Its official...i dropped $1,000 on the Spurs for the series (I lose i owe $5,000;ouch but there is a plan out of that if it appears Spurs are chokin) and I'm tempted to bet on Cavs Game one. 7.5 underdogs, thats a lot of points. Maybe Clevland can steal game 1 ala Sixers vs L.A?
Some history...the last time 2 teams met in the finals and one team swept the other in the regular season...that team that won the reg season series lost in the finals 3 teams. 0-3, so the odds are against Clevland. Spurs are also 3-0 in the NBA finals.
I'm probably going to drop 1000 on the Cavs, then lay 2000 on the Spurs in game 2. I agree, if there's a game that the Spurs botch at home it'll be game 1 where they get taken by surpise, and there is a history of that happening.
The issue would be if the Spurs wipe up in game 1 and I have to lay even more than the 8 points from game 1. Disaster would be the Spurs winning and not covering. But could still afford to take another shot on in game 3.
Yes you can. You can not find mathematical equations to insure victory but you can make a living if you have a large enough bankroll.
Bankroll is everything and it is why the house always wins. Cause they can sustains swings in odds and losses.
If you have 5 thousand dollars in the bank and quit your job to make a living at gambling you will go broke because your bankroll is too small.
But if you have 200 thousand and quit your job and know what you are doing and go for the small calculated bets over time and avoid the large pretty bet you can make a living for the rest of your life.
Two reasons people go broke.
Their bankroll is too small to sustain bad odds.
When they hit a losing streak betting small they keep increasing their bets to make it up and go broke.
If you always bet 5 thousand a week with the chance to win 5 thousand and take your loss and don't try to make it up and stick to the formula every week you can make your living if you know what you are doing.
Take Black Jack on a table with a 100,000 dollar limit and you have a bankroll of 200 thousand.
You enter the casino with 100,000 dollars with the goal of making 5,000 everyday sticking to this formula.
Bet 1 100
All your profit will be made on bet 1. So you are going to make your 5 thousand by winning 50 100 dollar bets. You will always leave win you win the 5 thousand and will do this 3 or 4 times a week.
You win Bet 1 so you are plus 100 dollars.
Since you won you remain on phase 1 and rebet 100 dollars. Any time you win on phase 1 you stay on phase 1 and bet 100 dollars. Phase 1 is where your money is made. Every other phase except 2 is simply to break even and return to phase 1.
You lost on Phase 1.
Phase 2 Bet 200. If you win return to Phase 1 and bet 100.
If you lose go to Phase 3 bet 300.
Phase 3 if you win you have made up the 300 you lost know return back to Phase 1 and bet 100. Everytime you win at Phase 1 or Phase 2 you make 100 dollars profit. Every other phase is to break even.
Bankroll 100,000 Table Limit 100,000 They must allow a table minimum of a 100 dollar bet.
Never split or double down. Even if it is normally in your best interest 11 or 10 or dealer has 6 because it throws off the pattern. Keep your bet on the table if you push at anytime and don't change it.
What this means is for the casino to break you you must lose 11 hands in a row. The odds of losing 11 hands in a row on Black Jack are in the millions.
If you happen to hit those terrible odds and lose 11 in a row walk out with the 43400 you half left and add it to the 100,000 you have in the bank and come back in a couple of days. Don't bet that last 43400 on Phase 12 because if you lose they broke you and if you win you haven't broke even.
What this pattern allows.
Everytime you win on Phase 1 or 2 you make 100 profit.
Add your profits to a seperate stack. Your goal is to make 5 thousand profit. Once the profit is made you leave.
You also have the benifit of house pays 1 and 1/2 on Black Jack. So if you hit a Black Jack in a higher Phase you can make your 5 thousand goal that way. Always leave the second you hit the 5 thousand or surpass it on a high phase Black Jack.
Say you hit Black Jack on Phase 8. You will you will make 4800 profit.
What this means is for the Casino to break you you must lose 10 hands in a row on 3 different ocassions and not have profits in the bank.
200,000 in bank.
Lose 10 hands means you lost 57600
If that happens three times you are left with 27,200 plus all the profits you have made which would be 5000 everyday you play and don't get broke.
The odds of the Casino breaking you under this pattern is in the billions.
The odds of you making a living are 99.99999999999999%
The Casino will eventually kick you out and you will have to find other marks until you are eventually banned from all big Casinos.
Because the odds of them breaking you are so low they will eventually catch on and ban you.
That's an awful betting system, and here's the reason why: you've greatly understimated your odds of losing 11 hands in a row. For argument's sake pretend the odds of winning each individual hand are 50/50 (your odds are actually worse). That means the odds of losing 11 hands in a row are 1/2048. So if you start "phase one" 2048 times, one of those times is going to end in complete diasaster. If you try to use this system to make $5000 a day, you need to start "phase one" about 50 times a day. That means you'll hit a disaster at some point after 41 days of betting. And basically go broke.
Incremental betting only works if you have a nearly unlimited bankroll and a table with an umlimited max bet.
I have 1000 on the Cavs in the series, won 2000 on game one, 500 on game two, and took the Cavs last night, and won another 250. So I'm up 1550 right now, subtracting the 1100 I'll owe if the Cavs don't win out. But if by some miracle they do, I'm up 7650.
The reason it works for the house is because I'm on a hot streak, but I'm only up 1550 in exchange for risking 4125, once you count in all the vigs. If you have to pay out every once in a while for that type of return, so what.