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Old Yesterday, 02:58 PM   #1
UK2K
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Default Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

Quote:
Statistics site 538, which is operated by Nate Silver, adjusted its projections ahead of the debate Monday, giving the odds to Republican nominee Donald Trump.

If the election were held today, Trump leads with a 54.9 percent chance of winning the election, according to the site. The win projection stems from Trump winning the key battleground states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada. The same projection shows Clinton winning Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Virginia.

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Clinton had a 92 percent chance of winning in the first week of August, and has been in a steady decline ever since.

Trump gained the national lead in the latest Morning Consult and Bloomberg polls, and took the lead in Colorado, reducing Clinton’s chances of winning that state.


Not that I care about what Nate Silver says, I just thought it was funny that some were parroting his work on here months ago.
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Old Yesterday, 03:16 PM   #2
TommyGriffin
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

We have been on the surge lately but remember this is still before The Debate. Last time Trump said a bunch of crazy shit about how he knows more than our Generals and wants to take all the oil out of the Middle East.
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Old Yesterday, 03:26 PM   #3
Ben Simmons
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

Nate Silver is 99/100 in the past two elections I think.
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Old Yesterday, 03:31 PM   #4
DonDadda59
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

You dudes will never learn. Before Clinton had a 92% chance of winning, the Donald was up at 538 (somewhere around 55%) for a handful of days following the RNC.

Right now The Donald's "lead" is already gone.

Enjoy the show tonight.

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Old Yesterday, 03:39 PM   #5
Duderonomy
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

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Originally Posted by DonDadda59
You dudes will never learn. Before Clinton had a 92% chance of winning, the Donald was up at 538 (somewhere around 55%) for a handful of days following the RNC.

Right now The Donald's "lead" is already gone.

Enjoy the show tonight.


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Old Yesterday, 03:44 PM   #6
DonDadda59
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

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Originally Posted by Duderonomy

Last time the Clintons were in the oval office:
Yet over the next eight years, President Clinton presided over one of the most impressive economic turnarounds in modern history. By the end of his term, 22.7 million new jobs had been created, unemployment dropped to a 30-year low, and gross domestic product grew by 35 percent overall through the longest period of sustained growth in U.S. history.

What’s more, the growth was broadly shared and unemployment plummeted across the board, including those groups for whom the economy never worked very well. Average hourly wages increased by 6 percent after accounting for inflation, and median household income grew by 14 percent, the highest increase for a two-term president. The median income of African American families increased by a third and Hispanic families saw their median incomes rise by almost $7,000. Poverty rates dropped to near record lows. And of course the federal budget went from enormous deficits to enormous surpluses, with the federal government on track to becoming effectively debt free by 2009—for the first time since Andrew Jackson was president.

https://www.americanprogress.org/iss...clinton-years/
But the Donald's trickle down on steroids plan should do wonders for everyone below the 1%er threshold.
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Old Yesterday, 03:45 PM   #7
UK2K
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

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Originally Posted by DonDadda59
You dudes will never learn. Before Clinton had a 92% chance of winning, the Donald was up at 538 (somewhere around 55%) for a handful of days following the RNC.


Yep, it got to be 50.1% for about a day on July 30th, but kinda...
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Old Yesterday, 03:50 PM   #8
DonDadda59
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

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Originally Posted by UK2K
Yep, it got to be 50.1% for about a day on July 30th, but kinda...



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Old Yesterday, 03:53 PM   #9
UK2K
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

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Originally Posted by DonDadda59







http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/
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Old Yesterday, 03:57 PM   #10
DonDadda59
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today


Bruh, you just linked me to the polls-only section. Your OP was about 'who would win today' (AKA Now Cast), under that metric (as I proved to you) the Donald was at 55% following the RNC before his epic collapse.

Either way, Clinton is up by all of Silver's metrics.

Hope you enjoyed the hour or so when the Donald was up.
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Old Yesterday, 03:58 PM   #11
NumberSix
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

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Originally Posted by Ben Simmons
Nate Silver is 99/100 in the past two elections I think.
Nate Silver has predicted both outcomes multiple times.
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Old Yesterday, 05:22 PM   #12
dude77
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today



daddio on perpetual meltdown since sept 1

dems are scared and nervous ..

the panic is real ..

this is how I picture daddio and co. when they try to post 'confidently'

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Old Yesterday, 07:38 PM   #13
TheMan
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

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Originally Posted by dude77


daddio on perpetual meltdown since sept 1

dems are scared and nervous ..

the panic is real ..

this is how I picture daddio and co. when they try to post 'confidently'

Funny gif, what movie is that from?
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Old Yesterday, 07:52 PM   #14
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

BTW, Nate Silver has Shillary up 55%-45% chances of winning the election atm.

RCP currently has HC winning FL and taking 292 EVs to 246 if the election were held today.

Obviously the debates can change the dynamic for each candidate...or it could be a wash and this thing goes down the wire.
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Old Yesterday, 07:54 PM   #15
Rockets(T-mac)
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Default Re: Silver: Trump Would Win If Election Were Held Today

I hope Trump wins, America deserves this.
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