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Old 08-18-2010, 05:53 AM   #1
RedBlackAttack
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Default Rate My Big Money Team

I know that the 'Rate My Team' threads are generally lame, but this is a semi-important one, at least monetarily. The winner of our league gets $1,000. This is one of two big money leagues that I am in. The other one will have its draft on Aug. 28.

Anyway, a brief summary of the rules in this league... It is a PPR league. There are roster restrictions that go like this:

2QBs, 5RBs, 5WRs, 3TEs, 2K, 2DEF, 2ST

As you can see, there are separate categories for defense and special teams. The special teams category isn't normally the difference-maker in the outcome of the league, so you can pretty much dismiss them.

The league mandates that you start a QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, a flex (WR, TE, or RB), a kicker, defense, and special team.

Oh... And QB TDs get the full six points (some leagues do 4 points for passing TD) and there are also bonuses for big plays either running, throwing, or receiving.

I had first pick in the draft. This is a 12-team league.

Here is my squad...

QB: Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Jerome Harrison, Arian Foster, Darren McFadden
WR: Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Mohamed Massaquoi
TE: Antonio Gates, Ben Watson, Aaron Hernandez
K: Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Succop
DEF: Colts, Dolphins
ST: Broncos, Colts

My starters are projected like this:

QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles
WR: Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks
TE: Antonio Gates
Flex: Jerome Harrison
K: Gostowski
DEF: Dolphins
ST: Broncos

When Ben returns things may change with the QB spot... I think he may have a big year. Word is he has lost a ton of weight and is very focused on proving the doubters wrong.

Thoughts?

Last edited by RedBlackAttack : 08-19-2010 at 12:37 AM.
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Old 08-18-2010, 05:59 AM   #2
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Why do people like Hakeem Nicks better than Mario Manningham?
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Old 08-18-2010, 06:11 AM   #3
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riddler
Why do people like Hakeem Nicks better than Mario Manningham?
Bigger upside and could be poised to have a breakout year in 2010. Plus, he was the highest ranked guy on my board when I took him and it was relatively late in the draft. He slipped, for whatever reason.

A lot of teams in other leagues are using Nicks as a No. 2 receiver. He is my No. 3 and, depending on Mike Wallace (who I think will have a big year in Pittsburgh), could slip to the four spot.

I even think MM may have gone before Nicks in this league.

But, Nicks was drafted to be the Giants' No. 1 receiver. He showed some great signs last year that he could develop into that and this could be the year that he really shows himself.

He fell into my lap more than me actually targeting him.
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Old 08-18-2010, 06:18 AM   #4
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

My selections went in this order in the overall draft:

1. Chris Johnson
24. Reggie Wayne (how did that happen?)
25. Greg Jennings
48. Antonio Gates
49. Jamaal Charles
72. Hakeem Nicks
73. Jerome Harrison
96. Matt Ryan
97. Mike Wallace
120. Ben Roethlisberger
121. Darren McFadden
144. Mohamed Massaquoi
145. Arian Foster
168. Aaron Hernandez

Last edited by RedBlackAttack : 08-19-2010 at 04:04 AM.
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Old 08-18-2010, 07:58 AM   #5
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

RBA... will you join my league?

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=186749
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Old 08-18-2010, 11:00 AM   #6
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

You have great Receivers and great RB, but I feel like you should have targeted a quarterback earlier since touchdowns for QBs in your league are worth 6. Matt Ryan is solid, and I have him in one of my leagues, but in that kind of league it would have been really beneficial to go after one of the top quarterbacks. Ben was a good choice though, and if he comes back strong, it should alleviate this problem, but who knows what will happen with him.
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Old 08-18-2010, 11:33 AM   #7
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

I like the team a lot. I can't believe you got Charles so late. The qb situation is a bit murky but I actually think Matt Ryan could have a really nice year and Ben will play well when he gets back.
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Old 08-18-2010, 05:55 PM   #8
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riddler
I'm already in one ISH league (-pt- league). I would join your league, but I don't want to stretch myself too thin. I'm in two big money leagues, an ISH league, and a work league.

I've hit my quota for this year.

Thanks for the offer, though.

Jailblazers & IF,
My strategy on QBs was really based upon my spot in the draft. After taking Chris Johnson, by the time it got back to me again, Rogers, Manning, Brees, Romo, Rivers, and Brady were all off the board. You have to remember that there were 23 picks in between my first and second selections, which is one of the reasons that I normally don't like a high pick.

I could have taken a QB higher, but it would have been someone like Carson Palmer or Jay Cutler... I felt I was better off just sticking it out, because is there really a big difference between Cutler and Ryan? In fact, I like Ryan better.

I think Ryan could be poised for a big year in his third season and, like I said, I think Ben could eventually become my starter just going by reports that I'm hearing about his off-season work and weight... Plus, the Steelers' line is much improved with Pouncey.

To me, finding quality QBs that could possibly explode relatively late in the draft is much easier than finding impact WRs or RBs late. Then, throw in Gates...

I'm pretty happy. Thanks for the reviews, guys.

Last edited by RedBlackAttack : 08-18-2010 at 06:03 PM.
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Old 08-19-2010, 01:59 AM   #9
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

thats a killer squad RBA, really impressive on paper.
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Old 08-19-2010, 02:16 AM   #10
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stinky Dog
thats a killer squad RBA, really impressive on paper.
Nice. That is good to hear coming from you. You know your FF sh!t.

The thing that I like about this particular team is that, a lot of times in the past, I have been reliant on one really great player and if he had an off year or suffered an injury (knock on wood it doesn't happen), my season was basically over unless I got really lucky on the waiver wire.

However, this team has three guys that could conceivably be the top FF players in the entire league this year (CJ, Wayne, Jennings). That gives me some leeway if a bit of bad luck comes along.
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Old 08-19-2010, 02:33 AM   #11
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Quote:
Originally Posted by RedBlackAttack
Nice. That is good to hear coming from you. You know your FF sh!t.

The thing that I like about this particular team is that, a lot of times in the past, I have been reliant on one really great player and if he had an off year or suffered an injury (knock on wood it doesn't happen), my season was basically over unless I got really lucky on the waiver wire.

However, this team has three guys that could conceivably be the top FF players in the entire league this year (CJ, Wayne, Jennings). That gives me some leeway if a bit of bad luck comes along.
I think there was tremendous value at pretty much every pick. That is how you determine if someone had a good draft. A lot of people fall in love with guys and select them way above their ADP (average draft position). There is nothing wrong with targeting specific players but reaching for them is a no no.

Another thing I try to emphasize is talent vs opportunity. Take two players with similar ADPs (say Matt Forte and Jonathan Stewart). Although J-Stew is the more talented and explosive player there is another dynamic player in Denagelo Williams that he shares carries with. If he was the guy on his team, he'd obviously be a clear cut pick but the fact that Forte will get more carries, more targets, more goal line tries, more opportunities solidifies him as a better value pick.

Every year there are a couple of guys who fall through the cracks and get drafted very late and end up being amongst the top of their respective positions. Ray Rice and Cedric Benson are two prime examples of this. Sidney Rice and Miles Austin as well. That is where the research comes into play. I think there is a very strong likelihood that by the end of the year Mike Wallace will fall into that category. Of course there are guys that come out of nowhere but guys like Rice(s), Benson, Austin had the talented and just needed the opportunity to shine.

PPR leagues really balance the power between RB's and WR's. Drafting RB first by default and taking the two best available WR's at 24 and 25 is exactly what I would have done. My only qualm with your draft is I would have selected a tight end later in the draft although Gates certainly isn't a bad pick by any means. It's just a very deep position and there are tons of guys who are flying under the radar who are primed for big seasons and can be had a lot later (Dustin Keller, Zach Miller, etc). I would never draft more than one tight end either even though you appear to be stocked at other positions. I understand your league has certain restrictions in place but you shouldn't have to carry 3 of them unless you can flex one but even in that scenario you have much better options.

As far as Manningham and Nicks are concerned. It's not even a competition between them. Nicks is the superior player by a very large margin and is the starting flanker on the Giants. He will have a very good season barring injury. He's tall, athletic, and very explosive. Reminds me a lot of Plaxico Burress in his Pittsburgh days.

All in all my team would look nearly identical if I selected first overall and those players were available. I can't imagine a better team on paper in a 12 team league.
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Old 08-19-2010, 04:08 AM   #12
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Great post and completely on the money. My goal going into the draft was to attempt to take five No. 1 backs and five No. 1 receivers. In past years, I had wasted (and I emphasize wasted) semi-early choices on guys like Felix Jones who, as you explained with the Stewart comparison, is incredibly explosive and talented, but he is on a stacked team and behind a solid starter.

All of my RBs are going to be THE guys in the backfield heading into Week 1. The only one that is in a real battle is Jamaal Charles, being that Thomas Jones is getting some of the first team reps. But, I have a really hard time believing Charles won't be the primary runner with Jones coming in for spells and maybe on third downs (although Charles is a nice receiving option out of the backfield).

I'm hearing great things about Arian Foster and, supposedly, he has completely supplanted Slaton as THE guy in Houston now that Tate is out for the year. He was a steal for me at 145.

The same thing goes for my receivers. I could have snagged guys like Garcon, who is a bigger name than say... Mike Wallace. But, outside of Wayne and Dallas Clark, you never know who the guy is going to be to step up in a game for the Colts.

With Hines Ward declining and Santonio gone, Wallace will be THE guy.

As for the three tight ends, it was a prerequisite. I had no choice but to take three... And, yes... I can use them in the flex. I am also of the opinion that Aaron Hernandez could be playing a large role in the Pats' offense by the end of the season. With Watson gone, they need a reliable receiving TE and Aaron was an absolute beast at Florida.

I can post the rosters of the other teams in the league if you are interested.
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Old 08-19-2010, 04:23 AM   #13
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

I am still convinced that FF is similiar to poker in that knowing stuff gives you an edge but in the end luck > skill

I won a $50 12 man work league a couple years back that I didn't manage or even draft...I paid, missed the draft due to a hangover, got auto-drafted by my coworkers...then I didn't manage the team at all the whole year...and the only reason I knew I won is because someoene e-mailed me to tell me...

It really put a bad taste in everyone's mouth about FF in general that someone can win in a league without even playing...(I won $250, lol)

how can you rank a team before week 1?...you can't

how can "research" let you know where the next Miles and Sidney are Marlo?...it can't...so much luck is involved...Roy broke his ribs...Miles stepped up...impossible to predict...Favre had the best year of his career...impossible to predict...most of this IS LUCK...

any of the top 10 could bust...and some of them ALWAYS do...
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Old 08-19-2010, 04:35 AM   #14
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Quote:
Originally Posted by -playmaker-
I am still convinced that FF is similiar to poker in that knowing stuff gives you an edge but in the end luck > skill

I won a $50 12 man work league a couple years back that I didn't manage or even draft...I paid, missed the draft due to a hangover, got auto-drafted by my coworkers...then I didn't manage the team at all the whole year...and the only reason I knew I won is because someoene e-mailed me to tell me...

It really put a bad taste in everyone's mouth about FF in general that someone can win in a league without even playing...(I won $250, lol)

how can you rank a team before week 1?...you can't

how can "research" let you know where the next Miles and Sidney are Marlo?...it can't...so much luck is involved...Roy broke his ribs...Miles stepped up...impossible to predict...Favre had the best year of his career...impossible to predict...most of this IS LUCK...

any of the top 10 could bust...and some of them ALWAYS do...
Reseach, Knowledge, Skill >>>>>> Luck

I stand by that. I'm not saying that luck never plays a role... It certainly does. Wayne, CJ, Jennings, Gates and Charles could all get injured tomorrow and I would be done.

However, I've been playing FF for too long and I've seen what happens to the guys that don't know what they are doing in the draft, on waivers, or in trades. Luck can help, but if you don't know how to manage your team, you have NO chance in an ultra-competitive league like this. In a league that you get in at work that people only half pay attention to? Maybe... Not one like this.

The fact that you won a league without drafting your team or managing it says more about the guys that you were playing with than any definitive statement about 'luck.'

If you played in these big money leagues that I'm in and you didn't draft your team, didn't manage your team, weren't active on the waiver wire, and made no good trades, you would be in last place and I am absolutely certain of that.

As an example of how research is key before a draft... Someone in this league actually took Slaton a couple of rounds before I took Foster. It had already been decided by then that Foster was going to be the starter and Slaton was the third down back. He didn't know... I did.

He will likely end up having to drop Slaton for someone more consistent and productive while I have a shot to hit a home run with a guy that not many people had heard of coming into this training camp.
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Old 08-19-2010, 04:42 AM   #15
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

you have never heard the saying "luck beats skill"?

it is used in poker all the time...

someone that knows what they are doing in poker will profit over the long haul...like 200 games...

but 1 game?...alot of luck...maybe the "skilled" vet has a 3-5% advantage or something...it is always some lucky no one that wins the WSOP main event...


same with FF I think...knowing stuff will give you an edge, and if yo uplayed 200 games you would have the highest win %...but 1 FF game?...most likely the lucky draft will win...that is just how it is...
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