Guess the Electoral votes thread.

[General]

Of course he does.

He had numbers to back it up. Democrat enthusiasm is down, their early vote numbers are down. 150k less for D's, 68K more for R's. That's a huge vote swing. Republicans win election day voting usually. Obama only won by around 262k votes in 2008 with historic Democratic turn out. These are facts.

[RedBlackAttack]

Rove was just on Hannity and he said Democratic early voting is down by at least 150k compared to 2008, and Republican is up 68k from 2008. He said McCain won election day voting in Ohio by a good margin. He thinks the numbers are on track for a slim Romney victory.

Yesterday I said Romney would win 295-243, but I'm revising it to 289-249. Iowa is going to Obama.

Rove trying to generate excitement in his base less than a week before the general election? I'm stunned.

And, right on cue, Rahm Emanuel is saying the exact opposite of Rove.

Obama up 2-1 in early voting

I'm telling you what I found in my own report... That early voting in Cuyahoga, Mahoning and Trumbull counties (all hugely democratic) are seeing record numbers in their early voting and exit polling data favors Obama overwhelmingly.

We'll see how it plays out.

[RedBlackAttack]

These are facts.

No, they absolutely are not. Please supply a valid, unbiased citation for these numbers.

[General]

Rove trying to generate excitement in his base less than a week before the general election? I'm stunned.

And, right on cue, Rahm Emanuel is saying the exact opposite of Rove.

Obama is going to win early voting no matter what. What Rove was saying is Democrat early voting numbers are down by 150k from 2008 statewide.

No, they absolutely are not. Please supply a valid, unbiased citation for these numbers.

I'm just repeating what he said, he said he had looked at the numbers the night before. He's comparing early voting to 2008, he's not disputing that Obama is winning the early vote. He said Republicans usually win election day voting, McCain won election day voting in 08.

[Balla_Status]

No matter the outcome either ISH or Facebook with entertain me when the results come in. The meltdown on ISH if Romney wins will be hysterical and all my texan buddies on Facebook will be outraged if Obama wins.

[Is He Ill]

No matter the outcome either ISH or Facebook with entertain me when the results come in. The meltdown on ISH if Romney wins will be hysterical and all my texan buddies on Facebook will be outraged if Obama wins.

It's a lot more fun to see peoples reactions in person.

[IcanzIIravor]

I have 277-261 Obama winning.

[KevinNYC]

He had numbers to back it up. Democrat enthusiasm is down, their early vote numbers are down. 150k less for D's, 68K more for R's. That's a huge vote swing. Republicans win election day voting usually. Obama only won by around 262k votes in 2008 with historic Democratic turn out. These are facts.

Rachel Maddow showed a clip tonight of the McCain campaign playing this game the day before the election in 2008. The guy from the McCain campaign was on Fox News saying that the internal Republican polling shows that McCain would win the states he needs to win. He named six states, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Nevada. He said this the day before the election.

That guy from the McCain campaign? Willard Mitt Romney.

They then showed the map from 2008 and circled all the states Romney mentioned and every one of them was colored blue.

[RedBlackAttack]

Obama is going to win early voting no matter what. What Rove was saying is Democrat early voting numbers are down by 150k from 2008 statewide.

I'm just repeating what he said, he said he had looked at the numbers the night before. He's comparing early voting to 2008, he's not disputing that Obama is winning the early vote. He said Republicans usually win election day voting, McCain won election day voting in 08.

I know you are repeating what Rove has said and that is the whole problem. I showed you a video of a partisan on the otherside of the aisle saying the exact opposite.

In fact, here is a news piece similar to the one I wrote today...

NEW YORK — Key swing-states have broken or anticipate breaking early-voting records in the homestretch before election day on Tuesday.

Forty-two percent of registered voters in Nevada have already cast their ballots — that’s more than 628,000 votes — according to figures from the Secretary of State. Spokeswoman Catherine Lu said the state elections office “hasn’t heard about any problems” in any of the counties that tally up early votes.

In Iowa, voters beat their previous record on Thursday. As of Friday morning, 584,000 ballots had been cast compared with a final tally of 545,000 in 2008, according to Secretary of State spokesman Chad Olsen.

“We are very busy,” Olsen said. “We got about 27,000 more yesterday. We’re going to have over 600,000 early votes, and that should put us around 40 percent. It’s a new high-water mark.”

Olsen said the process has been going “very smoothly” in Iowa, in part because of how much attention candidates and campaigns put on the state. Iowa is a swing state, and with its first-in-the-nation caucus, it plays a high-profile role throughout the election. He calls it “astounding” and good for voter engagement that the Obama campaign has more than 60 campaign offices in a state with 3 million people.

Iowa also introduced a pop-up voting option, which means a petition with at least 100 signatures enables a temporary voting location to spring up just about anywhere.

“We’ve had early voting locations in Mexican grocery stores and at churches,” Olsen said. “Not at the college bars yet but we have had some candidates who come in and do big rallies on campus and it just happens to be on the same day that there’s an early voting place two blocks away.”

As of Oct. 26, the most recent date for which data is available, Ohio had already received 1.2 million absentee votes. For the first time ever, officials automatically sent an absentee ballot application to every Ohio voter. The move was one of a few steps Ohio took to try to make a more uniform voting process statewide.

“Going well in the Buckeye state,” said Secretary of State spokesman Matt McClellan. “You could probably find little issues here and there but overall things are going well.”

Wisconsin reported “robust” early turn-out, with the number of early voters nearly doubling since last week. In Colorado, where “no-excuse mail balloting” is available to all voters, about 70 percent of the population votes by mail. So far the state has received 1.5 million ballots out of an expected 2.6 million.

“We’ve actually gotten very good at this,” said Colorado Secretary of State spokesman Rich Coolidge. “We’re at 1.5 million votes cast. We’re expecting probably 2.5 to 2.7 million votes. Colorado traditionally has long ballots. It’s been good for voters to be able to sit down and really go through them. If you have long ballots and you’re voting on a machine, and you take 10 minutes per voter, that machine can only handle six voters per hour. You’ve gotta have a lot of machines available. This has really relieved the pressure of getting everyone in on election day. Now you have ‘election three-weeks’ instead of ‘election day.’”

http://www.mercurynews.com/politics-...-swing-states/

It has been reported by the above article and others like it that, as of Oct. 26 (last Friday), Ohio had already counted 1.2 million early votes. In 2008, the total number of early votes counted was 1.45 million.

That means, in Ohio, voters had 11 days to make up 250,000 early votes in order to comfortably surpass last year's early vote total. As you probably know, the closer the election gets, the more people begin to vote in an effort to avoid lines on Election Day. The idea that Ohio wouldn't make up that relatively small 250k margin separating 2008 and 2012 is an incredible stretch.

And, again, I talked to officials in the hugely Democratic Cuyahoga, Mahoning and Trumbull counties today -- Obama's greatest stronghold in Ohio -- and they all told me they've surpassed 2008's early voting totals, two of which by a wide margin.

In short, Rove doesn't know what he is talking about. He's using that 1.2 million number from Oct. 26 and applying it as though it wasn't a full 11 days before the election... As if that was the final tally when, in fact, Ohioans still have until Monday to complete their early voting.

I understand why he's doing it... He wants to excite the base and get them active and optimistic.

But, that doesn't mean you should believe it.

[TheMan]

The GOP's only chance is if Democrats stay home

I'll go with Professor Wang's prediction as of today. Obama 319, Romney 219.

Wang predicted every EV correctly in 2004 when he said Bush would win and he was off by one EV in 2008. One electoral vote wrong out of 1,076. I'd say that's pretty damn impressive.

[longhornfan1234]

I looked at 538 and gave Obama all the states leaning his way plus Florida with is .5% for Romney.

Obama 332
Romney total: 206

Oh God...take Obama's **** out of your mouth.

[Jailblazers7]

I have it at 290-248 for Obama based on the map. I'd have it a 272-266 win if Romney wins Ohio.

[Nanners]

"But guys, Karl Rove said romney is giong to win on fox news!! These are facts we are talking about here."

[Droid101]

332-206 Obama.

If Obama doesn't win Florida, then it'll be 303-225, which is my second pick.

[Droid101]

For anyone who doesn't know, Republicans have won every Presidential election held on Nov 6 going back to 1860 when Abraham Lincoln was elected President.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...ion-Since-1860

Breitbart.com? The ****ing birther/Tea Party haven?

Yeah, here's a hint: when rational people are debating, don't use them as a source. You'll look like a clueless idiot.