Funny to see how differently you guys in the US see things.
There is absolutely no doubt here in Italy that BXVI did not
abdicate because of whatever "secret report/documentary" you guys are babbling about.
(The alleged "sex scandal" is water under the bridge. Actually Ratzinger has been one of the most active Popes against pedophilia in the Church - which, with all due respect to actual victims and their suffering, remains a statistical nullity).
JPII was in the saddle, despite his illness, until he died... because everyone in the Vatican was with him and he could trust ALL of his cooperators.
This is probably not the case for BXVI; there is a very well-known clash between two factions in the Vatican, one which is faithful to Ratzinger (guided by the president of Italian Episcopes, cardinal Angelo Bagnasco) and one which is not (led by the Vatican State Secretary, cardinal Tarcisio Bertone).
This is the most common line of thought among vaticanists.
I am not saying I agree with it, but it seems reasonable.
Certainly much more than an HBO documentary
As concerns the next Conclave...
If the above interpretation of BXVI's abdication is correct, then it is to be expected that Ratzinger also did it so as to let his "faction" hold the keys to the elections.
(And no, Dolan is not really a strong candidate... no US cardinal really is, understandably).