Originally Posted by beasted86
Well I just think it's pretty ridiculous to base someones career off of what they could only do for 2.5 months, and disregard what they did the previous 2.5 seasons.
Yes, Bargnani has potential... but the homers adamately arguing that Bargnani is "already" worth $10M by looking at the complete body of work in his career so far is just lame.
There's a reason there is a general consensus in this thread that $8M or lower would have been a more reasonable figure.
Somewhat, Bargnani is not guaranteed, but from what I've always seen he had a totally decent rookie year and then got buried by a coach who was trying to win right now to keep his job and chose that over giving him the time to develop in games. Once they fired Mitchell he picked up 'right' where he left off after his rookie year and played even better.
I don't think anyone is arguing that based on his body of work 'now' he's worth 10 million. 7 or 8, sure. What is reasonable though is anticipating that next season he's going to be featured in the offense, get way more minutes, and have a breakout season. A player breaking out in their 3'rd or 4'th season is pretty typical honestly.
So you have to consider that they gave him an extension. If he continues his season finish and say, goes for 20/7/1.5 bpg with maybe 2-3 dimes (thats a low for everything but points) and shoots 42% (pretty low too IMHO) Bargnani is going to be worth 'much' more then 10 million. He'll be 24 and look like he's finally adjusted to the NBA game like Dirk did after a couple years in Dallas.
Based on that potential his contract would easily be more then 10 million/year. Easily. Realizing that potential, or if even next season he goes off for a serious improvement with 20/10/2, at age 24 resigning him starts to approach max money deals. Could he be a contract year retiree? Yep, its possible, but to be fair its a what if that he gives up after getting paid as much as he continues to improve.
If he makes another leap after signing this contract TO will look positively brilliant and get great value on him. If he doesn't become that high paid type player after 3 years, 10 million a year is not so difficult to move to a team looking to dump salary. They can buy him out for 15 million and clear cap space. Even at 10 million and if Bargnani becomes just a good shooter like Okur, its overpaying, but 10 million to a team looking for a little extra size/shooting as a piece to their playoff run is not unforseeable at all. The Raps just traded Jermaine O'Neal's corpse and max deal to Miami for Marion and his expiring contract. There's no reason an only competent Bargnani would not be able to be moved for 10 million.
Lastly, you've got to consider one other factor. Say Bargnani in 5 years is worth lots more. And he can play anywhere and is making a decision. Like Bosh is making next summer. It 'will' count in Bargnani's decesion when they say "yea, you can go to Indiana, but don't forget that this organization took you first in the draft, fired the coach when people doubted you and then overpaid you in a 5 year extension after only a few months of improved numbers. You can sign where you want, its your decision, but you already live here and we are loyal to you." Stuff like that counts for loads. Its why Dallas lost Nash. Why the Clips lost Brand. Why the Suns might actually keep Nash. And why Lebron might not go to NY. Why Wade only wants a team in contention.
Heh, being a GM is a tricky job. There are so many facets. I just find it all interesting.