put those Blue Devils back in their place. Good luck Tar Heels.
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Old 02-05-2008, 09:30 PM   #4
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

UNC wins with or without Lawson, they have the definite size advantage over Duke and equal at the guard play. Danny Green is awsome and will need to dominate for UNC to win. The game is at home for UNC and UNC has more expierence.
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Old 02-05-2008, 11:44 PM   #5
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

I think it goes without saying that Hansbrough needs a huge game. Even without an inside game, Duke is the more complete, balanced team right now and they play much better defense.
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:32 AM   #6
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGame414
I think it goes without saying that Hansbrough needs a huge game. Even without an inside game, Duke is the more complete, balanced team right now and they play much better defense.

they do play better defense, but a more complete balanced team right now, what post treat do they have??
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Old 02-06-2008, 09:56 AM   #7
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGame414
I think it goes without saying that Hansbrough needs a huge game. Even without an inside game, Duke is the more complete, balanced team right now and they play much better defense.
are you drunk? your are a freakin retard. carolina is clearly better, duke is a bunch of whiny white boys
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Old 02-06-2008, 10:08 AM   #8
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

As much as I hate to admit it, Duke is looking very good lately. They tend to almost lull the other team to sleep and then will suddenly go on a 15-0 run. Losing Lawson will hurt, but I'm hoping for the crowd and the memory of Hendersons sucker punch from last year to get the boys in blue (the right color blue) fired up.
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:24 PM   #9
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

Quote:
Originally Posted by sulsuvtut27
they do play better defense, but a more complete balanced team right now, what post treat do they have??
What part of "even without an inside game" did you miss?

Duke gets nearly as much inside scoring as UNC, but in a different way, with the slashing of Nelson, Henderson, etc. They have seven guys averaging at least 6.7 points, five guys averaging double figures. Deon Thompson is starting to come on strong for UNC right now, but for most of the year they've been relying on four guys for their points.

So they have more balance in their scoring. They have more balance in how they space the floor and attack you from all angles. They have balance in terms of beating you at both ends of the floor. Despite UNC having Hansbrough and Duke having a hole in the middle, the two teams' offensive efficiency is just about dead even, with UNC No. 3 in adjusted efficiency at 122.3, and Duke No. 4 at 121.6. So UNC, per 100 possessions, is scoring a whopping 0.7 more points than Duke.

Even more impressively, not one player in Duke's rotation averages less than 1.29 PPS, whereas half of UNC's regulars- Ellington (1.27), Thompson (1.07), Ginyard and Stephenson (1.18 each)- do.

But Duke is also elite at the other end of the floor, ranking No. 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency at 85.7, whereas UNC is No. 30 at 89.8.

Simply put, they're playing better basketball this year than UNC is. UNC has slightly a more talented top six than Duke, but the Tar Heels have kinda been walking on eggshells in recent weeks with shaky performances in wins over Clemson, UNC-Asheville, FSU and Georgia Tech- only Clemson, among those, is a possibly tourney-bound team- and the home loss to Maryland.

Duke showed its vulnerability to an inside presence against Pitt's Dujuan Blair, but that was also about two months ago. They're simply playing better basketball as of late.

I'm not going to flat-out predict a Duke win. It's on UNC's floor and Lawson's status isn't certain.

Last edited by TheGame414 : 02-06-2008 at 01:26 PM.
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:34 PM   #10
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

Quote:
Originally Posted by bballer
are you drunk? your are a freakin retard. carolina is clearly better, duke is a bunch of whiny white boys
Calm down kid. You are in no position to be calling other people retards. If you've seen Duke play at all this year, you would know that they are damn good.
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:52 PM   #11
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

Quote:
Originally Posted by bballer
are you drunk? your are a freakin retard. carolina is clearly better, duke is a bunch of whiny white boys

Tyler Hansbrough.

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Old 02-06-2008, 02:01 PM   #12
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

Quote:
Originally Posted by bballer
are you drunk? your are a freakin retard. carolina is clearly better, duke is a bunch of whiny white boys
Yes, when I look at Demarcus Nelson and Gerald Henderson, Duke's two leading scorers, the first thing I think is, what a couple of whiny white boys!

How is UNC "clearly better?" Both teams only have one loss, except Duke's came back in December and they've been tremendous since, whereas UNC's came recently and on their home floor, and they've been kinda shaky overall for the last month.

Whatever interior advantage UNC has with Hansbrough, Duke wipes out with the slashing abilities of their perimeter players, namely Henderson and Nelson. Duke plays better defense. They're deeper. They shoot the 3 better.

This isn't to say that Duke is clearly a better team; that would be stupid. Just as stupid as to say UNC is clearly better than Duke. There's absolutely zero evidence of that to date.

That said, two last points:

1. I think UNC will win tonight, with or without Lawson.
2. I don't think either team can win the national championship.

Okay, maybe they could, but neither team fits the profile of a national champion.

As Pat Forde pointed out in his column this week, both teams are only +6.1 percent in field goal shooting over their opponents, which would be the lowest differential for a national champ in over a decade.

Despite Duke clearly being able to make up for their lack of post scoring over the course of a season, come tournament time they'll meet a team who can match their perimeter proficiency, and can also hammer them inside with a deep, physical frontcourt that can eat them up on the class. Like Kansas, Memphis or UCLA. Being nearly entirely perimeter-based can only get you so far. You can win four straight games in March like that. Not six. Also, though Duke plays much better defense, it just seems like Tennessee is a better version of what Duke is doing, especially considering the Vols have more frontcourt power.

UNC just doesn't look like they're tough enough. I don't see the same borderline arrogance from these guys that the '05 group had. Though Thompson and Stephenson are playing better lately, it's still mostly just Hansbrough inside. The '05 team not only had May, but the Williams boys also. Like I said, they're only No. 30 in defensive efficiency and don't seem likely to improve upon that. The last four national champs were No. 12, 4, 6, and 3 in defensive efficiency. They're at near-crisis at point guard if Lawson doesn't get to 100 percent, or close to it, in a hurry.

If I had to rank my most likely national champs right now, here'd by my Elite Eight:

1. Kansas (they have seven legit starters, play great offense and defense, and generally appear to have the fewest holes)

2. UCLA (I questioned if they could score enough as a team, or if they had a legit fourth individual scorer. Both questions answered. They're No. 3 in offensive efficiency and No. 8 in defensive efficiency, and Russell Westbrook is for real.)

3. Memphis (free-throw shooting and post scoring are issues. But there have been poor FT% teams before to win it all, and Dorsey's interior defense combined with the interior points they get from slashing perimeter players makes up for most of the lack of post scoring.)

4. Connecticut (No, I'm not crazy. Did anyone see Florida coming in 2006? UConn seems to fit that profile- IF they get Jerome Dyson back in time for the tournament. They have a badass frontcourt: the physical scorer and rebounder in Adrian, the shotblocking monster with an improving offensive game in Thabeet, and a superathletic slasher in Robinson. They have an outstanding point guard and two other quality guards- again, if Dyson comes back. Frontcourt depth is an issue, but these guys generally stay out of foul trouble.)

5. Tennessee (They have the same strengths and weaknesses as Duke, except they play worse defense. But they have a stronger interior with Tyler Smith as the power point forward, and the power trio of Chism, Crews and Williams averaging 18 ppg and 15 rpg in 50 combined mpg. Plus, they have an outstanding 1.55/1 A/TO ratio.)

6. UNC (National champions tend to have productive seniors somewhere in the mix- 2006 Florida notwithstanding- and UNC doesn't. Plus the issues already mentioned.)

7. Indiana (They haven't played great lately, losing back-to-back games to UConn and Wisconsin, though both are excellent teams, and have looked unimpressive in wins over the last month against some subpar teams. Still, they have perhaps the nation's best inside-outside duo in White and Gordon, and enough other weapons to compliment them for a deep tournament run from a No. 3 or 4 seed.)

8. Duke (already talked about them in detail)
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Old 02-06-2008, 02:46 PM   #13
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

what the heck Indiana???? Duke is 100% more likely to win a NC. Indiana will get deep into the tournament.... about the second round-sweet 16 at absolute most. They have played one ranked team up to this point and lost by 13. I am sure that win aganist Chicago State will do them well for their confidence in the tournament. 2 good players are on that team, if they ran into Tennessee, Kansas, Georgetown, UCLA they would get crushed.
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Old 02-06-2008, 03:19 PM   #14
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

Quote:
Originally Posted by sulsuvtut27
what the heck Indiana???? Duke is 100% more likely to win a NC. Indiana will get deep into the tournament.... about the second round-sweet 16 at absolute most. They have played one ranked team up to this point and lost by 13. I am sure that win aganist Chicago State will do them well for their confidence in the tournament. 2 good players are on that team, if they ran into Tennessee, Kansas, Georgetown, UCLA they would get crushed.
Two great players are on that team, not two good players. I agree they aren't one of the best teams in the country.

They're ranked No. 14, and deservedly so.

But not every potential Final Four team is lights-out over the course of a season, and not every team that's ranked in the top 5-10 over the course of a season is a potential champion. I could have easily just listed the top eight teams in the country at this moment, but that would be both easy and likely inaccurate.

Look at the teams ranked ahead of Indiana. Do you feel that Stanford, Xavier, Wisconsin or Butler has any sort of championship potential? Or even Georgetown? Georgetown's the same team that simply couldn't generate enough points to win the championship last year, except they lost the No. 5 pick in the draft. What about Michigan State or Texas? Okay, I could buy either of those teams instead. But I'd like to see Gary Johnson consistently give Texas those 12-point, 7-board games like he did against Baylor before I put them in there, because otherwise they're relying too heavily on nearly half of their scoring from a couple of guys under 6 feet tall. And Michigan State, despite losing Neitzel after this year, seems a year away.

Duke has certainly been a much better team than Indiana over the course of this season and likely will continue as such. But in a single-elimination tournament, I think Duke has certain shortcomings that keep them from fitting a championship profile. So does Indiana, but they'll have the two best players on the court against most teams. They have three NBA players (Jarmarcus Ellis being the third).

Indiana could absolutely go down early, even earlier than the Sweet 16. Or they could ride a white-hot Gordon and White all the way to the title game.
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Old 02-06-2008, 04:11 PM   #15
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Default Re: Unc V. Duke

Quote:
Originally Posted by bballer
are you drunk? your are a freakin retard. carolina is clearly better, duke is a bunch of whiny white boys

Demarcus Nelson and Gerald Henderson are white?! Get out of here, I couldn't tell from seeing them play. That's messed up man, what happened to them?
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