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Old 11-13-2013, 04:28 PM   #46
-p.tiddy-
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Default Re: So all of a sudden we are headed toward "Global Cooling" now?

from that article shvler:

Quote:
Some climate scientists, such as Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, last week dismissed the significance of the plateau, saying that 15 or 16 years is too short a period from which to draw conclusions.

Others disagreed. Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’.
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Old 11-13-2013, 04:29 PM   #47
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Default Re: So all of a sudden we are headed toward "Global Cooling" now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dresta
Not really:

'He said, “The pattern over the last 100 years has been characterized by overall warming, with signals of natural climate variability.”'

100 years is still minuscule in relation to the lifespan of the planet. Thus a hundred year sample can be just as subject to natural climate variability as a 10 or 20 year sample.

100 years at that rate is significant. You can't say it's meaningless because you're not considering geologic time scales when you're not considering geologic rates.
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Old 11-13-2013, 04:53 PM   #48
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Default Re: So all of a sudden we are headed toward "Global Cooling" now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by -p.tiddy-
that's debatable according to that article

one person saying 16 years is too short, another saying 16 years to be in a standstill is very meaningful
Well it's not very debateable. It is too short to meaningfully predict anything.
I'll be using data from GHCN, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ta..._v3/GLB.Ts.txt
To extract a trend out of data you need to have enough data so that the trend is meaningful. From a least squares fit I did in excel from nasa's temp anomalies, I extracted the slope from 2002 and 2012 which was 0.28k/cent which is a significant warming trend. Adding just 4 years 1997-2001, changed the slope to 1.53k/cent, a greater positive warming trend. The lesson here is if you are willing to utilize and discuss this data within the span of 16 years, you have to accept the error that comes along with using a limited data set. 0.0153k/yr is significantly larger than the trend for the twenty first century, about 0.5k/cent.

Last edited by shlver : 11-13-2013 at 05:03 PM.
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Old 11-13-2013, 05:04 PM   #49
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Default Re: So all of a sudden we are headed toward "Global Cooling" now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by shlver
Well it's not very debateable. It is too short to meaningfully predict anything.
I'll be using data from GHCN, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ta..._v3/GLB.Ts.txt
To extract a trend out of data you need to have enough data so that the trend is meaningful. From a least squares fit I did in excel from nasa's temp anomalies and extracted the slope from 2002 and 2012 which was 0.28k/cent which is a significant warming trend. Adding just 4 years 1997-2001, changed the slope to 1.53k/cent, a greater positive warming trend. The lesson here is if you are willing to utilize and discuss this data within the span of 16 years, you have to accept the error that comes along with using a limited data set. 0.0153k/yr is significantly larger than the trend for the twenty first century, about 0.5k/cent.
well I don't think many are using our current 16 year stand still in temp as the lone reason to "predict" things...

from earlier:

Quote:
Long-term cycles in ocean temperature, she said, suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend.

also read a few comments about solar reasons for the temp going down in coming years...has a lot to do with what the sun is currently doing

I don't think the scientists that are predicting the coming cool down are just looking at overall temp graphs and saying "see it's curving downward now!"
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Old 11-13-2013, 05:06 PM   #50
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Default Re: So all of a sudden we are headed toward "Global Cooling" now?

this topic is too debatable to debate.
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Old 11-13-2013, 05:21 PM   #51
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Default Re: So all of a sudden we are headed toward "Global Cooling" now?

Just stumbled across this
Quote:
Incomplete global coverage is a potential source of bias in global temperature reconstructions if the unsampled regions are not uniformly distributed over the planet's surface. The widely used HadCRUT4 dataset covers on average about 84% of the globe over recent decades, with the unsampled regions being concentrated at the poles and over Africa. Three existing reconstructions with near-global coverage are examined, each suggesting that HadCRUT4 is subject to bias due to its treatment of unobserved regions.

Two alternative approaches for reconstructing global temperatures are explored, one based on an optimal interpolation algorithm and the other a hybrid method incorporating additional information from the satellite temperature record. The methods are validated on the basis of their skill at reconstructing omitted sets of observations. Both methods provide superior results than excluding the unsampled regions, with the hybrid method showing particular skill around the regions where no observations are available.

Temperature trends are compared for the hybrid global temperature reconstruction and the raw HadCRUT4 data. The widely quoted trend since 1997 in the hybrid global reconstruction is two and a half times greater than the corresponding trend in the coverage-biased HadCRUT4 data. Coverage bias causes a cool bias in recent temperatures relative to the late 1990s which increases from around 1998 to the present. Trends starting in 1997 or 1998 are particularly biased with respect to the global trend. The issue is exacerbated by the strong El Niño event of 1997-1998, which also tends to suppress trends starting during those years.


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1....2297/abstract
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Old 11-13-2013, 11:39 PM   #52
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Default Re: So all of a sudden we are headed toward "Global Cooling" now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by -p.tiddy-
there are DOZENS of write ups on this out...

Holy Shit dozens?
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