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Old 05-09-2009, 10:37 PM   #1
Thorpesaurous
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Default My Long Twist on a Mock Draft

This years draft is admittedly a little on the weak side, but I find it really intrigueing. I usually employ the tiered system of picking. You fill your need within a tier, unless someone from the higher tier is available, then you take him almost regardless of need. But this year is so jammed tight, if feels like outside of the first guy, anyone can go anywhere. I think that will lend itself to people being more likely to roll the dice, and pick guys they like with less concern for percieved value.
What I've done is created two lines of thinking. The first is what I think teams will do, based on percieved value, roster needs, and general rumors. The second is what I would do, if I were running each team. Again, I'm considering percieved value, so even if I'm not crazy about a guy, I wouldn't let him drop if he would have a huge value throughout the league, but my personal taste is more involved in each pick. This was far more complicated than I thought it would be, so there may be some mistakes, but here goes.
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Old 05-09-2009, 10:37 PM   #2
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Default Re: My Long Twist on a Mock Draft

1) KINGS
What I think will Happen: Blake Griffin – When you’re this bad it doesn’t make sense to draft for need. Not that they have any area all sewn up. But they did just take Jason Thompson last year who they like. Griffin’s combination of size and athleticism is just too much to take anyone else.

What I would do: Griffin – I’m pretty well on record of not being totally enamored with Griffin. Not through any real fault of his own. I just don’t think he’s going to measure bigger than 6-8, and while his post game is pretty well refined, and he’s got some face up game, I just don’t think he’s the kind of number one pick who’ll be the best player on a consistent contender. But there really isn’t anyone to challenge this. I said a few times I would have been tempted to roll the dice with Greg Monroe, but he’s not coming.

2)WIZ
What I think will Happen: Ricky Rubio – The value here has gotten to the point where you’d be hard pressed to take anyone else. And it’s not like he isn’t a valid prospect.

What I would do: Try like hell to trade the pick. I wouldn’t even ask for the moon to move down even five spots. I really like Rubio the basketball player, but I’m afraid of him as an NBA prospect. I’m still not convinced he can defend in Iso situations. His defensive strengths, his instincts and ability to cheat lanes is something he’ll be forced to relearn. Offensively his jumper is flawed to the point it may have to be rebuilt from the ground up. And it’s not just that it’s not pretty or inconsistent, but it’s slow. I’m afraid he’s not going to be able to make defenders come out to defend him honestly, which will cost him his penetration, which will hurt his ability to create angles to open cutters, and on and on. Plus, without the ball, he’s not terribly valuable, because he’s not going to thrive as a finisher or catch and shoot guy, and you lose all his creativity, so he loses his strength. On top of that, the Wiz are a horrible fit. Gilbert will demand the ball, and his contract makes him untradeable.
I have to keep the pick, I take James Harden. He fits in between Gilbert, Butler, and Jamison. He can handle the ball and create enough to let Gilbo and Butler play off screens for stretches. He’s almost certain to be a good pro, even if his ceiling is limited athletically.


3)CLIPPERS
What I think will Happen: Jordan Hill I suppose, only because it’s the name most commonly put here. I don’t get it.

What I would do: There’s a few options here. I’d seriously consider Thabeet since Camby’s an expirer and I’m sure they’ll try to move him, but they already have Jordan. And Rubio would be a much better fit here than with the Wiz, but Baron Davis is as much stuck here as Gilbo is in Washington. A bit of a reach, but I take Earl Clark. He fits because he stretches the floor as a PF, yet can defend down at SF. Freeing up space for either ZBo or Kaman on the block, and allowing them to go small and take advantage of the slashers they have in Baron, Gordan, and Thornton.

4)THUNDER:
What I think will Happen: Hasheem Thabeet. My guess is they figure this will solidify them defensively. There front line is pourous defensively with Krstic and Collison. The roster really isn’t bad at many spots. They could go Harden here, but the bigs are going to be few and far between.

What I would do: Well, in my scenario, Rubio has fallen, and this is a spot that works for him, and it’s not as if I don’t like him. I understand the allure of Thabeet, but I wouldn’t have a huge problem with Krstic and Collison going into next year plus a free agent or their other pick. Westbrook was great last year, but he’ll always be more basketball player than point guard. Plus he can cover for one of Rubio’s weaknesses in that he can defend the quicker of the one or two. There some smart players on this roster, and that’s something that Rubio will need to thrive. This team would become even more fun to watch.

5)WOLVES:
What I think will Happen: Brandon Jennings. Sebastian Telfair has had enough time to prove that he’s not a top flight NBA PG. Jennings can change ends with this young roster.

What I would do: A bit of a reach probably, but there’s a reason, Demar Derozen. Derozen reeks of a guy to me that will be a better pro than a collegian. His athleticism is off the charts, and he’s got the foundation of a good jumper. After Foye, Gomes and Mike Miller are both expirers, and could be used as bait. I think Brewer is terrible. Carney’s not unlike Derozen, but they could use the depth here, and Derozen’s upside is huge. More importantly, I agree that they could use a PG, but the position is deep this year, and they have two more first rounders. They could even package those and move up if they really fell for a specific guy like Jennings. Or they could wait and go after Lawson, Flynn, Holliday, Maynor, etc.

6)GRIZZ:
What I think will Happen: Earl Clark. I question why Jordan Hill is projected to go top three, well here’s the reason. The Grizz have Mayo and Gay locked up, and probably don’t want to give up on Conley just yet. But up front, while Gasol was a good find, and brings a lot to the table, they’re really thin. Darko, Hakeem Warick, and Darell Arthur isn’t exactly the Big Three. And with all that, there’s not even you’re typical foreign big guy who can touch the rim without jumping to reach at here. Clark can at least masquerade at PF, and he’s another versatile guy who makes them harder yet to match up with.

What I would do: I already have Clark gone on this end. If I could, I’d try to move Conley, who I like, because Mayo is so good with the ball, and try to fill that big man spot with my later pick and or whatever I got for Conley. Then here I’d take Steph Curry, because his shooting would thrive next to a creative SG like Mayo, where he wouldn’t have to do the bulk of the creating. He’d be a great fit next to Mayo. Thabeet is definitely a possibility here too. The bigs are extremely weak in this draft, which is why Jordan Hill is a top five prospect here. The other option would be go Thabeet here, and maybe get Teague with the later first rounder, who’s shooting would play similarly to Curry’s.

7)WARRIORS:
What I think will Happen: This team is pretty much assembled. Bedrins is big and can run and rebound. They have young bigs in Wright and Randolf. Ellis is running the show, Jamal Crawford, Maggette, and Steven Jackson have the wing spots pretty well manned. There’s not a ton available here that will change those rotations. The next chunk of players rating wise are all wings, but with their contracts, they’d be hard pressed to move any of the Golden State trio out of the rotation. But Golden state often plays the you can never have too much of a good thing card. I’d see them going Tyreke Evans here. He’s not my ideal player, but he’s shown some playmaking ability, which would make him an asset to a team that pushes tempo. My guess is his workouts will push him on front of Harden on the Warriors board, because they seem to value athleticism more than some teams.

What I would do: But since he’s fallen in this take, they’d almost have to take Thabeet. He’s a big value at 7, and he’d fit alright because his defense and rebounding could spark the break, and he can really run. It’d be nice if he could catch the thing. That presence would allow them to go smaller at the four. Between he and Bedrins, they should be able to keep one of them on the floor between their twelve fouls.

8)KNICKS:
What I think will Happen: This is a tough spot for the Knicks. They need plenty of help, but the guys who can really help them are pretty much all gone. They desperately need size, and I had felt like Clark would be perfect for their system, but I just don’t see him falling this far. The next best big at this point is probably Blair, but this is too soon. Harden would be a great value here, and even though they probably don’t need him, they’d almost have to take him. He could work next to Nate, because he can initiate the offense in the half court.

What I would do: I’m really tempted to go with one of the PGs here. Flynn or Lawson would both be interesting hand the keys to the Dantoni scheme. But both have size issues, and they’ve already got Nate Robinson if they want an undersized out of control PG. If Hill wasn’t here, I’d take Flynn, but even I have to admit that Hill is too good a value this far down not to take, especially considering how weak the bigs are in this draft, and how much the Knicks need the help up front.

9)RAPTORS:
What I think will Happen: Finally a team who’s needs match what’s available. An athletic wing player. Demar Derozen. There are other players of similar ilk floating around at this point, but I feel like Derozen’s youth and body will move him up the board in workouts because he is a monster physically.

What I would do: Well, I have Derozen off this board, so I take a different version of the same type of player. Terrence Williams. He’s not my favorite of these wing guys, that would be James Johnson, but with Bosh and Bargs, I’d rather have a more pure penetrator and shooter than an all around guy like Johnson. I do like Williams, and think he could have a particularly effective career if he’s willing to use his gifts defensively too. I’d be intrigued at trying DeJuan Blair, and playing almost completely inside out. Bargs at Center facing up outside, Bosh playing SFs defensively, but mid post PF on offense, and Blair roughhousing on the block on offense, and playing the post option defensively on the other end, but that’s too weird even for me.

10)BUCKS:
What I think will Happen: Jonny Flynn. Sessions deal is up, and I think the similarities between Flynn and TJ Ford who the Bucks had so much success with are a lot to overlook. Bogut’s tendency to play at the high post, along with Villanueva’s face up game as a PF mean a lot of penetrating room for Flynn.

What I would do: Jonny Flynn. Although I’d be tempted again to chase Blair, for a lot of the same reasons I said about the Raptors. He’ll work best next to a high post center. I actually prefer Flynn to Jennings at this point.

11)NETS:
What I think will Happen: James Johnson. Such an ideal fit. His size even lets them function better when Yi is facing up from the PF spot, with Lopez playing some high post, with Ryan Anderson playing as a face up big.

What I would do: Johnson. He’s a great fit here as a do everything type SF. He’s still got some work to do on his jumper, especially from range, but he can fill a lot of holes. I would consider this a big sleeper at this point.

Last edited by Thorpesaurous : 05-09-2009 at 10:59 PM.
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Old 05-09-2009, 10:38 PM   #3
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Default Re: My Long Twist on a Mock Draft

12)BOBCATS:
What I think will Happen: This teams got a lot of big bodies, and Augustin, pretty much set running the point. But outside of Gerald Wallace, the wing positions are spotty. Raja Bell has aged rapidly over the past few years. I’m guessing the Jordan/Larry Brown duo lean toward Wayne Ellington among a crowded group.

What I would do: Gerald Henderson. Ellington is a better shooter, but not by much. And Henderson has more creativity, more playmaking ability, and has a chance to be the type of guy who can get a shot for himself, which outside of the stars, is a rare ability.

13)PACERS:
What I think will Happen: Ty Lawson. They have to be looking for insurance on TJ Ford at this point.

What I would do: I would wait a bit to chase Ford’s replacement. As I said, there’s depth at the position, and Jarrett Jack is fine as a backup for now. I’d take Blair. He’d be a nice fit between Dunleavy and Murphy. Lawson may make more sense, in that they still have Foster, and just took Hibbert last year, so another big may not be a priority. But quality size is thin in this draft, so I’d roll the dice. Or they could still use more wing depth after Rush and Granger. But I feel like Blair is a good value here. Chasing the PG isn’t that necessary as Dunleavy did so much of the initiating last year.

14)SUNS:
What I think will Happen: Gerald Henderson. Still chasing a perimeter defensive presence, and needing someone to step in and take Grant Hill’s minutes. Why not another Dukie? Richardson could move down to the three.

What I would do: Tyreke Evans. With it looking like Phx wants to up the tempo again, Evans would be of particular value because he has some point guard skills, so you know he’ll play in the open court. He also gives them some perimeter defensive presence. Also, because he’s 6-6 and has some PG skills, you can play him next to Barbosa too.

15)PISTONS:
What I think will Happen: A lot of money is coming off the books in Detroit. That also means a lot of roles to fill. Rip, Stuckey, Prince, and Bynum are the only thing I’m counting on to be there. And Rip’s expirer and talent could wind up very much in play if they go into full blown rebuilding mode. Unfortunately I think they’ve hit the cutoff of genuine prospects. Dumars has had some luck with undersized bigs before, so I could see them going after Blair, who’d be fair value here.

What I would do: I like Blair plenty, probably more than most (although I already have him gone), but if I were running a team in this drastic a need of remolding I wouldn’t bother picking a guy with such a limited ceiling. I’d be more inclined to gamble on BJ Mullens. Physically the guy is a stud. He’s got tons of issues, but this isn’t going to be a one year thing, so I’d roll with the guy with the highest ceiling at this point, even if it means possibly busting. PG is one of the few spots I wouldn’t consider a need, so Branden Jennings continues to fall.

16)BULLS:
What I think will Happen: Everyone’s excited about the young Bulls after their breakthrough Celtic series. And at this point, it’s going to be hard to find someone to fill the roll Ben Gordan may be walking away from. I’m guessing the idea the Steph Curry is similar would appeal to them.

What I would do: I have Curry long gone at this point. But I wouldn’t want his slight frame next to rose for extended minutes anyway. I’d take Chase Budinger. He’s too big and slow of foot to defend the two, and he’d be hard pressed to take too much time from Deng when he’s healthy. But his catch and shoot ability, and ability to run the floor would fit very well with Rose in both spots. His game may actually pair up better with Rose than the superior player Deng’s does.

17)SIXERS:
What I think will Happen: With Andre Miller sweeping the ashes of the bridge he burn t into the river, the Sixers are fortunate there’s so much depth at the PG this year. Maynor’s athleticism put next to Thad Young and Iggy, along with what would be considered value here, play well.

What I would do: In my scenario, Branden Jennings has plummeted, and while I’m still not chasing a ball dominant PG on a team that’s already got Iggy, he’s too good a value to pass up.

18)WOLVES:
What I think will Happen: My guess on the front end for the Wolves is that they already took their PG in Jennings. That leaves them picking from best available now. Gani Lawal is a physical specimen, and would offer a good pairing defensively next to either Love or Jefferson. It would round out their young front line rotation.

What I would do: If I were running them, I’dve reached earlier on Derozan, and hoped a PG fell to me here. And what do you know, I think it worked. I already have him gone in the other string, but here, Ty Lawson slipped. He could make things a lot easier for the rest of that roster. And his shooting is good enough to play off the ball when Foye has it going.

19)HAWKS:
What I think will Happen: Bibby is up, as is Pachulia, so this team will need help in both spots. All its wings are filled, and there’s not a lot of help for them at this point. I figure they’ll take Teague in an effort to reload Bibby’s role as a spot up PG. There’s some similarity between Teague and Acie Law, but the new guy is always more interesting.

What I would do: The fits are even worse at this point with me running the teams. Lawal could help fill the void Pachulia left behind just in terms of physicality, and he’s as good a value as any at this point.

20)JAZZ:
What I think will Happen: Boozer is all but gone, so I’d expect them to be looking big. Hansborough has the pedigree for a Jerry Sloan coached team, in that he’s tough, and you know he’s been well coached.

What I would do: Assuming he stays in, I’d much rather take my chances with Pat Patterson. He’s already gone through knee problems. But I love his foot work and work on the glass. Either guy is probably best suited as a bench player, but I’d rather have Patterson’s body to work with.

21)HORNETS:
What I think will Happen: This team desperately needs athletes to run with Paul. One of the wings will fall, I’m not sure which one, but in this scenario it’s Terrence Williams. Who’d be a genuine steal at this point. The guy has a lottery body. The weakest point in his game is probably questionable decision making, but he was being asked to run offense at Louisville, I don’t see the Hornets having a need for that.

What I’d do: In this version the wing that fell is Wayne Ellington, not surprisingly, because he’s probably my least favorite of the group. Although for what it’s worth, he’s probably the best pure shooter of the bunch, so having him flattening out next to Paul isn’t the worst fit in the world. He’s already run next to an elite college PG to the tune of a national title. Hell, he may be a better fit than Williams would be.

22)MAVERICKS:
What I think Will Happen: There’s no PG at this point that’s going to allow them to let Kidd walk. My gut tells me he’ll be back next year anyway. They’re playing better now, but this team at midseason was dying for a shake up. It won’t be Dirk, I don’t think they can replace Kidd, Terry’s deal is too long to move. That leaves Howard. He’s already been bandied about in trade rumors for a few seasons. Bass is up too at the end of the year, so they may be looking for a SF. I guess DeJuan Summers, adding a SF in the mix who can catch and shoot next to the already able Dirk and Terry would give Kidd a lot of kick options.

What I would do: Kidd, while old, will still demand plenty on the open market. Even if they keep him in the short term, they could be looking to groom his eventual successor, so I take Jrue Holiday. His size makes him a less than ideal fit next to Terry, who’s contract would actually run longer than this pick’s rookie deal still.

23)KINGS:
What I think Will Happen: I already had the Kings taking the cream of this draft, and a big to boot. They’ve still got Kevin Martin to help space the floor, but what Griffin will need is a point guard who can push the tempo, because one of his greatest assets is that he can beat PF from end to end. It’ll go to waste however without a PG who can take advantage of it. Jrue Holiday is young, but this could be a situation where a team feels like it’s getting a player who would’ve gone much higher a year later, and the team is in no position to be in a hurry with player development yet anyway.

What I would do: I already have Holiday gone in this string, but there’s still a PG who can push the tempo plenty available. Eric Maynor has a pretty solid flaw, he’s not a good shooter, but he’s physically gifted for a PG at this point. He’s got good size, and he’ll defend for you, and he wants to run.

Last edited by Thorpesaurous : 05-09-2009 at 11:01 PM.
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Old 05-09-2009, 10:39 PM   #4
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Default Re: My Long Twist on a Mock Draft

24)BLAZERS:
What I think will happen: If for no other reason than it’s being rumored all over the place, Omri Casspi.

What I would do: Casspi. He’s got some upside just because of his long body, but more importantly, they have no one of consequence coming off the books next year. They’re a good young team, trying to develop chemistry. They’re probably not going to find anyone here who’s going to crack their rotation. They simply need to get better together, and adding another guy into the mix probably isn’t going to help. The best thing about Casspi is that they can probably keep him in Isreal for a little while, and when they have to make a choice about the Outlaw, Webster, Batum, Rudy group, they’ll have someone ready to come in on a rookie contract to help soak up some of those minutes.

25)THUNDER:
What I think will Happen: This is one of my favorite picks at this point. Sam Young. The guy is a stud, and I’d be shocked if he’s not a lot bigger than his listed 6-6. He’s also a lot more athletic than he’ll probably measure out. He comes out of a gymnast background, so his athleticism is tied up in body control, which is a little harder to measure than just sprinting and vertical. And he’s probably a better shooter than most of the other wing players taken ahead of him. His dropping has as much to do with his age, he’s 24, as it does with his game. Durant can’t play the two.

What I would do: Hansborough. I’m probably as big a Sam Young fan as there is out here in draftville, but by the way things went early for the Thunder in my string, with Rubio falling, they could really use the help up front. Hansborough is not going to be a star, but here they really won’t ask him to be. In fact, his dirty work approach will fit well.

26)BULLS:
What I think will Happen. Chase Budinger. I had them taking Budinger earlier, so I’d have to consider this a gem of a find for them at this point. Like I said before, his catch and shoot skill set will play really well next to a true penetrate and kick PG.

What I would do: My GMing may be coming into question if I keep taking guys only to have them fall to a later pick from the same team. Although here’s I’d finally take Sam Young. As I said above, I’m a huge Young fan, and for a good team that’s not got a ton of developing to do, and is more adding pieces, I’m not sure I’d rather have Budinger and Young than Curry and Budinger. But Curry’s value will be too high for him to get much past the Bulls earlier pick.

27)GRIZZ:
What I think will Happen. I had them taking Clark earlier, but they’re pretty set at the wing spots, so I’d still be looking big here. This is pretty well into best player available territory anyway. Still available, I’m guessing they take Pat Patterson. A little undersized, and there’s questions about his knees, but he’s right he’s a very tough match up on the block. And with Gasol able to knock down a jumper and pull centers away from the hoop, Patterson could get some mismatches down there.

What I would do: I’ve got fewer bigs left on this side of the board. The best body available at this point is probably Mullens, but he’s too big to play with Gasol, and they’re still working on Darko. I’d probably go best player available, and take Summers. Teague is still around, but I already took Curry early. Summers may be able to see some minutes as an undersized PF at 6-8. And his catch and shoot would be nice there with so many playmakers with the ball in Mayo, Gay, and probably still Conley (if I couldn’t move him for him.) More likely he’d serve as a back up to Gay, which would be fine, because when Gay’s out the ball will be in Mayo’s hands even more, and Mayo can create jumpers for him.

28)WOLVES:
What I think will Happen: This is their third pick of the first round, and I had them taking earlier Branden Jennings and Gani Lawal. This isn’t a play I like, but this third guaranteed contract would put them close to the cap number, so they may go international to keep a man under rights but off the contract. I guess Emir Preldzic, if only because he’s got a body that’s got the most room to fill out, and he’s already a better ball handler and shooter than the other foreigner’s available at this point, even if they’re better athletes. He’s also still only 21.

What I would do: I wouldn’t be opposed to crossing the cap number here, if for no other reason than it gives me an MLE to use. At this close, I feel like holding back costs you two players by costing you that MLE. I’d take a guy here I think is a little underrated as a second rounde, Jeff Pendergraph. The guy is a really good face up shooter for a big, and plays with a lot of energy, a good finisher around the hoop, as evidenced by his almost 70% from the field last year. I know he’s a little light in the shorts for an NBA big, but he can fill out. He’s got a little Kurt Thomas to his game. He could play next to either Love or Al because of that face up jumper. And he could turn into a really good pick and pop type big.

29)LAKERS:
What I think will Happen: The best body left on the board is certainly Mullens, but they have little use for him with Bynum. There major missing piece next year would be Odom should he leave, but there’s not replacement for a guy like that here. There’s a couple guys who I like as triangle guys here. One is Pendergraph, because he can knock down shots as a weakside big, but I don’t think they’ll chase that. Another is Derrick Brown. He moves very well for a SF, and his jumper would allow him to play on the weakside some too. I’d be intrigued by Dante Cunningham too. His post game as a SF would make him a good bench focul point in the triangle, and his cut and finish game could play on the weakside, but he’d have to add some serious range to his jumper. Josh Heytvelt can knock down weakside jumpers too.

What I would do: Well, I know they have Fisher signed next year, and I’m sure they’re not giving up on Farmar, but this would be a great value and fit if he fell here, Jeff Teague. Outside of Curry, probably the best shooter among the PGs, so ideal for the weakside of triangle. And at 6-2, he’s bigger than most, which Phil likes. Honestly, there’s a lot of a young Derrick Fisher in him. And if he could push the ball some, he could get them some of the easy shots they miss without a true point out there.

30)CAVALIERS:
What I think will Happen: At this point, you don’t find a lot of physically gifted, 7-0, 275 lb guys, and Mullens is still here. Plus he’s a local kid. They won’t lose much next year. Joe Smith and Wally are about it. I’m guessing they hope Pavlavic returns to two years ago’ form to replace Wally, and perhaps Hickson can step up and take some of Smith’s role. The back court is pretty well tied up, Mo, Booby, Delonte are all signed up. But Ben Wallace, Varejao, and Z are running out after next year, which I’m sure they’re a little relieved about. So a big project isn’t a bad idea. I wouldn’t be shocked if Pendergraph went here, if only because his face up game as a big would free up space for Lebron to drive or (god willing) post up. But in the end, the potential is too much to pass up this far down.

What I would do: As I said, the backcourt is pretty well filled up, so my favorite bigs left would be Cunningham, Taj Gibson, and Heytvelt. And for reasons not unlike why l would have liked Pendergraph here, I’d take Heytvelt. He’s a tough kid, and he’s got that face up jumper to make space for Lebron. He’s got a little young Brad Miller in him.

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Old 05-10-2009, 12:38 AM   #5
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Default Re: My Long Twist on a Mock Draft

Good read as always and I like that you talk about percieved value and the difference from what the teams should do to will do- but your order seems very odd to me

What makes you such a fan of earl clark or hill? How can you justify flynn and lawson over holiday? Why is holiday not a top 10 prospect to you?

the last position okc will search for with this high pick is pg. I understand if they have to but I'm thinking they know they did the right thing with westbrook

Lakers win your draft w teague at the end of the 1st(not happening, as teague is also going to be a better pro than flynn and way better than lawson)
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Old 05-10-2009, 12:49 AM   #6
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Default Re: My Long Twist on a Mock Draft

Awesome to see you taking the time out to do this. Rep to you.
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Old 05-10-2009, 09:51 AM   #7
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Default Re: My Long Twist on a Mock Draft

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Originally Posted by el gringos
Good read as always and I like that you talk about percieved value and the difference from what the teams should do to will do- but your order seems very odd to me

What makes you such a fan of earl clark or hill? How can you justify flynn and lawson over holiday? Why is holiday not a top 10 prospect to you?

the last position okc will search for with this high pick is pg. I understand if they have to but I'm thinking they know they did the right thing with westbrook

Lakers win your draft w teague at the end of the 1st(not happening, as teague is also going to be a better pro than flynn and way better than lawson)


Thanks for actually reading it. This was a much bigger pain in the ass than I even anticipated, as it was difficult to keep track of both lines of thought. A player may be gone in one sequence but not the other, and it was hard to keep track of who where.

I'm not a big fan Jordan Hill, actually quite the opposite. But he seems to be so universally considered the third best prospect in this draft. I just couldn't bring myself to take him that high. I had him slipping to the Knicks at 8 in my version. And even then, am not thrilled with choice. But at some point, if a guy is generally considered a top five prospect, even if you don't like him, you're almost forced to take him just because he'll hold more value for you around the league than the guy you may prefer.

Clark I have to admit I'm fascinated by. I've said a few times on here that I think he will disappoint, because he's doesn't have a star mentality, and fans always want that out of a lottery pick, even though it's rarely the case. I've frequently compared him to Derrick McKey. What I like about him is that I think he's poised to be a better pro than a collegian because he's got the perfect mismatch game. He can shoot over SFs, and break down PFs. He's insanely long. I think he'll be a plus defender too. In the end, he has as much upside as almost anyone, you just wish he had the mentality to take over games, but what intrigues me is that I think he's almost bust proof, because of all the intangible things he brings to the table. That mentality means he can thrive without being the man, which is a tough transition for a lot of college stars. Plus he'll bring rebounding and defense. There's just a lot to like. If there were more star power in this draft, he'd be a guy who slipped.

I agree that OKC is not going to be searching for a PG with that first pick. But if Rubio were to fall that far, he's a guy who's value would be almost impossible to overlook. He's almost universally considered the number two prospect. One rule I had was that I wouldn't manufacture trades. And if he fell this far, I'd be shocked if the Thunder didn't trade the pick. In fact, Rubio fits so poorly with the Wizards, I wouldn't be shocked to see them move out if they actually land the second pick. But this is another case sort of like Hill, where he's almost too good a prospect not to take here in spite of needs.
The PG who falls furthest in my scenario is Jennings, who I think will go Fifth, but in my take would fall to 17th. And frankly, that was the toughest choice for me was Flynn or Jennings at ten. With Jennings gone, I have no problem taking Flynn, but any of another four PGs could go there. But Jennings really may be a matter of percieved value there. I just think Flynn changes ends and gets into the lane in a way that doesn't dominate the ball as much as what Jennings does, and he'd work so well with the Bucks who's center plays high, and who's PF and wings are really shooters. Jennings still strikes me as more iso and PnR oriented.

On Flynn, I'll be honest, that was the hardest spot for me. There are so many PGs who are so closely rated, that I feel like there's going to be a ton of possibilities. And they're going to be spread all over the place, because not every team has a need there. So two guys may be considered near equals, and one will go top ten and the other may just squeak into the first round. I actually really like Calathes too and he would fall well into the second round. I actually think Alex Ruoff could fit well in the right situation too. Both have size and solid jumpers, and if Teague didn't fall in my scenario, I would have reached probably for Calathes with the Lakers.

Holliday I just don't see as a true PG yet. Part of that comes from playing with Collison, which also affected my perception of Westbrook, but Westbrook measured out off the charts physically, and was in a relatively weak draft for his position. With so many other refined options, I think it will be easy for Holiday to slip, especially since he won't grade out physically the way Westbrook did. And his limited production leaves a lot guesswork to be done.
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Old 05-10-2009, 10:11 AM   #8
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Default Re: My Long Twist on a Mock Draft

Wow you have Josh Heytvelt going in the first round! Posterize doesn't even seem to think he'll get drafted.

BTW, Patrick Patterson pulled out of the draft and where is Nick Calathes? I swear if he goes in the second round in the real draft, I'm going to go nuts.
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Old 05-10-2009, 11:50 AM   #9
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Default Re: My Long Twist on a Mock Draft

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Wow you have Josh Heytvelt going in the first round! Posterize doesn't even seem to think he'll get drafted.

BTW, Patrick Patterson pulled out of the draft and where is Nick Calathes? I swear if he goes in the second round in the real draft, I'm going to go nuts.


I was going to wait to do this in part because guys still may come or go. And some it will change more this year than ever based on what the final order turns out to be.
Heytvelt is definitely a reach, but like I said, there's so much parity among so many of the prospects that I think you'll see more reaching for fit than in most years.

I like Calathes a lot myself, but there are a ton of PGs, and that will move him down.

Normally, I figure a block of certain players will go between say 6 and 13, but in what order, I don't know. And of those guys, one will probably fall because of a reach by some team in those spots, and he'll then go in the next three or four picks. But this year, those tiers of seperation are incredibly unclear. Moreso than I can ever remember.
I think that will lead to a few things. One is more reaching for fit than usual. As is the case with Heytvelt. And secondly, in large part because of the first, guys plummetting down the board. In the case of Calathes, there are only so many teams that need a PG, and if enough teams that don't need one aren't so overwhelmed by the talent of say a Lawson or Holiday that they feel they have to take him where they are (that's the balance of prospect effect), and they take a guy who's a better fit for them (like a face up big who may not be as highly graded, but is close enough), then the next PG needy team will find someone falling to them who they normally wouldn't expect. Which will drive a guy who may be among my top thirty prospects, but say seventh at his position, way down the board.

This isn't a great draft, because the top end just isn't there, but I feel like it's really deep with contributing roster player types. Moreso than usual.
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Old 05-10-2009, 01:58 PM   #10
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Default Re: My Long Twist on a Mock Draft

Good work, lots of effort put into it. My first gripe is the Pistons drafting Blair, why would they draft him when they already have Maxiell?
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Old 05-10-2009, 06:24 PM   #11
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Good work, lots of effort put into it. My first gripe is the Pistons drafting Blair, why would they draft him when they already have Maxiell?

Thanks, and if you made it to the Pistons without a gripe, I'm alright with that.
My rational for the Pistons chasing Blair has something to do with the success Dumars had with Maxiel. I don't think he'll be afraid of the height issues, and Dumars seems to like major program players.
Also, I was under the impression Maxiel came off the books next year. Along with Rasheed, McDyess, and Walter Herman, leaving them painfully thin up front, so I figured they'd try like hell to go big, and Blair is the best available big at that point.
With Rip, Prince, Stuckey, Bynum, and even Afflalo, it didn't seem to make much sense to after another wing guy with all the other holes in place. Although I could see Rip and his expirer put on the block.
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Old 05-10-2009, 10:46 PM   #12
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Default Re: My Long Twist on a Mock Draft

I really aplaud the fact that you did homework and put forth alot of effort in this mock draft scenario. But a good bit of those picks look off on both lines. Williams wont go lottery and jennings wont fall past pick 8. Thats just a few players I think your off on. But it was a good read.
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Old 05-11-2009, 02:59 AM   #13
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Default Re: My Long Twist on a Mock Draft

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24)BLAZERS:
What I think will happen: If for no other reason than it’s being rumored all over the place, Omri Casspi.

What I would do: Casspi. He’s got some upside just because of his long body, but more importantly, they have no one of consequence coming off the books next year. They’re a good young team, trying to develop chemistry. They’re probably not going to find anyone here who’s going to crack their rotation. They simply need to get better together, and adding another guy into the mix probably isn’t going to help. The best thing about Casspi is that they can probably keep him in Isreal for a little while, and when they have to make a choice about the Outlaw, Webster, Batum, Rudy group, they’ll have someone ready to come in on a rookie contract to help soak up some of those minutes.

After the Oden debacle I don't want to see a talent like Casspi go to the Blazer organization. He may only be projected to be late first round or early second round but his talent is genuine. I don't want to see potential wasted again from poor management.
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Old 05-12-2009, 01:12 PM   #14
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Default Re: My Long Twist on a Mock Draft

sorry hardens not going #8, he's a top 5 lock! and jordan hill is not going #3?!? i don't care what mock drafts says... a mock draft is exactly what it is, a mock draft... i feel most pro scouts realize jordan hills a high energy hustle guy like a verajao, noah, amundson, miki moore... isn't it funny how all these guys kinda look like each other? PUHAHAHAHAHAHAHA LOL anyways those type of players are not lottery worthy altho i have a feeling some late lottery will take a bite on him and jordan hill goes #9-12, i also have ;psycho tyler hansbrough going to the bulls at #16
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Old 05-12-2009, 02:37 PM   #15
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sorry hardens not going #8, he's a top 5 lock! and jordan hill is not going #3?!? i don't care what mock drafts says... a mock draft is exactly what it is, a mock draft... i feel most pro scouts realize jordan hills a high energy hustle guy like a verajao, noah, amundson, miki moore... isn't it funny how all these guys kinda look like each other? PUHAHAHAHAHAHAHA LOL anyways those type of players are not lottery worthy altho i have a feeling some late lottery will take a bite on him and jordan hill goes #9-12, i also have ;psycho tyler hansbrough going to the bulls at #16


On my side of it I have Harden going two, and Hill falling to eight, so I guess we agree.
I think what may happen though is that the depth at the SG spot, and the fact that Harden will more than likely look a lot better actually playing basketball than he does working out, may cause him to slip some. And vice versa, Hill will move up because he'll look great in workouts, and there is almost no depth at the big spots in this draft. It's not what I would do personally, but I wouldn't be shocked if it happened that way.
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