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Old 12-18-2008, 10:01 AM   #1
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Default Keeper league trade...

I am in a DEEP H2H keeper league (20 teams, 14 players per, standard 9 cats except TO is AST/TO ratio), we are in year 4 and have some pretty thrifty GMs. We get to keep 8 but it doesn't really matter that much during the season because there is always lots of deals to be made in the off season before we have to name keepers. This offer came across my trade desk and i've been considering it, that or at least countering it.

I get:
Josh Smith (having a rough year with that high ankle sprain but is a solid player, 23 years old)
DJ Augustine (JRich trade was partially made to make more time for him, 21 years old)
Jarred Jeffries (filler, he said I could swap it out with Joey Graham if I wanted)
3rd round pick next year (he is one of the worst teams so it would be a high first rounder)

He gets:
Micheal Beasley (he has been trying to get him all year, 19 years old)
CJ Miles (has perminently taken over the starting SF spot but still only playing about 22mpg... 21 years old)
Wilson Chandler (a younger, better shooting, better ball handling Marion playing for D'antoni, 21 years old)
1st round pick (I am one of the best teams so it would be a late 1st rounder)

Smith would replace Beasley as a keeper for me, but Augustine would be outside my top 8 but would be a nice trade piece later on for an upgrade. Only reason I really consider this is because Beasley and Chandler are hot and cold but are definatly solid keepers.

My team (the first 7 players were keepers for me, the 8th guy I traded already, it was SJax):

David West
Amar'e Stoudemire
Greg Oden
Devin Harris
Rodney Stuckey
Chris Paul
Spencer Hawes
Marvin Williams
Wilson Chandler
Michael Beasley
C.J. Miles
Robin Lopez
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Brandon Rush

I have 10 guys I would like to keep so I don't mind moving 2 to get a better one in Smith, but I still feel i'm getting a little fleeced. The guy I would be trading with doesn't care about this year so he is just trying to get the most talent in return for Smith, position or specific stats mean nothing to him, he said so straight up. The only other players he has that peak my interest are Jason Thompson and Mario Chalmers but with Paul, Harris and Augustine I would already have 3 guys that only play the PG position.

I'm just looking for some opinions, i'm leaning towards declining... I do want to get my hands on Smith, but Chandler is the guy that makes me hesitate.

Last edited by Phenith : 12-18-2008 at 10:04 AM.
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Old 12-18-2008, 12:50 PM   #2
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Posts: 2,606
Default Re: Keeper league trade...

I dont think you're getting fleeced at all. I'd do the deal in fact. I can see the value in both sides, although it sounds like you might be able to get more based on how badly he wants Beasley etc. Although I understand the potential for Chandler and Beasley, I wouldnt deny getting THE best defensive player in fantasy hoops so I could wait on their potential to be fulfilled, because you never know how far away it is. Are they going to blow up like Gay did last year, or will it take several years?

Here's the difference maker and why I'd do the deal (and correct me if I'm wrong but this is how I imagine it playing out): the draft picks have so little value anyway. In a 10 teamer, the end of the first round and the beginning of the third arent too far away, especially once you get out of the big four anyway. But in your league, he might score the 17th overall pick as your first rounder, and he in turn might hand you the 43rd overall pick as his thrird rounder. That sounds like a huge difference in talent in a regular draft, BEFORE you even take into account that there are SO FEW players left because each team is keeping 8 guys. There are 160 guys that will be kept at the end of this season (8 players x 20 teams), so who becomes the #1 overall pick in the draft? A guy like Augustin, Garcia, Gooden, etc? Someone ranked round #160 according to the player rater or whatever. Suddenly there is little to no value in your draft, so taking a guy at #17 overall probably doesnt have all that much value (considering the best rookies and sure-thing, let-go-of talent are off the board) than #43, because they're probably both shots in the dark (which is why you currently own Lopez, Miles, M&M, and Rush).

So let's say we make some predictions as to how this trade would play out a year from now during the draft:
You get Smoov, DJ, Jeffries, and let's sayyyyy Zaza with #43 pick.
He gets Beasley, Chandler, Miles and let's sayyyyy Daniel Gibson with #17 pick.

Who wins in that deal overall, now that we've plugged the players in? I would venture to guess that Augustin is going to develop as much as Beasley or Chandler over the next year (since all are given mins and opportunity with their respective teams) and you walk away with Smoov for an equal amount of scrubs.

Does this thought process seem like something that would pan out in your league or no? I've never played anything like this so my thoughts are all just speculation, but that's how it played out in my head at least.
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