Originally Posted by BRabbiT
this team's margin of error is so thin. this is going to hurt the everyday lineup.
snip 87 wins end snip
that's obviously being optimistic. 81-81 is more likely imo
I don't strongly disagree or agree with you.
81 is possible and frankly so is 75 depending on how the injury bug rolls around the team.
Having said that...
Baltimore was 96 - 66 and I will suggest the under
Yankees finished 84 - 78 and very much under
Blue Jays were 83 - 79 last season... I am reasonably sure that the overall talent is 4 + games better
Tampa was 77 - 85 ~ bet the under
BoSox finshed 71 - 91 ~ I think I would bet up to 82 games but their magin is also razor thin.
The Jays should face each of the above about 10 times (but not the Yankees??) and a 4 game favorable swing in division against Tampa / Baltimore / Boston is a reasonable expectation out of this team.
They also get a fair number of games verse Miami, NYMets, Twins, and Indians with only a handful vs Tigers / Rangers. I am not following improvements in the Marlins, Mets, Twins, Indians but I suspect a 4 game favorable swing is possible in out of division play.
Between the 2 ~ 88 games seems right to me. But as agreed upon frankly it is marginally thin as that is based on few injuries and "pitcher adjustments"... the young guys will have to pitch through and not get smoked by season end as big league hitters learn to read them and target their stuff.