All right, assuming the Celtics win tonight, what do you think are the odds that they would beat the Magic?
The way I figure it, Boston's been playing basically a six man rotation heavy minutes for the last two weeks, and they've only got one real center who could guard Dwight Howard. It's pretty much unrealistic to expect Perk to guard Dwight 40+ minutes a night without getting into serious foul trouble, plus Orlando's well-equipped to guard just about everyone on the Celtics. Ray Allen might be able to go berserk if Reddick has to guard him, but I could conceivably see Orlando going big, putting Turk at the 2 and playing someone like Gortat at power forward until Lee's healthy, which would probably improve the Magic's defense. Basically, I'm looking at the Magic winning in six, maybe even five.
I'll give Boston a 30% chance against Orlando but I really think Boston are going to be outmatched by the Magic's frontcourt. The Celtics don't really have anyone to "slow down" Dwight Howard. I'll take Orlando in 5.
I think the only chance of the Celtics advancing is if Garnett can play the 15-20 minutes a game that he could when he first came back from his injury. Even if he can't move as well as he should be able to, his presence on the floor alone on the offensive end will force Orlando's defense to pay less attention to Pierce, Rondo, and Allen. Even on the defensive end he could contribute taking fouls away from Perkins/Davis that otherwise would remove them. Without him on the floor they will most likely just let Big Baby try and beat them.