538 knows numbers, but they don't know basketball

[3ball]

https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wo...ron-cast-2.png


The list of best supporting casts is based on how well the supporting players played alongside their #1 option, not whether they were more talented than other supporting casts - the list measures a team's TEAMWORK, not the level of supporting TALENT..

MJ's supporting cast was never anywhere NEAR Magic or Bird's supporting cast - this is an obvious fact - but the chart shows MJ's casts literally 20 spots ahead of Magic and Bird's 80's casts... gtfo... that's insane..

Magic's 1987 cast was the most talented of all time... But apparently, Magic didn't get as much production out of Michael Cooper, Byron Scott, James Worthy, Kareem, and AC Green as MJ got out of Pippen, Grant and Paxson... .... But that doesn't mean MJ had the better supporting cast... this is why I say the media is dumb as ****... How can they purport such an obviously flawed and erroneous chart?

And guys like Kerr/Paxson weren't anywhere NEAR as talented as Norris Cole/Mario Chalmers - however, Kerr/Paxson, etc., played REALLY WELL alongside MJ, while Chalmers, Cole always sucked alongside Lebron.
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[SouBeachTalents]

Same can be said for OP

[3ball]

Same can be said for OP

That's fine.. As long as you agree the list is complete bullshit.

The list ranks Pippen/Grant/Paxson literally 10-20 spots ahead of say, Kareem/Worthy/Scott/Cooper/AC Green/Rambis, or McHale/Parish/DJ/Walton.

Nonetheless, media like espn touts this list as insighful.. But again, the list merely shows how well the supporting players played alongside their #1 option, not their level of talent - the list measures a team's TEAMWORK, not the level of supporting TALENT..

[fpliii]

Bird and Magic had (much) more stacked casts than MJ, there was no salary cap back then (pre-84-85), and even in the years immediately following, they already had those salaries on the books, so they had an advantage over the rest of the league until those guys declined.

538 has some good stuff (check out their ELO rating articles), but that list is not great IMO. It uses a box score model (BPM I believe) instead of one based on point differential (since digitalized play-by-play, which is needed to compute plus minus, doesn't go back to the 80s, or even the early 90s).

Just my 2 cents.

[warriorfan]

That's the thing about the statisticians. They are smart people and have good ideas but they just don't know basketball.

[triangleoffense]

I don't even watch "analysis" anymore by those BSPN hacks.. rather just watching the game on mute.. there are some good color commentators however

[Bankaii]

That's the thing about the statisticians. They are smart people and have good ideas but they just don't know basketball.

You're not smart and don't know stats nor basketball.
So what's your excuse?

[Young X]

You have no knowledge or understanding about the defensive end of the court. It's not just about offensive talent, you don't win with just talent. Team defense is the #1 requirement for a championship team. How else do you think the Bulls even with their shooting struggles were able to beat the '97 Heat or the Sonics?

The Bulls weren't that talented offensively but they had excellent defenders and rebounders. This is why you think MJ did it all by himself...you, just like all casual fans see one player shouldering a heavy scoring load and you ignore the defensive contributions of his teammates.

[GIF REACTION]

You're not smart and don't know stats nor basketball.
So what's your excuse?

ETHER.

[3ball]

Bird and Magic had (much) more stacked casts than MJ, there was no salary cap back then (pre-84-85), and even in the years immediately following, they already had those salaries on the books, so they had an advantage over the rest of the league until those guys declined.

538 has some good stuff (check out their ELO rating articles), but that list is not great IMO. It uses a box score model (BPM I believe) instead of one based on point differential (since digitalized play-by-play, which is needed to compute plus minus, doesn't go back to the 80s, or even the early 90s).

Just my 2 cents.

Based on the available data, MJ was at or near the top of RAPM each year, just like Lebron is - but stats like RAPM misses a super-ton.

For instance, it's a statistical fact that Lebron's presence significantly lowered the APG and assist % Wade, Mo Williams, Kyrie, Love and Bosh, while increasing their assisted rate - this proves that Lebron turns teammates from playmakers into play-finishers... Since Lebron's playing style naturally reduces the capacity of teammates when he's on the floor with them, it's no surprise that Lebron's RAPM is high.

Otoh, MJ's presence had the opposite impact - Pippen's APG and assist % was higher alongside MJ, while his assisted rate was lower - considering that MJ's presence allowed his teammates to RETAIN their playmaking responsibilities, it's remarkable that MJ was still at or near the top in RAPM - his style was less conducive for achieving RAPM success, because it didn't naturally reduce teammates from playmakers into play-finishers like Lebron.

[warriorfan]

You're not smart and don't know stats nor basketball.
So what's your excuse?

I believe you have me mistaken for someone else.

[fpliii]

The data we have shows that MJ and Lebron are at or near the top of RAPM each year - but stats like RAPM misses a super-ton.

For instance, it's a statistical fact that Lebron's presence significantly lowered the APG and assist % Wade, Mo Williams, Kyrie, Love and Bosh, while increasing their assisted rate - this proves that Lebron turns teammates from playmakers into play-finishers... Since Lebron's playing style naturally reduces the capacity of teammates when Lebron is on the floor with them, it's no surprise that Lebron's RAPM is high.

Otoh, MJ's presence had the opposite impact - Pippen's APG and assist % was higher alongside MJ, while his assisted rate was lower - considering that MJ's presence allowed his teammates to RETAIN their playmaking responsibilities, it's remarkable that MJ was still at or near the top in RAPM, considering his style is less conducive for achieving RAPM success.

That response doesn't have anything to do with what I said, I commented on Bird and Magic having better supporting casts than MJ. I didn't even mention LeBron, and if he has as bad a jump shot as he did last year, he's not a player who is interesting to me historically.

I don't use box scores at all in my analysis (only look at impact stats and tape) so I don't really care about assists (though I do agree in general that a singular ball-dominant offense tends to limit team potential in the playoffs against elite defenses). We don't have RAPM for MJ during his peak years anyway, but he would probably look like a monster anyway.

[GIF REACTION]

On par with Peak Lebron you'd think.

[warriorfan]

Based on the available data, MJ was at or near the top of RAPM each year, just like Lebron is - but stats like RAPM misses a super-ton.

For instance, it's a statistical fact that Lebron's presence significantly lowered the APG and assist % Wade, Mo Williams, Kyrie, Love and Bosh, while increasing their assisted rate - this proves that Lebron turns teammates from playmakers into play-finishers... Since Lebron's playing style naturally reduces the capacity of teammates when Lebron is on the floor with them, it's no surprise that Lebron's RAPM is high.

Otoh, MJ's presence had the opposite impact - Pippen's APG and assist % was higher alongside MJ, while his assisted rate was lower - considering that MJ's presence allowed his teammates to RETAIN their playmaking responsibilities, it's remarkable that MJ was still at or near the top in RAPM, considering his style is less conducive for achieving RAPM success.

Yes, you make a great point. A byproduct of LeBron ball is the rest of the team suffering in statistical production. Not only does this push his teammate's RAPM down but it simultaneously pushes LeBron's up. Otoh, when we see Jordan and Curry they actually ENHANCE their teammates production, leading to their teammate's getting boosted in RAPM. How else is Draymond Green going to post positive offensive RAPM numbers with an abysmal offensive game? Playing with a player like Steph Curry or Jordan is how. Let it be noted that Michael Jordan and Curry still posted league leading RAPM, even without artificially boosting it through a LeBron-Ball type system.

[3ball]

That response doesn't have anything to do with what I said, I commented on Bird and Magic having better supporting casts than MJ. I didn't even mention LeBron, and if he has as bad a jump shot as he did last year, he's not a player who is interesting to me historically.

I don't use box scores at all in my analysis (only look at impact stats and tape) so I don't really care about assists (though I do agree in general that a singular ball-dominant offense tends to limit team potential in the playoffs against elite defenses). We don't have RAPM for MJ during his peak years anyway, but he would probably look like a monster anyway.

I know you never mentioned Lebron and my response was a sidebar...

You know me by now... ... I just wanted to link that previous thread that showed Lebron significantly lowers the APG and assist % of his teammates, while increasing their assisted rate, thus proving he turns teammates from playmakers into play finishers.

Btw, pm'd you about that data... Sounds great to me
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