Could James Harden lead a playoff caliber team as the lead player/scorer?

[TheeBeast]

If Arron Brooks could average 19 on the Rockets, I'm putting Harden at 23/4/5

[BlitzForce]

Harden goes left, Lin goes right

double penetration!

[bdreason]

Who would have thought Harden was traded after making this thread. Most people's opinion seems to be that Harden couldn't be the lead dog... well, we're about to find out. I doubt the Rockets have any chance at the playoffs out West though.

[All Net]

Lets now see and we will find out soon...

[blacknapalm]

harden's stats with westbrook on/off the court:

http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player-vs-player.html#James-Harden-vs-Russell-Westbrook|201935,201566;year=201112;season=r

as you can see, harden actually scores more on a higher % when westbrook is on the bench. close to 37% of harden's minutes come with westbrook on the bench.

now for his stats with durant on/off the court:

http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player-vs-player.html#James-Harden-vs-Kevin-Durant|201935,201142;year=201112;season=r

again, his points and FG% increase while he effectively gets to the line. about 25% of harden's minutes come with durant on the bench (and westbrook overlaps w/ durant a lot).

this kind of shoots down the theory that harden is only a product of playing next to durant/wb.

you also see how much they all make each other better with the +/-. durant's +/- drop differential is actually greater than harden's without durant. same with westbrook...his + status goes way down when harden hits the bench.

could it be that many of harden's possessions lead to points, assists or FTs? hmm....

[Owl]

There probably needs to be clarity about what is meant by "lead" and "playoff caliber".

Assuming what is meant is "be the best player" and "a team that makes the playoffs" then yes, easily. Danny Granger did it, for example. http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/2011.html

Some people don't seem to get how good James Harden is.

Here's a list of the (all-time) guards who have been in Harden (last year)'s ballpark in terms of shooting.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...r_48#stats::30

Most were specialist shooters on low usage and low minutes. The best comp seems to be Manu, a super efficient scorer, who gets to the line and a very well rounded player who contributes in all areas. The difference is that theres a fair chance Harden can be a 36+ mpg player whilst Manu could/can only ever play a max of 32 minutes. Now obviously %s fluctuate significantly year to year but Harden's career ts% is over .600 so I can't see him doing badly in that area. He may even end up getting more calls now that he's his team's star.

Harden is a max player (certainly now the max is lower). It will be interesting to see how he does taking on more shots but based on what we've seen thus far he should be fine.

[blacknapalm]

There probably needs to be clarity about what is meant by "lead" and "playoff caliber".

Assuming what is meant is "be the best player" and "a team that makes the playoffs" then yes, easily. Danny Granger did it, for example. http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/2011.html

Some people don't seem to get how good James Harden is.

Here's a list of the (all-time) guards who have been in Harden (last year)'s ballpark in terms of shooting.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...r_48#stats::30

Most were specialist shooters on low usage and low minutes. The best comp seems to be Manu, a super efficient scorer, who gets to the line and a very well rounded player who contributes in all areas. The difference is that theres a fair chance Harden can be a 36+ mpg player whilst Manu could/can only ever play a max of 32 minutes. Now obviously %s fluctuate significantly year to year but Harden's career ts% is over .600 so I can't see him doing badly in that area. He may even end up getting more calls now that he's his team's star.

Harden is a max player (certainly now the max is lower). It will be interesting to see how he does taking on more shots but based on what we've seen thus far he should be fine.

well said. i didn't want to bring up manu even though the comparison is almost inevitable. manu only played 30 mpg twice in his whole career yet people want to say he was a solid #1 option. he never scored 20 ppg or had 5 apg or 5 rpg.

chalk it up to pop's minutes if you want but i think if you look at manu's per 36, that's about where harden will get at. even the TO's tend to add up.

[JMT]

Yeah you can be an amazing talent and not want to be the lead guy. He's not a lead guy, I don't think... you have to be a special person to really take a team on your back. There are so many guys that won't.

Very few players can go out there (and this is one thing to Kobe's credit) and chuck a game away and be okay the next game. I don't think Harden is one of them. Unfortunately, the Rockets need him to be...

He has to shoot. If he stops shooting, his team will suffer. He can continue to get efficient stats, but it will affect the other players who NEED someone to be that go-to guy. He has to be a 25 ppg scorer IMO. He is capable, but is he mentally tough to shrug off those games where he gets 18 points on 30 shots?

-Smak

I watched Harden virtually ever game of his college career, and that has always been my take on the guy. Lots of talent and ability, but not what the NFL calls the "Cornerback/quarterback" mentality" : the ability to handle all the pressure to produce, night in and night out, along with the selective amnesia to forget those halves/nights when you don't.

He's a few years older and has established some NBA comfort level, but I'll personally be surprised if he can be the unquestioned lead guy on a team that's anything but mediocre.

[bmulls]

harden's stats with westbrook on/off the court:

http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player-vs-player.html#James-Harden-vs-Russell-Westbrook|201935,201566;year=201112;season=r

as you can see, harden actually scores more on a higher % when westbrook is on the bench. close to 37% of harden's minutes come with westbrook on the bench.

now for his stats with durant on/off the court:

http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player-vs-player.html#James-Harden-vs-Kevin-Durant|201935,201142;year=201112;season=r

again, his points and FG% increase while he effectively gets to the line. about 25% of harden's minutes come with durant on the bench (and westbrook overlaps w/ durant a lot).

this kind of shoots down the theory that harden is only a product of playing next to durant/wb.

you also see how much they all make each other better with the +/-. durant's +/- drop differential is actually greater than harden's without durant. same with westbrook...his + status goes way down when harden hits the bench.

could it be that many of harden's possessions lead to points, assists or FTs? hmm....

Did you account for the fact that 95% of the time Harden was playing with Durant/Westbrook on the bench he was playing against other teams' 2nd unit?

[Pushxx]

They won 34 last year, in 66 games.


Anyway, Harden is an all-around player. He scores. He's going to score. And they have a ton of solid players all over the roster.

Before Harden I had them as a sub-20 win team. Sure they won about half their games last year but their roster is almost entirely different.

It just looked like the worst roster in the league to me. Even worse than the Magic and Bobcats.

[Whoah10115]

Before Harden I had them as a sub-20 win team. Sure they won about half their games last year but their roster is almost entirely different.

It just looked like the worst roster in the league to me. Even worse than the Magic and Bobcats.

The worst? Don't get me wrong, they have an odd mix. They just have lots and lots of players. But, all of their players can play. It was just a mishmash before. They just got rid of 2 SG's and they're bringing in Harden. The team is suddenly a lot better.

The difference is that theres a fair chance Harden can be a 36+ mpg player whilst Manu could/can only ever play a max of 32 minutes.

This does not tell the story. Tony Parker doesn't play many minutes either. Never has.

Parker has played 36Min exactly 0 times. His career average is 32.9.


That's just the way the Spurs go. Even Duncan, before he started declining, had minutes reduced. After he won his 2nd MVP his minutes dropped to 36.6 and after that he never played 35Min again.

[bagelred]

this kind of shoots down the theory that harden is only a product of playing next to durant/wb.

OK, but let's remember many of Harden's minutes are against other teams 2nd unit......so.........now he'll be competing against other teams starters .

[RRR3]

They're gonna need him to average around 24 PPG if they want a playoff spot.

Lin won't average more than 16 PPG. Same with Asik (15 and 12 type guy).

What on earth has given you the impression that Omer Asik can average 15 PPG?

[blacknapalm]

OK, but let's remember many of Harden's minutes are against other teams 2nd unit......so.........now he'll be competing against other teams starters .

oh certainly. actually played my own devil's advocate and brought that up in another thread. still think it's a fairly telling stat

[PP34Deuce]

typing from cell phone...

this deal tells me okc didnt feel he was wortg more than ibaka. also tells me they want flexibility n westbrook and durant are cornerstones whick makes sense. i see them wanting westbrook to handle the ball. i also see them wanting eric maynor to run a traditional second unit and pj3 has impressed.

hardens play in finals influenced okc,to not spend,tge bank on him.