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Old 09-12-2006, 11:36 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by MaxFly
Let me just address a few other points... A number of people tend to bring up the recent defensive rule changes when making their points, but they often forget to add some of the details that will discredit some of these same points. For example, prior to the new rule changes, a player couldn't be doubles unless he had the ball in his hands and each player had to be on their man or within reach, so you couldn't have a player half-stepping or roaming... That has been done away with. Now you can send a double team whenever you like, even when they player doesn't have the ball in his hands, and players can roam, playing the passing lanes or cutting off driving lanes. As a result, now it is easier for a team to keep the ball out of the hands of an offensive player or to stop them from driving into the lane. What players like Jordan and Drexler would do when they got the ball is pull a quick move and attempt to get a high percentage shot before the double came. They'd lose thier man momentarily, gain a little space, and that's all they needed.

Elite scorers now are fortunate if they can get that space because if they aren't being denied the ball already, they have a double on the way in the form of a player who was roaming. We also have to remember that players like Ron Artest, Ruben Patterson, and Bruce Bowen are allowed to play that 90s style of beat 'em up defense. Though the new rules outlaw some of their techniques, they get away with them anyway... pushing, shoving, bumping and other forms of contact don't seem to be strictly regulated with some of the better defenders in the league. Thing is that while they are effective at times, they still get burned often, and that's with some of the new rules that help defenses. It's not as cut and dry as some seem to think.

The impact of the zone versus the new perimeter rules is overstated imo. All elite perimeter players are having career scoring years, even guys who've been in the league a number of years. So I tend to think that the new rules more than outweigh whatever disadvantages playing under zone brings. It's not a coincidence that 9 of the top 10 scorers are perimeter players, and that they're having their averages padded by 2-4 ppg by FT's. Not a single player averaged over 9 FTA in 1997, whereas we had 6 players over 10 FTA/gm (including AI at 11.5, by far the highest mark of his long career; usually a player's FTA's max out when their athleticism is at its peak in the mid-20's), and another at nearly 9 FTA/gm this past season. In my opinion, without the new rules this year, everyone's average would be depressed by 2-4 ppg depending on the player. Kobe would be least affected since he's more of a skilled offensive player and a jump-shooter, but would be around 32-33 ppg; guys like Wade, Arenas, and Lebron would drop 3-4 points imo, Lebron possibly less.


I agree with you that McGrady is a much tougher cover than Mullin, though.
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Old 09-12-2006, 11:56 AM   #17
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Let's not forgett that changes in the way defense is played also results in changes to the way offense is played, adjusting to the current rules.
I agree that todaythe top scorers get way too many free throws and that's one the reasons that the elite scorers average is up.
Of course it also has to do with them taking a lot more shots which in turn results in much lower FG percentage, if you compare it to the top scorers in the 90s.
Back on topic though since it's a series of 7 games i think that T-Mac could average 20-25 points MAYBE 30 if works like hell.
As stated above great offensive player will get their points.
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Old 09-12-2006, 11:57 AM   #18
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Look at what Pippen did to Magic Johnson and James Worthy during the 91 finals.

Now compare the caliber player of Magic vs TMac and Worthy vs TMac

I think that all 3 are awesome players!
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Old 09-12-2006, 11:58 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by MaxFly
Problem is that you have three elite (not just current, but NBA history elite) wing players who don't have others to share the scoring load with their teams... You take a closer look, and you realize that those three players are Bryant, Iverson, and Lebron... in general, they sorta stack up well to NBA history don't they... That stat doesn't prove much. It is more situational than institutional.

I agree those are quality players on teams without much help and the stat alone doesnt prove it but the stat plus what I can see does. The league not only has new rules but younger less bulky players. True shotblocking PFs and centers are a dying breed and regardless of the doubles and zones which are not really zones, it is easier to score now. Plus guys are all soft and friendly. T-Mac never faced the prime Bulls, Bad Boys or the Payton/Kemp Sonics. Those other guys did. That's all I'm saying.

BTW I am not doubting that T-Mac is a scoring beast. wish his ass would stay healthy.
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Old 09-12-2006, 12:57 PM   #20
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I think that the important thing to note is that Pippen would not be able to shut down an offensive player of T-Mac's calibur by himself. That would take a team effort. T-Mac is just too versitile.
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Old 09-12-2006, 01:39 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
The impact of the zone versus the new perimeter rules is overstated imo. All elite perimeter players are having career scoring years, even guys who've been in the league a number of years. So I tend to think that the new rules more than outweigh whatever disadvantages playing under zone brings. It's not a coincidence that 9 of the top 10 scorers are perimeter players, and that they're having their averages padded by 2-4 ppg by FT's. Not a single player averaged over 9 FTA in 1997, whereas we had 6 players over 10 FTA/gm (including AI at 11.5, by far the highest mark of his long career; usually a player's FTA's max out when their athleticism is at its peak in the mid-20's), and another at nearly 9 FTA/gm this past season. In my opinion, without the new rules this year, everyone's average would be depressed by 2-4 ppg depending on the player. Kobe would be least affected since he's more of a skilled offensive player and a jump-shooter, but would be around 32-33 ppg; guys like Wade, Arenas, and Lebron would drop 3-4 points imo, Lebron possibly less.


I agree with you that McGrady is a much tougher cover than Mullin, though.

I think that the effect the new perimeter defensive rules have on player scoring is being overstated. Remember, though defensive players can't harrass players like they could before, they also have more help in the form of earlier double teams. If we return things to how they were before, does anyone think that McGrady, Bryant, Wade and Lebron are going to find it harder to get their shots off? Being allowed to get the ball whereever they want without much difficulty. While being pushed and bumped will affect spot up shooters and shooters who need a little space to get their shot off, players like T-Mac and Wade are looking to drive. If you get to close to a player, they will drive right by you... the defensive player won't have the time nor space to react and shift position to cut off the lane. So in looking at players like T-Mac, and D. Wade, especially D. Wade, the zone defense is somewhat effective and the new rules do balance out the lack of handchecking.

We also have to acknowledge the fact that there has been an explosion of scoring guards and small forwards in the league and that there has been a decline in the quality of big men. I think that this, far more than the rule changes, have lead to the increased scoring of wing players. To further clarify, I don't think that the rule changes have had much effect on the quality of players coming into the leauge, and it is the quality of players coming in which is primarily responsible for the shift in scoring. As a result, the focus of the league has changed, because on average, the best players are no longer the big men.
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Old 09-12-2006, 02:48 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxFly
I think that the effect the new perimeter defensive rules have on player scoring is being overstated. Remember, though defensive players can't harrass players like they could before, they also have more help in the form of earlier double teams. If we return things to how they were before, does anyone think that McGrady, Bryant, Wade and Lebron are going to find it harder to get their shots off? Being allowed to get the ball whereever they want without much difficulty. While being pushed and bumped will affect spot up shooters and shooters who need a little space to get their shot off, players like T-Mac and Wade are looking to drive. If you get to close to a player, they will drive right by you... the defensive player won't have the time nor space to react and shift position to cut off the lane. So in looking at players like T-Mac, and D. Wade, especially D. Wade, the zone defense is somewhat effective and the new rules do balance out the lack of handchecking.

I just don't think the evidence bears that out, though. I think the opposite is true, as I said earlier: that the new perimeter rules more than outweigh the zone defense rules. As evidence, we can look at guys' production pre- and post-new rules and pre- and post-zone. Iverson, always a gifted scorer, had a career year, especially at the line (and also in terms of FG%, but this can be due to maturation as an offensive player); Pierce had a career year in terms of ppg, FTA/gm, and FG%; Kobe had, obviously, the best year of his career in terms of ppg; Tmac was injured so we can't draw conclusions; even jump-shooters like Redd and Allen had career years in ppg, with Redd's FG% staying the same and the only thing changing being +1.3 FTA/gm as compared to last season; Arenas, Wade, and Lebron haven't been in the league long enough for us to base anything on.

Overall, I think that the incidence of career years among veteran players, combined with the preponderance of perimeter players atop both the ppg and FTA/gm lists, begs certain conclusions. One of these is that we currently have a great crop of perimeter talent; another is that the new rules are inflating players' averages by a slight amount (2-4 ppg imo depending on the style of the player). You think it's solely the former while I think that it's a bit of both. There are people who say asinine things like, "if you put Wade in the early 90's he'd struggle to average 22 ppg!" etc., but these people are morons, quite frankly. However, I think that, based on the evidence, it's difficult to assert that the new rules haven't had some effect on production -- to what degree is a question we can quibble over.



Quote:
We also have to acknowledge the fact that there has been an explosion of scoring guards and small forwards in the league and that there has been a decline in the quality of big men. I think that this, far more than the rule changes, have lead to the increased scoring of wing players. To further clarify, I don't think that the rule changes have had much effect on the quality of players coming into the leauge, and it is the quality of players coming in which is primarily responsible for the shift in scoring. As a result, the focus of the league has changed, because on average, the best players are no longer the big men.

To go along with this, we also have to keep in mind that the new rules (zone etc.) have made it much more difficult for a traditional big man to impact the game offensively. Zone hurts bigs much more than it does perimeter players. Defensively, I think the trend away from big men being shotblockers/intimidators and towards being charge-takers is another factor responsible for the increase in ppg for some players. There used to be a lot more shotblocking 4's and 5's than there are now.


As for the topic question, I think TMac could average ~27-29 ppg on 43-46% shooting against Pippen, considering that Penny Hardaway averaged 25.5 ppg on 47% shooting against Pippen in the '96 playoffs (Penny had a great game 1 and then his percentages dropped, 38.3% FG in the final 3 games). Grant Hill also had success against Pippen, and neither of these players is as good an offensive player as a healthy Tmac (though they weren't nearly as far as most people think; their roles/styles kept their ppg down).

Last edited by Loki : 09-12-2006 at 03:48 PM.
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Old 09-12-2006, 04:05 PM   #23
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As good a scorer as T-Mac is, Drexler is a whole other level of player. A notch below Jordan. ....

Can you explain why you think Drexler is superior to McGrady?
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Old 09-12-2006, 04:45 PM   #24
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Can you explain why you think Drexler is superior to McGrady?

He's just a better player IMO. A better passer, rebounder, defender. Higher percentage shooter. Better teammate. More durable. As the best player on his team, he led his team to the finals twice and won one with Hakeem. Plus I have seen the full careers of both and saw Drexler from U of H to retirement justify his HOF status. with all that I give the nod to Clyde.
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Old 09-12-2006, 05:55 PM   #25
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You think it's solely the former while I think that it's a bit of both.

I don't think that the cause of the inflation of scoring numbers is soley based on the increase in talented players. I do agree that the game is being geared more towards perimeter players... However, I think that their increase in scoring largely results from these players being the focal points for their respective teams. While the game has indeed shifted to focus more on perimeter players, I think the reason for this is the decline of the "big man" and the increase in the number of talented perimeter players available, and more so than the lack of handchecking or rougher defense.

For many teams you see, there is a dynamic perimeter player who has the ball in his hands often. Paul Pierce, D. Wade. Lebron, Bryant, Ray Allen, Vince Carter, Richard Hamilton, etc... The rule changes didn't make these players. Now if you're contending that the rules make them look better than they really are, and that perimeter players had it worse in the past, I'd have to say that I think the recent rule changes have balanced the effect.

I don't think that you can simply look at numbers and come to a conclusion. You have to look at the dynamics of the game now. Guards are certainly going to have better stats because they find themselves having the ball in their hands more often. You can't pin it primarily on the rules.
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Old 09-12-2006, 05:57 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by allball
He's just a better player IMO. A better passer, rebounder, defender. Higher percentage shooter. Better teammate. More durable. As the best player on his team, he led his team to the finals twice and won one with Hakeem. Plus I have seen the full careers of both and saw Drexler from U of H to retirement justify his HOF status. with all that I give the nod to Clyde.

We were talking about scoring and offense... While Drexler is a higher percentage shooter, is he up there with McGrady in terms of scoring ability? Is he harder to stop than McGrady?
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Old 09-12-2006, 06:00 PM   #27
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pippen was an awesome player. i can remember watching a bulls game back in the day and he seemed to just come out of jordan's shadow and was going off. i think he could shut mcgrady down any day(bulls' pippen, not blazers' pippen).
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Old 09-12-2006, 06:11 PM   #28
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Quote:
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We were talking about scoring and offense... While Drexler is a higher percentage shooter, is he up there with McGrady in terms of scoring ability? Is he harder to stop than McGrady?

I think you just answered your own question. McGrady has never shot higher than .457. Clyde once shot .506 while averaging 28.6 per and played 81 games.. Now you say he is so tough to guard one one one. Why doesnt he shoot higher. The hardest guys I saw to guard one on one like Jordan, Shaq, Bird, Dr. J, David Thompson all at least approached or shot over .500. In his last three seasons McGrady has shot .417, .431 and .406. Now I know he's had health problems (he says LOL) but if he is so unstoppable, why is he not shooting a higher percentage? Again McGrady is one helluva offensive player but let's not be blinded by the present.

Last edited by allball : 09-12-2006 at 06:47 PM.
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Old 09-12-2006, 06:23 PM   #29
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Allball, Clyde was certainly a one-of-a-kind. A big fan here, i still have that large Portland Trailblazers jacket and a Drexler jersey in my closet somewhere.

I watched him play in the late 80's and early 90's, and saw a multi-dimensional player. He was always smooth scoring baskets, always gliding towards the hoop that ended in a ferocious dunk (remember that dunk on Cartwright in '92 finals?), rebound like a strong forward, and pass off the dribble while keeping his head down the entire time better than anyone else.

Too big for Jordan to post up, who hadda settle for 3's in the 92 finals.

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Old 09-12-2006, 06:57 PM   #30
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Too big for Jordan to post up, who hadda settle for 3's in the 92 finals.


Huh? Jordan posted up Clyde all series in the '92 Finals. Not sure what series you were watching. The rest of your post is correct, though.
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