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Old 08-19-2010, 03:45 AM   #16
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

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Originally Posted by RedBlackAttack
However, I've been playing FF for too long and I've seen what happens to the guys that don't know what they are doing in the draft, on waivers, or in trades. Luck can help, but if you don't know how to manage your team, you have NO chance in an ultra-competitive league like this. In a league that you get in at work that people only half pay attention to? Maybe... Not one like this.
swear to god all of them were active but me btw...and pissed off

I had to take a leave of absense for a while...and did not manage my team or keep up with it at all...I didn't even draft...I just paid my $50 and forgot about it...

and I won the SB...
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Old 08-19-2010, 03:52 AM   #17
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Luck Vs Skill in Backgammon

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Backgammon is a game of skill, and the more skill you have, the more likely you are to win. That is proven time and time again in tournaments and match results. But it is proven ONLY IN THE LONG RUN.

In the short run, just about anyone can beat anyone given enough luck, and when you have dice, you have luck. I have seen rank beginners beat experts in single games. I have even seen it in 3 and 5 point matches. But the odds of a rank beginner beating an expert in an 11 point match are well under 10 to 1. But as we all know, even at 10 to 1, every ten times the beginner can get lucky and win.

^^^ I think FF is exactly like that...as well as poker...

skill will show you results in the long run...but not just 1 game...there is too much luck involved....stuff that the coaches and players themsleves could never predict...
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Old 08-19-2010, 03:53 AM   #18
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

the entire reason you have CJ is "luck"...


okay I am done now...
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Old 08-19-2010, 04:02 AM   #19
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team



This isn't backgammon or cards. I'm not sure why you are making those comparisons. If FF was mostly about luck, then a person with no background knowledge could pick any player on any team's 53-man roster and have as good a chance as someone who knows what they are doing.

Hell... You have to know something just to pick CJ No. 1. That is hardly 'blind luck' like what exists in backgammon or cards.

And, I didn't WANT the No. 1 pick. Personally, I think it is the worst spot in the draft.
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Old 08-19-2010, 10:09 AM   #20
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Fantasy football is a mostly research driven hobby. Obviously luck plays a role but luck didn't guide me to three fantasy football championships last year including two money league victories (both very competitive leagues).

For example I forget the name of the group but they publish their top 10 prospects going into every season something of a deep sleeper list if you will. Miles Austin was number one on that list going into last season. He went undrafted in most leagues but the guys who did the research and took a late round flier on him got seriously rewarded and if their first 5 rounds of drafting were adequate most likely they won their league or competed for a championship.

You have a good idea of how much the guys you take in the top 5-7 rounds are going to produce. Some don't always live up to expectations but barring injuries they're going to give you something considering they are usually a stalwart on their teams. Finding a late round gem that produces as a late round gem is what will win your league. Drafting kickers, defenses, back up tight ends in the later rounds is wasteful, I've done this in the past and it's probably one of the most common mistakes in fantasy football.

Take a guy like Sidney Rice going into last year. Obviously very few people prior to the season predicted he'd put up 1,300 yards and over 80 catches but here is where the research comes into play. For starters he was a third year player and the third year is when most receivers break out if they haven't played well to date. There was no clear cut #1 WR on the Vikings so the opportunity for someone to emerge was there. Having watch Sidney at South Carolina and in limited NFL snaps it was clear as day that the guy is immensely talented and if he could put it together (mainly staying healthy and consistent QB play) he'd put up great numbers. See where the research comes into play PT? Instead of drafting a backup defense in the 15th round it's way, way smarter to draft a positional player (RB, or WR). I stopped drafting kickers and defenses and I load up on positional players and prior to the start of week 1 after preseason ends I'll make some moves depending on how things play out in the preason.

Long story short it pays to do your homework. You're not going to be right every time but if you get it right sometimes which you inevitably will you're going to do well. Luck will always be a factor especially in a single elimination tournament but that is why you disperse the money accordingly. For example you give % to the team that finishes with the best record or most points scored. Over a large sample size having an edge will show up and all of the guys who have won the competitive leagues aren't lucky. Yes they had some luck along the way but they were the most steady, consistent performers and simply prepared better than everyone else and made the proper adjustments during the season.
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Old 08-19-2010, 12:52 PM   #21
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

That's a really solid team. Ryan can break through and who knows how well Roethlisberger will play when he returns. Your RBs are stacked. I personally think that Charles is gonna have a huge year (I have him as well). Johnson is Johsnon and Harrison showed a lot of promise. Greg Jennings is really good. I think that Wayne is declining but still has a lot left. Wallace is one guy I'm high on that can be #1 WR for Steelers by the end of the year. Gates can score touchdowns at will and has a great QB throwing to him. Your D is kinda week. THe Colts play well sometimes but are inconsistent. I'm not exactly sure about the Dolphins. Broncos have Eddie Royal so that can help for ST. And both of your kickers are awesome. Good luck!
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Old 08-19-2010, 01:46 PM   #22
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Quote:
Originally Posted by RedBlackAttack


This isn't backgammon or cards. I'm not sure why you are making those comparisons. If FF was mostly about luck, then a person with no background knowledge could pick any player on any team's 53-man roster and have as good a chance as someone who knows what they are doing.

Hell... You have to know something just to pick CJ No. 1. That is hardly 'blind luck' like what exists in backgammon or cards.

And, I didn't WANT the No. 1 pick. Personally, I think it is the worst spot in the draft.
because luck wise I think it is JUST like cards or backgammon (many pro poker players are backgammon players btw)

if there was no luck in FF then the best player would win EVERY YEAR...the ONLY way to tell who is truely the best FF player would be over the long haul (like cards or backgammon)...not 1 tourny...anyone could win 1 tourny...(even someone that doesn't exist)

I PROMISE you that if you put me on "AUTO-DRAFT" in your big money league I would win a few games without touching anything...

last year I could have AUTO-drafted CJ, MIles, Ray Rice, Sidney Rice, ect...ALL LUCK...and would have destroyed everyone without managing at all...it is very possible, I know because I have done it...
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Old 08-19-2010, 01:49 PM   #23
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stinky Dog
Fantasy football is a mostly research driven hobby. Obviously luck plays a role but luck didn't guide me to three fantasy football championships last year including two money league victories (both very competitive leagues).

For example I forget the name of the group but they publish their top 10 prospects going into every season something of a deep sleeper list if you will. Miles Austin was number one on that list going into last season. He went undrafted in most leagues but the guys who did the research and took a late round flier on him got seriously rewarded and if their first 5 rounds of drafting were adequate most likely they won their league or competed for a championship.

You have a good idea of how much the guys you take in the top 5-7 rounds are going to produce. Some don't always live up to expectations but barring injuries they're going to give you something considering they are usually a stalwart on their teams. Finding a late round gem that produces as a late round gem is what will win your league. Drafting kickers, defenses, back up tight ends in the later rounds is wasteful, I've done this in the past and it's probably one of the most common mistakes in fantasy football.

Take a guy like Sidney Rice going into last year. Obviously very few people prior to the season predicted he'd put up 1,300 yards and over 80 catches but here is where the research comes into play. For starters he was a third year player and the third year is when most receivers break out if they haven't played well to date. There was no clear cut #1 WR on the Vikings so the opportunity for someone to emerge was there. Having watch Sidney at South Carolina and in limited NFL snaps it was clear as day that the guy is immensely talented and if he could put it together (mainly staying healthy and consistent QB play) he'd put up great numbers. See where the research comes into play PT? Instead of drafting a backup defense in the 15th round it's way, way smarter to draft a positional player (RB, or WR). I stopped drafting kickers and defenses and I load up on positional players and prior to the start of week 1 after preseason ends I'll make some moves depending on how things play out in the preason.

Long story short it pays to do your homework. You're not going to be right every time but if you get it right sometimes which you inevitably will you're going to do well. Luck will always be a factor especially in a single elimination tournament but that is why you disperse the money accordingly. For example you give % to the team that finishes with the best record or most points scored. Over a large sample size having an edge will show up and all of the guys who have won the competitive leagues aren't lucky. Yes they had some luck along the way but they were the most steady, consistent performers and simply prepared better than everyone else and made the proper adjustments during the season.
be honest, do you not agree that the luck-skill ratio is similiar to poker?...In that 1 game will NOT show who the best player is, but 100 games would?

knowing your stuff does increase your odds...but it can NOT beat good luck...(just like poker)
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Old 08-19-2010, 01:51 PM   #24
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

tian was auto-drafted in the Official ISH league...he could easily make the playoffs...even without managing...it isn't like Yahoo gives you scrubs...they give you the best players that they have ranked available...

hell "auto-drafting" could be seen as the best way to draft...you are constantly taking the BPA...there is no room for human error...
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Old 08-19-2010, 02:26 PM   #25
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Not sure if this is BIG enough money for you but im in a 40 dollar 12 man league

i had 6/12 pick and my draft went like this:

QB phillip rivers
WR calvin johnson
WR greg jennings
WR percy harvin
RB Michael turner
RB felix jones
W/R tim hightower (proj starter)
TE brent celek
D cincinnatti
K robbie gould


i had arguably worst pick in the draft, i think i did fairly well. here are my backups

kenny britt
donald brown
nate burleson
chaz schilens
devin thomas
jason snelling (if MT gets injured)

RATE AWAY!
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Old 08-19-2010, 02:36 PM   #26
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Quote:
Originally Posted by -playmaker-
tian was auto-drafted in the Official ISH league...he could easily make the playoffs...even without managing...it isn't like Yahoo gives you scrubs...they give you the best players that they have ranked available...

hell "auto-drafting" could be seen as the best way to draft...you are constantly taking the BPA...there is no room for human error...
Luck plays a huge role but it is highly unlikely that you will auto draft players like the Rices, Miles, and Cedric considering their ADPs were so low and that Sidney and Miles went undrafted in the majority of 12 and under team leagues. Also autodrafting your taking the best player available so scenarios unfold where you take a QB in back to back rounds and neglect WR/RB depth until the end. If you're winning a championship with an autodrafted team you either got EXTREMELY lucky, you're playing in a really soft league, or you really know how to manage your team within the seasons (i.e. trades, waiver wire, etc).

I never said anything in regards to comparing it poker, not sure why you're asking me to be honest, I always am,

Yes I'd say the skill to luck is somewhat similar but it's still hard to compare luck in a card game to luck in fantasy football. In a sense sure you can get unlucky but over the course of the season the same way you'd look at a significant sample of hands played it will provide analysis.

PS - I've been playing a bit of live poker since I've moved back to the bay. I play at this card room in Colma, called Lucky Chances. Predominantly Pinoy and Korean players (I'm like one of 3 white guys there, LOL). They play a variation of hold em called spread limit, basically the button straddles. It just induces more action. Anyway I'm playing 2-4, sitting close to 900 bucks. I bought in under rolled to the game after my buddy dragged me there. It was honestly a miracle that I even had a stack after enduring some of the beats that had been laid on me. Just running into coolers (set over set), etc. I was really playing some of the better poker I've played in a long time. In a real zone, making great reads, I was getting good cards they just weren't holding up. Loose aggressive player opens up to 20 (standard opening raise in this game), 3 players in front of me call, I have 7-7 and I call as well. Flop comes rainbow J-7-6. The original raiser bets about the pot (around 100), the guy to his right immediately calls, it's on me and I bump it up to 400 to go. Two others fold, it's back to the original raiser, he takes a long time and calls. The guy seated next to him immediately shoves all in (he's playing a few K), I insta-call and the original raiser is committed and calls. I turn over my second nuts, set of 7's and the original raiser has KK while the guy to his right that shoved all in has 66. Oh boy, turn is 6, he makes quads. Floor gets called over because everyone things the bad beat jackpot is about to hit. River blank. Granted this is a pretty standard beat for someone who has put a decent amount of hands in but it was sick nonetheless. Makes me want to stop playing. Hard to get your money in better than that. Long story short, luck is a mother****er.
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Old 08-19-2010, 02:44 PM   #27
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Big Skinny
Not sure if this is BIG enough money for you but im in a 40 dollar 12 man league

i had 6/12 pick and my draft went like this:

QB phillip rivers
WR calvin johnson
WR greg jennings
WR percy harvin
RB Michael turner
RB felix jones
W/R tim hightower (proj starter)
TE brent celek
D cincinnatti
K robbie gould


i had arguably worst pick in the draft, i think i did fairly well. here are my backups

kenny britt
donald brown
nate burleson
chaz schilens
devin thomas
jason snelling (if MT gets injured)

RATE AWAY!
This is a good team. You picked 6th and went Turner/Calvin/Jennings? and then nabbed Rivers in the 4th? Thats a good first four rounds.

Turner is a guy who I think is going to explode this year. Not that he didn't in 08 but I could see very similar numbers combined with an additional 20-30 balls caught which could make him the #1 back in any format. He admittedly was out of shape going into 09, his weight ballooned, and subsequently dealt with nagging injuries but still managed to score 10 touchdowns. He plays in a great system and they love to pound the ball anywhere near the goal line. I really like Turner, A LOT, this year, even in PPR leagues. I've been targeting him anywhere from 4th on down.

Snelling is a good handcuff. Hightower won't see the field barring a beanie wells injury which is always a possibility but does catch some balls. Again Beanie is a guy I'm very high on and does have soft hands that the coaches intend to utilize more and more. I don't think he's a great flex option with a healthy Wells in the backfield. Donald Brown is a sneaky good pick. Felix Jones is high risk/high reward. It's always been a question of health with him, the guy is obviously dynamic with a career 6.5 ypc. You can definitely find two better options on your waiver wire right now then Schilenz and Thomas. You need help at RB - Take a flier on Kareem Huggins. He's essentially the back up in Tampa. Derrick Ward most likely will be cut and Cadillac is obviously very injury prone. Huggins will be highly involved by the end of the year and way sooner if Caddy goes down.

Anyway I'd rate your draft something like a 7.9/10. Very decent, but not perfect. Some in season tweaks and you could have a great time. Good luck.
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Old 08-19-2010, 02:49 PM   #28
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stinky Dog
Instead of drafting a backup defense in the 15th round it's way, way smarter to draft a positional player (RB, or WR). I stopped drafting kickers and defenses and I load up on positional players and prior to the start of week 1 after preseason ends I'll make some moves depending on how things play out in the preason.

Don't you play in leagues with roster restrictions, though? I used to do the same thing back in the days when I could hold as many players at RB and WR as I wanted. But, both of my big money leagues have strict roster restrictions.

I HAD to take draft 3 TEs, 2 DEFs, 2 K, and 2 S/T. Now, I waited until the very end when my limit of 2 QBs, 5 RBs, and 5 WRs were already maximized, but at that point, I was basically done with being able to draft impact players. That is when I started taking the likes of Ben Watson, Aaron Hernandez, and backup defenses.

I actually really like strict roster restrictions so that people can't load up at the skill positions. It makes the waiver wire MUCH more important and greatly increases the role of skill over luck, imo.
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Old 08-19-2010, 02:53 PM   #29
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

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Originally Posted by Stinky Dog
This is a good team. You picked 6th and went Turner/Calvin/Jennings? and then nabbed Rivers in the 4th? Thats a good first four rounds.

Turner is a guy who I think is going to explode this year. Not that he didn't in 08 but I could see very similar numbers combined with an additional 20-30 balls caught which could make him the #1 back in any format. He admittedly was out of shape going into 09, his weight ballooned, and subsequently dealt with nagging injuries but still managed to score 10 touchdowns. He plays in a great system and they love to pound the ball anywhere near the goal line. I really like Turner, A LOT, this year, even in PPR leagues. I've been targeting him anywhere from 4th on down.

Snelling is a good handcuff. Hightower won't see the field barring a beanie wells injury which is always a possibility but does catch some balls. Again Beanie is a guy I'm very high on and does have soft hands that the coaches intend to utilize more and more. I don't think he's a great flex option with a healthy Wells in the backfield. Donald Brown is a sneaky good pick. Felix Jones is high risk/high reward. It's always been a question of health with him, the guy is obviously dynamic with a career 6.5 ypc. You can definitely find two better options on your waiver wire right now then Schilenz and Thomas. You need help at RB - Take a flier on Kareem Huggins. He's essentially the back up in Tampa. Derrick Ward most likely will be cut and Cadillac is obviously very injury prone. Huggins will be highly involved by the end of the year and way sooner if Caddy goes down.

Anyway I'd rate your draft something like a 7.9/10. Very decent, but not perfect. Some in season tweaks and you could have a great time. Good luck.

thanks bro.

yeah i went turner, johnson, jennings, rivers.

this is liek the 3rd or 4th year in a row i get a mid draft selection.

hightower is the projected starter for now but i dunno who else to put as my w/r.

percy is risky, he apparently fainted at prac today so i dunno what to think

i'm praying somehow the chargers sign mcneil and vjax

i got cincinn D in like 14th round and celek in like 8th. both huge steals IMO

what do you think about tashard choice? should i get him instead of schilens. i want to hold onto dthomas cuz he is havin a good camp/preseason and could easily be the #2 by opening day

Last edited by The Big Skinny : 08-19-2010 at 02:58 PM.
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Old 08-19-2010, 02:59 PM   #30
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Default Re: Rate My Big Money Team

Quote:
Originally Posted by RedBlackAttack
Don't you play in leagues with roster restrictions, though? I used to do the same thing back in the days when I could hold as many players at RB and WR as I wanted. But, both of my big money leagues have strict roster restrictions.

I HAD to take draft 3 TEs, 2 DEFs, 2 K, and 2 S/T. Now, I waited until the very end when my limit of 2 QBs, 5 RBs, and 5 WRs were already maximized, but at that point, I was basically done with being able to draft impact players. That is when I started taking the likes of Ben Watson, Aaron Hernandez, and backup defenses.

I actually really like strict roster restrictions so that people can't load up at the skill positions. It makes the waiver wire MUCH more important and greatly increases the role of skill over luck, imo.
None of the money leagues I play in require you to draft backups for K, DEF, and TE even. I've never heard of that to be honest, you did great regardless though. I do like strict roster restrictions to a certain extent but I would never carry a back up defense, kicker, or even tight end for more than a week.

My most competitive league I play in is 12 teamer, with 3 IDPs, and it we start QB-WR-WR-WR-RB-RB-RB-WR/RB-TE-DEF-K-DL-LB-DB. This will be the fifth year and I've won it twice before including last year. Every year we make more modifications so this year they implemented an extra RB spot. I was not involved with the decision making process because they all hate on me, since I crush, but all good nonetheless.
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