My draft board looks like this. Fifty fifty chance that Payton or Ennis falls to us at 20. Early and Mcdaniels will most surely be there for us. Capella and Porzingas will both probably be there for us. Maybe only one.
My big board would be Ennis, Payton, Capella, Porzingas, Mcdaniels, Early.
If we don't draft a wing expect Ujiri to bring in a free-agent wing defender.
If we draft a point guard, de colo will be gone.
If we draft a post player Hansbrough will be gone.
I feel like Fields should get a shot at playing regular bench minutes, mostly with ross on the floor.
Great guard play is so crucial. i don't think the raps will let either payton or Ennis go undrafted if they fall to 20.
Well Ennis / Payton make sense : 1) You can eliminate the contracts of De Colo / Stone / Bucyks i.e. 3 for 1 and a rookie deal at that. You save about $1.5 Million on the cap.
But I disagree Enis / Payton is around.
Despite what mock draftsand the experts say...(it does change from year to year) but in general :
1) Big men seem to rise up the board as you cant teach size.
2) PG tend to rise secondly and are picked over swing men. PG is a very discipline skill need each team need
3) Swing men 2/3 - and atheltic swing men tend to drop slightly as there are always a lot available in the draft. Further there are always more of them available as FA...
2/3 my be the guys that win championships - I get that - but there are hundreds in the league for every 1% (Melo,LBron, Wade, Pierce etc) Further the 1% actually play everywhere on the floor including the 4 and even the 5 for some minutes.
My big board would be :
One of TJ Warren, Adrien Payne , James Young is available plus
I get what you're saying Jballer, about the small ball taking over. As a former post player, I'm still partial to the thinking that teams need a conventional C and PF
Early wouldn't surprise me if he went #20, he also wouldn't surprise me if he went #40. To me, he's one of the hardest guys to read.
Kristaps Porzingas withdrew his name from the draft, along with a few other players. I'll be releasing the long awaited Version 2.0 of Chamberlain's Mock Draft in the near future to reflect these changes.
I get what you're saying Jballer, about the small ball taking over. As a former post player, I'm still partial to the thinking that teams need a conventional C and PF
I think size (wingspan as a function of size) still gets rated highly. You still cant teach size. Size generally is picked higher and "ceiling potential for 2/3 picked lower" in the average draft.
As you say in this era of small ball, inside out game, pick and roll teams still value size to set high picks 20 feet out at the top of the key and size to have a turnaround face to the basket game for 15 foot shots on rotation mismatches. They may not want Chuck and Drex pounding inside old school half court offense but they do want open looks when a guy shoots with 4 inch size mismatch advantage over a rotation defender. Face to the bucket should result in RBs as well.
PGs too tend to rise in general in my opinion as a skill pick. Brandon Roy, DRose, Liliard ... I mean Lilliard came from small school small program yet teams were willing to reach for him. Hence I am tending to think the bigs and PGs will get picked over some 2/3 players with "potential" ala TJ Warren / Young / Levine etc
Seemingly only the Raptors (and Cavs) seem to "reach" for 2-3 in the draft be it TRoss, Joey Graham etc
KJ McDaniels rises - his atletic performance at combine in play
Zach Levine ditto
More odds on Ennis
15. Atlanta Hawks -- Jusuf Nurkic, C, Bosnia (19 years old), 6-11, 280
Atlanta drafted two international players in the first round last year and can grab another with a big upside here. Nurkic is raw, but the big, physical center has soft hands and tools that remind some scouts of Minnesota's Nikola Pekovic.
16. Chicago Bulls -- P.J. Hairston, G, D-League's Texas Legends (21 years old), 6-5, 229
Chicago has been aggressively shopping its two first-round picks, according to league sources, with an eye on either moving up for a shot at a better player or flipping them for a veteran scorer. Hairston put up some big numbers in the D-League after being exiled from North Carolina and has great size and strength for his position.
17. Boston Celtics -- James Young, G, Kentucky freshman, 6-7, 213
Young has been getting solid reviews in his workouts as teams continue to believe that the wingman, who put up pedestrian shooting numbers at Kentucky, will develop into a dangerous perimeter shooter. With Avery Bradley headed towards restricted free agency, the Celtics need some insurance. This pick, like No. 6, could be a trade chip, too.
18. Phoenix Suns -- Zach LaVine, G, UCLA freshman, 6-6, 181
Where will LaVine go? His stock is all over the board. He has off the charts athleticism and showed occasional flashes of a nice jumper at UCLA. In Phoenix, LaVine brings a little more size to a smallish backcourt and should thrive in Jeff Hornacek's up-tempo system.
19. Chicago Bulls -- K.J. McDaniels, SF, Clemson junior, 6-6, 196
This is another pick the Bulls are willing to deal, according to sources. McDaniels is a spectacular athlete with huge defensive potential, which Tom Thibodeau will love. McDaniels showed improvement offensively throughout the season, though his perimeter game is still a work in progress.
20. Toronto Raptors -- Tyler Ennis, G, Syracuse freshman, 6-3, 182
While Ennis is a steady playmaker and effective pick-and-roll player, there are questions about his athleticism and his ability to make plays off the dribble against NBA defenders. The Raptors would eagerly snag the Toronto-born Ennis here to either back up pending-free agent Kyle Lowry or be in the mix to replace him.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder -- Elfrid Payton, G, Louisiana-Lafayette junior, 6-4, 185
With Derek Fisher gone, Oklahoma City has a need for another guard in the rotation. Payton has looked strong in workouts and could be snapped up earlier. He isn't much of a shooter, but he's an effective slashing scorer and a strong defender. The forward thinking Thunder are also aware of what Reggie Jackson could cost when he becomes a restricted free agent after next season.
22. Memphis Grizzlies -- T.J. Warren, F, NC State sophomore, 6-8, 220
It's looking more and more likely that interim boss Chris Wallace and head coach Dave Joerger -- who will have strong input on this decision, according to a source -- are leaning towards a small forward. Warren has looked excellent in workouts, showcasing the old school game that was so effective at NC State. He can contribute now and take over for Tayshaun Prince after next season.
23. Utah Jazz -- Jerami Grant, F, Syracuse sophomore, 6-8, 214
There are a lot of concerns about what kind of offensive player Grant can develop into; he's little more than a dunk and put back guy now. The son of ex-NBAer Harvey Grant -- and nephew of Horace -- has a strong pedigree though, and superior length and athleticism for the position.
24. Charlotte Hornets -- Clint Capela, PF, Switzerland (20 years old), 6-11, 222
The Hornets get a strong rim protecting prospect here in Capela, who will need seasoning. Hornets coach Steve Clifford loves defenders, and the long, athletic Capela has huge potential. Capela is a very good athlete who international scouts say improved significantly as a defender last season with Elan Chalon in France. Capela may be a draft-and-stash candidate but don't be surprised if a strong player development coach like Clifford wants to get his hands on him early.
25. Houston Rockets -- Cleanthony Early, SF, Wichita State, 6-7, 209
The cap-space-clearing Rockets will shop this pick; if they keep it, Early is the kind of athlete who can thrive in Houston's up-tempo system. With Chandler Parsons a restricted free agent, Early is protection in case a team makes Parsons an offer the Rockets can't match.
Mock Draft Update
USA today "the common sense draft"
(never knew USA Today had common sense )
KJ McD doesnt make the first round
Ennis falls to around 24
GRIII and Cleathony move up just below the Raptor range i.e. 21- 25
20. Toronto Raptors: SG/SF James Young, Kentucky
Young's high upside was covered up a bit on a young and deep Kentucky team. But he is a prototype NBA swingman, and the Raptors have to be wondering about the low production they've had from 2013 slam dunk champion Terrence Ross.
Added two big trades that I see happening, added a full second round, and added a best case scenario for first round players.
1. Cleveland - Andrew Wiggins
- A no brainer to me. Perfect player to compliment Kyrie Irving as he doesn't need to be the go-to scorer right off the bat. Cleveland has horrendous defense, and Wiggins helps instantly. Philly/Orlando/Utah/Boston apparently looking to trade up, but I don't see it happening.
Best: Scottie Pippen
2. Milwaukee - Jabari Parker
- Management loves him, he grew up nearby, and it fits the teams rebuild as they are trying to do it as quickly as possible. Great offensive weapon to build around, will probably need to be surrounded by defense to hide his weaknesses on that end.
Best: Paul Pierce
3. Philadelphia - Dante Exum
- I can't pretend to know too much about Exum other than he's a tall, quick combo guard and that he tested off the charts on his psych tests and teams all loved his work outs. Philly is apparently in love with him and will take him if Wiggins isn't available or they can't trade up.
Best: Penny Hardaway
4. Orlando - Joel Embiid
- Rough couple of weeks for Embiid. We all know the stories and potential dangers. I just can't see him falling past Orlando.
Best: Hakeem Olajuwon
5. Utah - Noah Vonleh
- Looking at the roster, they seem set for big men, but Kanter is due for a contract soon and they probably won't want to pay him the money he's looking for.
Best: LaMarcus Aldridge
6. Boston - Marcus Smart
- Striking out on both getting #1 and Kevin Love, the Celtics decide to go the complete opposite direction and trade Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green. Marcus Smart is a great defensive player, with the potential to be a good facilitator/scorer on offense. A great PG to lead a young team.
Best: Prime Deron Williams
7. LA Lakers - Julius Randle
- IF they keep the pick, they take a player who is ready to contribute, plays a position of need, and is a good building block for the future. Rumours swirling that this pick may be traded to Philly for Michael Carter-Williams. We'll see.
Best: Kevin Love
8. Sacramento - Aaron Gordon (pick traded to Boston along with Ben McLemore for Rajon Rondo and 2015 2nd)
- Boston gets another young defensive oriented player with the potential to be a high energy role player for many years. Offensively raw but shows some skill, and insanely athletic and an absolute gym rat.
Best: Shawn Marion
9. Charlotte - Nik Stauskas
- They've got a nice young PG and a pretty good front line. They lack offense at the wing position, and they seem to be building an athetlic team (ruling out Dougie McBuckets). Stauskas spreads the floor with his sharp shooting and keeps defenses honest with ability to get to the rim.
Best: Peja Stojakovich
10. Philadelphia - Dario Saric
- If there is one team in the lottery who is okay with waiting two years for this player, it's Philly. They have a ton of picks and can afford the extra roster spot. He'd be a solid point-forward type facilitator with Exum not being a true PG.
Best: Toni Kukoc
11. Denver - Gary Harris
- I'm not that high on Gary Harris, though I was during the season. Denver would like to add some back court depth, and at the very least he'll be a good defender and would look nice next to Ty Lawson, though it makes for a smaller back court than you would ideally like.
Best: Jerry Stackhouse
12. Orlando - Elfrid Payton
- Orlando gets the PG they were initially looking for at #4 before Embiid fell into their laps. Tough, defensive PG. Natural leader. Went toe to toe with Marcus Smart in workouts and beat him out for a starting position with the US U19 team.
Best: Rajon Rondo
13. Minnesota - Doug McDermott
- Assuming Love leaves, Doug fills a scoring void, plays a similar style game, and could end up being a steal at 13. He finds a way to score. People get scared that he'll become Adam Morrison but to me it's obvious that McBuckets is a superior player in terms of thinking the game and being able to create space to get his shot.
Best: Wally Szczerbiak
14. Phoenix - Zach Lavine
- Phoenix is the best team to not make the playoffs, and I think they will take a gamble on the athleticism of Lavine, as I think they are going to be more focused on bringing in a veteran after July 1st to help with their run. Lavine is an outstanding athlete and has tons of skill, but there are questions as to whether or not he understands the game.
Best: Russell Westbrook
15. Atlanta - James Young
- Alanta has a promising young PG, solid bigs and a lack of wing scoring. Young has tremendous upside, can shoot, play defense and get to the rim. Will need to get stronger and mature, but this is another possible steal.
Best: Jamaal Crawford
16. Chicago - Shabazz Napier (traded to the Knicks, along with #19, future 1st rounder, and Taj Gibson for Carmelo Anthony)
- Knicks going into full rebuild. Sign and Trade Melo away for two picks and a veteran big man. Knicks get a gritty leader and perhaps the steal of the draft. Someone who has the fire to succeed and can learn how to be a true PG from newly acquired Jose Calderon.
Best: Damian Lillard
17. Boston - TJ Warren
- After trading away Rondo, and taking two defensive oriented players in Smart and Gordon, the Celtics go the other way and add some wing scoring with TJ Warren, who is a pure scorer.
Best: Rip Hamilton
18. Phoenix - Jusuf Nurkic
- Adding another piece for the future; a massive center with soft hands who they can probably stash overseas for a year or two until they are both ready to commit to each other.
Best: Nikola Pekovich
19. Chicago - Jarnell Stokes (To NYK from previous trade)
- Some scouts see Stokes as a better prospect than Julius Randle. They have very similar skill sets. A beast on the block and is maybe great at nothing, but good at everything. Should be a very solid rotational player for years.
Best: Zach Randolph
20. Toronto - Tyler Ennis
- With Lowry up in the air, it makes sense to have a back up plan. Even if Lowry stays, you can shore up the PG position for years with this pick. I don't think Ennis is a starter on a great team, but he can be a quality 6th man on a contender. He sees the game very well and with the right mixture of players could be a nice point guard for the future.
Best: Andre Miller
21. Oklahoma City - Adreian Payne
- Thunder are obviously in win-now mode, and Payne gives them an extra asset to play on the block as a stretch four. He creates room for other people, is good defensively and rebounds well. Perfect fit for OKC.
Best: Robert Horry
22. Memphis - Rodney Hood
- Fills a void at the SF position. May be able to contribute right away. Has a nice shooting touch, can play defense and has athleticism. He is good in all areas of the game but may need time to adjust.
Best: Tayshaun Prince
23. Utah - Jordan Adams
- This guy can score. With Hayward maybe on the way out, Utah needs someone who can fill the stat sheet. Won't give you a whole lot defensively and is a little undersized for the SG spot, but he's a potential 16PPG 6th man.
Best: Manu Ginobili
24. Charlotte - Mitch McGary
- Rumors of a promise here. Josh McRoberts just opted out, and McGary replaces his size and rebounding ability. Being on a team with former teammate Nik Stauskas hopefully keeps him motivated and focused.
Best: Marcin Gortat
25. Houston - Kyle Anderson
Their biggest hole is on the wing, and with no true playmaker on the team, he fits the bill as a point forward. Didn't score well on his athleticism tests, but with guys like Howard, Harden, Lin, Bevery, Parsons, etc., you can afford a slow player with this amount of skill.
Best: Hedo Turkoglu (prime)
26. Miami - Jordan Clarkson
- They obviously need help at all positions that aren't PF/SF, and PG seems to be their biggest weakness after watching these playoffs. Clarkson can score and defend and has the ability to get out on the break and lead an offense. Should be a good fit here.
Best: Michael Carter-Williams
27. Phoenix - Clint Capella
- Seems to be a theme here for Phoenix, take a project and let him sit overseas for a year or two. Phoenix needs to save their cap space for veterans who can help now. Capella is a very athletic big man with raw skill who needs to refine his game before he can be an impact player.
Best: Derrick Favors
28. LA Clippers - Spencer Dinwiddie
- Often injured point guard with size. Surprisingly efficient and well faceted in all areas. Clippers need some bench help in the back court, and provided he's healthy, he should be able to back up both guard spots in his rookie year.
Best: George Hill
29. Oklahoma City - Vasilje Micic
- International PG with a similar playing style to Jose Calderon. OKC desperately needs PG help, and along with adding Payne, Micic should be able to step in during year one and play some backup minutes.
Best: Jose Calderon
30. San Antonio - Bogdan Bogdanovich
- Regarded as perhaps the best young player in Europe currently. Great scoring and playmaking ability. Seems like a no brainer for the Spurs if he is available. Might stay a year or two overseas but will be worth the wait. Very low risk pick, in my opinion.
31. Milwaukee - CJ Wilcox
32. Philadelphia - Cleanthony Early
33. Cleveland - Jerami Grant
34. New York - PJ Hairston
35. Utah - Thanasis Antetokoumbo
36. Milwaukee - Semaj Christon
37. Toronto - Damien Inglis
38. Detroit - Glenn Robinson III
39. Philadelphia - Dwight Powell
40. Minnesota - KJ McDaniels
41. Denver - Walter Tavares
42. Houston - James Michael McAdoo
43. Atlanta - Khem Birch
44. Minnesota - Johnny O'Bryant
45. Charlotte - DeAndre Daniels
46. Washington - Alessandro Gentile
47. Philadelphia - Aaric Murray
48. Milwaukee - Melvin Ejim
49. Chicago - CJ Fair
50. Phoenix - Juvonte Reddic
51. New York - Markel Brown
52. Philadelphia - Deonte Burton
53. Minnesota - Nick Johnson
54. Philadelphia - Cory Jefferson
55. Miami - Sean Kilpatrick
56. Denver - DeAndre Kane
57. Indiana - Jahii Carson
58. San Antonio - Jordan Bachynski
59. Toronto - Jabari Brown
60. San Antonio - Andre Dawkins
1) I think I think that Tyler Ennis is the Toronto pick.
All the experts pick it.
I have reservations. I worry about the pick based on Canadian content. I think Ennis is good but I worry that a TJ Warren / Rodney Hood / Adrien Payne or other potentially spectacular player (upside) will be overlooked for the Canadian content. I always distrust the "hometown favorite" theory of picking.
I fail to see how Boston and Chicago would let him slip as well (unless they trade). Boston is projected to take PJ from D league. While his athletism "maybe better" the Celtics need a steady option for Rondo - especially if he is or is not the cornerstone of some move to create a massive overhaul to win sooner ala Love. Similar arguements for Bulls and DRose whether they chase Melo / LBron or anyone.
2) 2nd Round Picks.
If KJ McDaniels the freakishly talented shot blocking 3 or GRIII from Michigan are available to the Raptors - for god sake Masai - pick one of them. Both may not have NBA primetime games ready this year - but both will be strong 6th men in a few years. Further both seem to have the talent, knack and apptitude to play lock down d - something your coach wants. These guys will contribute this year in a "meaningful" way (not all star but meaningful) and frankly may spell out Amir, PP, and or TRoss to rest them and get their heads in the game when they go to sleep out there.