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Old 06-19-2009, 02:14 PM   #1
monthh
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Default My Complete Draft Breakdown

I haven't had much time to post here this year, but I have been following the draft just as close has I have always done. These are my rankings and thoughts on the different prospects.

Position Breakdown

Point Guards:
1. Ricky Rubio
2. Brandon Jennings
3. Johnny Flynn
4. Jeff Teague
5. Stephan Curry
6. Ty Lawson
7. Eric Maynor
8. Darren Collison
9. Patrick Mills
10. Nick Calathes
11. Rodrigue Beaubois
12. A.J. Price
13. Jerel McNeal
14. Tyrese Rice
15. Curtis Jerrells
16. Jeremy Pargo
17. Josh Akognon
18. Dominic James
19. A.J. Abrams
20. Aaron Jackson

I love this PG class. If I need depth or just added skill at point, I am trading into the last 1st round or somewhere in the 2nd round to get one of these guys. I'm not sold on any of these guys being stars beyond Rubio, but they all should be NBA caliber PG that will help teams. Curry is obviously the big surprise here, but I'm not sold on him as a PG. Maybe I should have included him with the combo-gaurds, but I think he will need to play the point in the NBA.

Combo-Guards:
1. Jrue Holiday
2. Sergio Llull
3. Nando De Colo
4. Lester Hudson
5. Jack McClinton
6. Patrick Beverley
7. Daniel Hackett

This is not a real strong CG class as you can see. Holiday is the stud here, but Colo and Hudson could get drafted. I really like Hackett, but he will have to earn a spot in the NBA down the road.

Shooting Gaurds:
1. Demar DeRozan
2. James Harden
3. Tyreke Evans
4. Gerald Henderson
5. Wayne Ellington
6. Marcus Thorton
7. Jermaine Taylor
8. Dionte Christmas
9. Toney Douglas
10. Danny Green
11. Jodie Meeks
12. Wesley Matthews
13. Paul Harris
14. Lee Cummard
15. Stefan Jackson

While the PG position is the strongest in the draft, I think this SG class may provide more stars than any other position. While Rubio is the only star PG in my eyes, I think DeRozan, Harden, and Evans could all be great in the NBA. After that there are a lot of solid players that could find spots in the NBA. The last 4 or 5 guys are kind of a big drop-off though.

Swingmen:
1. Sam Young
2. Chase Budinger
3. Terrence Williams
4. Emir Preldzic
5. Joe Ingles
6. Christian Eyenga
7. Micah Downs
8. Dar Tucker

I'm actually pretty fond of these guys. Young, Budinger, and Williams should make solid pros and the Europeans could be sleepers in the 2nd round. I think liked Downs and Tucker and they could come up out of the D-Leauge.

Small Forwards:
1. James Johnson
2. Earl Clark
3. Austin Daye
4. Omri Casspi
5. Derrick Brown
6. DaJuan Summers
7. Victor Claver
8. Jonas Jerebko
9. Milenko Tepic
10. Marko Keselj

This is really a hit-or-miss class of SF. Some people love some of these guys, others wouldn't touch them. I really like Johnson and Claver. The others I probably wouldn't be too high on even though Clark, Daye, Casspi, Brown, and Summers clearly have a lot of upside. Once again their are some foreign sleepers that might make solid 2nd rounders.

Combo-Forwards:
1. Dante Cunningham
2. Ahmad Nivins
3. Nemanja Aleksandrov

Really not much to discuss here. Some people consider Griffin a CF, but I think he is set at PF. One of these guys might get taken in the 2nd round, but I don't expect much from any of them. I will admit up front, however, that I was on the Aleksandrov bandwagon a few years ago calling him a future top 5 pick.

Power Forward:
1. Blake Griffin
2. Jordan Hill
3. DeJuan Blair
4. Tyler Hansbrough
5. Taj Gibson
6. Jeff Pendergraph
7. Jeff Adrien
8. DeMarre Carroll
9. Leo Lyons
10. Jon Brockman
11. Brandon Costner
12. Kevin Rogers
13. Tony Gaffney
14. Chinemelu Elonu
15. Connor Atchley

This draft is really weak inside. Outside of Griffin I am not sold on any of these guys being more than role players. Really past Gibson, I don't know if any of these guys will play more than a season or two in the NBA.

Power Forward/Centers:
1. Josh Heytvelt
2. Henk Norel
3. Vitor Faverani
4. Chris Johnson
5. Goran Suton

Another weak class here. I like all of these guys as 2nd rounders, but I don't see them being more than serviceable guys off the bench. Maybe Heytvelt could do some things, and I love Suton if he finds the right team.

Centers:
1. Hasheem Thabeet
2. B.J. Mullens
3. Alade Aminu
4. Slava Kravtsov
5. Garret Siler
6. Luke Nevill
7. John Bryant
8. Russell Hicks

Not much here after Thabeet and Mullens, but teams are always looking for size and you never know what who might land a spot in the NBA.

My Top 100 Prospects:
1. Ricky Rubio
2. Blake Griffin
3. Hasheem Thabeet
4. Demar DeRozan
5. James Harden
6. Jordan Hill
7. Tyreke Evans
8. Stephan Curry
9. Brandon Jennings
10. Johnny Flynn
11. Jrue Holiday
12. Jeff Teague
13. Gerald Henderson
14. James Johnson
15. Earl Clark
16. DeJuan Blair
17. Sam Young
18. Ty Lawson
19. Chase Budinger
20. Austin Daye
21. Wayne Ellington
22. Eric Maynor
23. B.J. Mullens
24. Terrence Williams
25. Tyler Hansbrough
26. Omri Casspi
27. Derrick Brown
28. Darren Collison
29. Marcus Thorton
30. DaJuan Summers
31. Victor Claver
32. Patrick Mills
33. Jermaine Taylor
34. Dionte Christmas
35. Nick Calathes
36. Jonas Jerebko
37. Toney Douglas
38. Josh Heytvelt
39. Sergio Llull
40. Taj Gibson
41. Rodrigue Beaubois
42. Danny Green
43. A.J. Price
44. Jeff Pendergraph
45. Jodie Meeks
46. Dante Cunningham
47. Jerel McNeal
48. Jeff Adrien
49. DeMarre Carroll
50. Tyrese Rice
51. Alade Aminu
52. Curtis Jerrells
53. Leo Lyons
54. Milenko Tepic
55. Emir Preldzic
56. Henk Norel
57. Nando De Colo
58. Joe Ingles
59. Ahmad Nivins
60. Christian Eyenga
61. John Brockman
62. Wesley Matthews
63. Marko Keselj
64. Paul Harris
65. Lester Hudson
66. Micah Downs
67. Slava Kravtsov
68. Lee Cummard
69. Brandon Costner
70. Vitor Faverani
71. Dar Tucker
72. Jeremy Pargo
73. Josh Akognon
74. Stefan Jackson
75. Jack McClinton
76. Dominic James
77. Robert Dozier
78. KC Rivers
79. Chris Johnson
80. Garret Siler
81. Alonzo Gee
82. Patrick Beverley
83. A.J. Abrams
84. Daniel Hackett
85. Luke Nevill
86. Kevin Rogers
87. Josh Shipp
88. Aaron Jackson
89. Goran Suton
90. Ben Woodside
91. Luigi Datome
92. Robert Vaden
93. John Bryant
94. Alex Ruoff
95. Tony Gaffney
96. Courtney Fells
97. Antonio Anderson
98. Milos Teodosic
99. Chinemelu Elonu
100. Eric Devendorf
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Old 06-19-2009, 02:17 PM   #2
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

Just skimmed it but something that stood out is Nivins is definitely not a combo anything. He's the definition of a power forward.
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Old 06-19-2009, 03:03 PM   #3
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

i thought james harden is better than demar derozan
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Old 06-19-2009, 03:32 PM   #4
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

I've only got a couple problems with this!
1. I LOVE DeRozan and and all his potential but in no way shape or form is he better than James Harden right now.
2. Chase Budinger is ranked a little high!
3. Demar Derozan is not a better prospect than Tyreke or Harden.
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Old 06-19-2009, 10:17 PM   #5
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

You're right Posterize. I have always had Nivins a CF because I always thought he could guard smaller players, but at this point he is a PF and that is what he would be in the NBA.

I should clarify. These lists are kind of a mix of my personal feelings and where I think guys will be drafted. DeRozan is in my top 4. He might not go ahead of Evans or Harden, but I think he will be a better player. And it doesn't matter how good someone is right now. Okafor was better than Howard during their draft.

I'm not that high on Budinger, but 19 is right about where everyone else probably has him. In this draft I might actually take him late in the lottery because you know what you are going to get. There really isn't much risk or reward with him, just a good athlete who plays solid, but soft.
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Old 06-19-2009, 10:34 PM   #6
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

What do you know about this De Colo kid, Indy brought him in for a workout a few days ago. Any good? Is he able to come stateside next season or is he going to be in Europe?
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Old 06-20-2009, 03:12 PM   #7
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

Austin daye should have at the very least been a combo forward- daye if his nba career works out is a power forward- he is a high post/outside shooting pf- he couldn't defend sf but he is actually a good defensive pf(even being that light)- griffen should be sf/pf too

You overrate flynn and lawson- they are not much if any better than mills, I think you should have them closer

Wish you'd have done the list without combo gaurds
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Old 06-20-2009, 05:46 PM   #8
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

Did you honestly look at Draft Express, kept the same names just reorganized them the way you like?

Nobody here or you know a damn thing about Nando De Colo, Christian Eyenga, Slava Kravtsov, Nemanja Aleksandrov, etc.

What makes it more pathetic is you ranked players out of their positions, Sam Young isnt a swingman and Paul Harris isnt a SG.

What possessed you the audacity to waste your time doing this.
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Old 06-22-2009, 01:14 PM   #9
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

Lebowski, De Colo is a really solid player. He may not be great at anything, and I'm not sure he would be more than a decent backup guard, but he would be worth a 2nd round pick to me because he is a mature player that could fill a few roles off the bench. I just don't know how he would fit in with the Pacers. I don't know their FA situation, but they have a ton of pretty good guards in Ford, Jack, Dunleavy, Rush, and Daniels.

Gringos, I have always had a hard time placing Daye in the NBA. He looks like he could add some muscle so I could see that. You are right, though, he should be a CF because he would be able to fill either role depending on what the team he lands on looks like. I addressed Griffin in my original post. With the Clippers I think they may have him at SF at first, but I think he ends up being a PF.

I don't agree at all with Mills. I have never been a fan. I see a backup like Redick that just comes in to score, while Flynn and Lawson could be starters. Guys like Flynn and Lawson can lead a team which will make them much more valuable, which is why they should go much higher.

Interminator, I follow the draft every year and keep track of most of these international guys. De Colo and Aleksandrov have been draft prospects for years. If you go back some years there was talk Aleksandrov might be a potential #1 pick (not that it means much to me, but NBAdraft.net had him up around 2 at one point so it wasn't just me). He was only like 16 at the time and never reached his potential, however. Kravtsov has been in camps and stuff for a couple years, but anyone with his size has a chance. I think he could be taken and might actually be a steal. Eyenga kind of burst onto the scene this year, so you are right, I don't know much about him, but looking at his size, physcial skills, and the reports about his game, I don't feel bad including him.

As for Young, to me his a good example of a swingman. He doesn't handle the ball well enough to be a guard, and he doesn't have the height to be a true forward. He has a decent outside shot, drives the ball, and finishes at the hole, which to me is what swingmen do. He also has the size and athletic ability to guard SG or SF, which is another key part of his potential.

Harris to me is a shooting guard, even though he can't shoot (maybe he should be called an off guard). He is a good rebounder, but so wasn't MJ. Does that make MJ not a SG? He can handle the ball well enough to be a guard in the NBA, and has the size to D up and drive on SG at 6-4. Do you suggest he plays against 6-8 SF or PF or something? If he makes the NBA it will be as a 2-guard.

And it isn't just me making these positions. I'll admit some guys are tweeners and hard to place, but for the most part I think you would find that ESPN, CBSsports, and all of the draft websites would agree for the most part.
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Old 06-22-2009, 01:26 PM   #10
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

Glad to see someone else doesn't think Patty Mills is going to be some monster steal for some team. He's a scorer and that's it, Flip Murray like. I'm amazed people think he's capable of being a starter.
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Old 06-22-2009, 04:45 PM   #11
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

I'm not saying mills is a lottery pick but I am saying lawson and flynn are rated way too high now- mills is just a shooter and scorer, well what could lawson or even flynn bring in the NBA? Leadership?, knock it off
These 6 ft and under guys can't bank on "leadership" its a game for huge people- cp3 is a once a decade or so type talent, its not the norm- of the little pgs jennings is head and shoulders better than the rest
I can see the chance of flynn being effective because I think he can be effective as a shooter and is able to finish- still not lottery worthy at all- lawson on the other hand will not be an effective nba player
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Old 06-23-2009, 01:29 PM   #12
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

Gringos I actually agree with you, but remember that speed kills. Lawson and Flynn could get into the lane like Parker. They are true PG that can lead teams as well, in time. I have always said you need to wait 3 or 4 years before a PG reaches their potential in the NBA. They may put up good numbers right away, but you need to wait until they are true floor generals.

I also said they could be starters. Not that they will. I see them as boarderline starters. If they come off the bench I think they are among the top 10 backup PG in the NBA. As starters I don't think they are All-Star level, but not far behind Mike Bibby who has been a playoff PG for most of his career. I don't think they would be far off from Jameer Nelson who is also a little guy and did make an All-Star team. Mills actually kind of reminds me a little of Nelson, but I just can't see him being that good for some reason.

As for draft position, in a normal draft I think Lawson and Flynn are going in the last 10 or 12 picks in the 1st round. In this weaker draft, they are going up near the lottery.

I also agree that Jennings is going to be better. He really got a bad rep going to Europe, but he is a true PG, not a scoring PG, although he can score, and if you caught some of those videos of him over in Europe, he is actually a pretty smart and mature guy off the court.

If you are talking my personal top 5:
1. Rubio
2. Griffin
3. Thabeet
4. DeRozan
5. Evans/Jennings

To me those are the only 6 guys in the draft that I think have the potential to be All-Stars.

Since I have a minute, I will break this down even further by looking at what I think they will get for stats over the course of their whole careers including what I think will be slow starts for all of them except Griffin.

Rubio-16ppg, 9apg, 2spg, 45%, 33%3
Griffin-20ppg, 11rpg, 52%
Thabeet-12ppg, 11rpg, 3bpg, 54%
DeRozan-19ppg, 4rpg, 46%, 30%3
Evans-17ppg, 4rpg, 4apg, 45%, 32%3
Jennings-15ppg, 7apg, 2spg, 44%, 32%3

Flynn-11ppg, 4apg, 46%, 34%3
Lawson-9ppg, 5apg, 46%, 38%3
Mills-6ppg, 2apg, 43%, 38%3

Last edited by monthh : 06-23-2009 at 01:42 PM.
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Old 06-24-2009, 05:59 PM   #13
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

Pg's
1-ricky rubio
2-jennings
3-jholiday
4-curry
5-teague

Sg's
1-harden
2-tyreke evans
3-derozen
4-danny green
5-williams

Sf's
1-griffen
2-earl clark
3-j johnson
4-d summers
5-casspi

Pf's
1-daye
2-handsbrough
3-blair
4-heytvelt
5-hill

C's
1-thabeet
2-mullins

Overall
1-griffen
2-rubio
3-jennings
4-thabeet
5-harden
6-holiday
7-curry
8-tyreke
9-earlclark
10-derozen
11-teague
12-daye
13-j johnson
14-mullins
15-d summers
16-handsbrough
17-danny green
18-e maynor
19-t williams

Hardest to place the guys who won't be ready to play but have star/impact potential like derozen, mullins, daye, and maybe rubio- I hope there are a handful of foreigners in this 1st rd or else the end will be ugly
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Old 06-24-2009, 10:23 PM   #14
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

el gringos - what the hell, Griffen is a PF, not a SF.

Is it just me, or does anyone else think Blake Griffen might be a little overrated.
He's one of the top prospects in this draft for sure, but from the few games I saw, a lot of his game is based on out-muscling his skinny opponents in college, which sure as hell won't happen in the NBA. Plus he's not even that tall.
People also talk about how he didn't get to show his defense cause Oklahoma couldn't risk fouls, but likewise, how do we know it WON'T be good using the same logic.
A lot of people seem to be hyping him up as the next great PF or something.
I see maybe a few All-Star appearances at best, but I don't think he'll ever be a 20/10 guy, maybe 18+/8 at best in my opinion.
Plus, "Hack-a-Blake" anyone?
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Old 06-24-2009, 10:54 PM   #15
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Default Re: My Complete Draft Breakdown

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snoop_Cat
el gringos - what the hell, Griffen is a PF, not a SF.

Is it just me, or does anyone else think Blake Griffen might be a little overrated.
He's one of the top prospects in this draft for sure
, but from the few games I saw, a lot of his game is based on out-muscling his skinny opponents in college, which sure as hell won't happen in the NBA. Plus he's not even that tall.
People also talk about how he didn't get to show his defense cause Oklahoma couldn't risk fouls, but likewise, how do we know it WON'T be good using the same logic.
A lot of people seem to be hyping him up as the next great PF or something.
I see maybe a few All-Star appearances at best, but I don't think he'll ever be a 20/10 guy, maybe 18+/8 at best in my opinion.
Plus, "Hack-a-Blake" anyone?


it must be just you! blakes a monster he is a clear cut special player all-star lock and roy lock! he'll outmuscle outjump outquick or outshoot 90% of any power forward in the nba! he will be better than beasley! mark my words!

also i gotta laugh at the derozan over harden ranking... give me one second!



harden will be the second best rookie in this draft class!

derozan has bust written all over!

brandon jennings will eventually be a better player than rubio

and stephen curry will lean to play the point and will turn out to be the 3rd best pg in this draft.

if tyler hansbrough slips past pick #15 that will be the biggest steal!

also alot of people are talking about this being the weakest draft ever?



thats all im gonna say about that!
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