I don't understand these odds. How can a 4-2 Packer team that is 1-2 against quality teams (Bengals, Vikes, Bears), be favorites against the 6-1 Vikes that is 2-1 against quality teams (49ers, Ravens, Steelers)
They've beaten the same bad teams (Rams, Browns, Lions), and the Vikings have beaten the Packers this season.
I know its in Green Bay, but does homefield really make that much difference??? Just doesn't make sense to me.
The Oddsmakers consulted with the football Gods and came to the conclusion that it is impossible for Farve to win in Lambeau Field when wearing a Vikings Jersey.
Okay, so since the Packers are a 3-point favorite, does that really mean that oddsmakers see the Pack and Vikes as equals at this point in the season?? Even if the Vikings beat them earlier in the season?
I'm not trying to rebut what you're saying, I'm just trying to understand.
I know it seems that way, but odds are made to induce betting. It's not really "we think Team X should beat Team Z by this many points." The goal to attract equal betting on both sides, this way, no matter what, the betting place makes money.
Okay, so since the Packers are a 3-point favorite, does that really mean that oddsmakers see the Pack and Vikes as equals at this point in the season?? Even if the Vikings beat them earlier in the season?
I'm not trying to rebut what you're saying, I'm just trying to understand.
the odds are determined by the gamblers themselves...and will change over the week...(not by much usually)
the casinoes try to get an even 50/50 of the money on each side of the bet, and then charge the winner "juice"...which is like 5%-15% of the winnings usually...
so basically, the point spread reflects what the entire gambling world thinks...
I know it seems that way, but odds are made to induce betting. It's not really "we think Team X should beat Team Z by this many points." The goal to attract equal betting on both sides, this way, no matter what, the betting place makes money.
See, now this makes a lot of sense.
Much more than "Yes... homefield advantage is very important"
the odds are determined by the gamblers themselves...and will change over the week...(not by much usually)
the casinoes try to get an even 50/50 of the money on each side of the bet, and then charge the winner "juice"...which is like 5%-15% of the winnings usually...
so basically, the point spread reflects what the entire gambling world thinks...
The theory of getting balanced action and pocketing the vig (juice) is always the goal of the Oddsmakers; but, in the real world this rarely happens. On a typical 15 game NFL weekend, the major sports books will be in balance on 8 to 9 games with a 5% risk free return. One or two games may have major imbalance, which will cause the game to go off the board early in the week and reopen on game day as a circled game (limit on the wager amount) to reduce their risk. On the remaining 4 to 5 games they will be at risk $50,000 to $100,000 on each match up. On these 4 or 5 at risk games is where you will find Rising Star's recommended plays. This is also where Las Vegas turns the weekend into a Fantastic week for the sports book. To the sports book they could care less who wins the balanced games as they will take 5% of the total amount wagered no matter which team wins against the spread (ATS).
On the circled games they don't win much and they don't lose much as they have limited the amount wagered. If they win all of the 4 or 5 at risk games, their return is in excess of 9% of the total handle for the weekend. Over the past eighteen years Las Vegas and Rising Star have won between 60% and 66% of these at risk games and that is why both of us are still in business.
Look at their success rate in the link. (at the bottom)
11/1 1:00 ET At Baltimore -3.5 Denver
11/1 1:00 ET At Chicago -13.5 Cleveland 11/1 1:00 ET Houston -3.5 At Buffalo Houston to cover 11/1 4:15 ET At Green Bay -3 Minnesota Vikings will win
11/1 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -12.5 San Francisco
11/1 1:00 ET At NY Jets -3 Miami
11/1 1:00 ET At Detroit -4 St. Louis
11/1 1:00 ET At Dallas -9.5 Seattle
11/1 4:05 ET At San Diego -16.5 Oakland 11/1 4:05 ET At Tennessee -3 Jacksonville How are the Titans favored in anything? Go with the Jags.
11/1 4:15 ET At Arizona -9.5 Carolina
11/1 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -2 NY Giants
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Re: Week 8 NFL point spreads...
