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Old 11-09-2010, 12:13 PM   #1
indiefan24
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Default 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

Hollinger's rankings are out...

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings


let the flaming commence!
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:13 PM   #2
Jr Llaban
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

Nuggets
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:13 PM   #3
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

Stopped reading at #1.
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:13 PM   #4
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

Hollinger: Where happens.
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:15 PM   #5
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

I hate the lakers but I will admit they deserve number 1 spot not the heat.
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:16 PM   #6
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

has Hollinger ever been right about anything
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:17 PM   #7
chazzy
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

Hollinger simply puts data into his formula and out come these rankings. The Heat are probably number one because they played more road games, both of their losses have been by 3pts total, and they've had bigger blowouts. Strength of schedule as well, having played Boston/Orlando/NOH.
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:18 PM   #8
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

Quote:
Originally Posted by PurpleChuck
Hollinger: Where happens.



Pretty much
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:19 PM   #9
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

i assume you guys know he lets his formulas decide for him. and even he will most likely admit they are not perfect and can't capture all the un-measurable intricacies of nba play??

it's just a very specialized way of looking at things. i know it looks stupid from the surface, but it DOES give you a glance at things from a rigid, and more importantly, different, perspective. and, at the end of the day, i'm sure hollinger is no more wrong/off than all of the analysts who just use the facts they have and information they gather to form opinions that are (relative to hollinger) more 'gut-check' opinions.

i honestly think he serves as an interesting foil to all of the other espn analysts, because i don't put too much stock in any of them, hollinger included. at the end of the day, they're just dudes with contacts who may even be more interested in drawing readers (gasp!) through controversy rather than going with their true beliefs.

Last edited by brooks_thompson : 11-09-2010 at 12:21 PM.
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:20 PM   #10
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

Quote:
Originally Posted by chazzy
Hollinger simply puts data into his formula and out come these rankings. The Heat are probably number one because they played more road games, both of their losses have been by 3pts total, and they've had bigger blowouts. Strength of schedule as well, having played Boston/Orlando/NOH.

As close as you're going to get to having a an NBA version of the BCS
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:21 PM   #11
blondie
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

Miami at #1? Wtf? Hollinger just never will get off Lebron's nuts
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:22 PM   #12
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

Quote:
Originally Posted by brooks_thompson
i assume you guys know he lets his formulas decide for him. and even he will most likely admit they are not perfect and can't capture all the un-measurable intricacies of nba play??

it's just a very specialized way of looking at things. i know it looks stupid from the surface, but it DOES give you a glance at things from a rigid, and more importantly, different, perspective. and, at the end of the day, i'm sure hollinger is no more wrong/off than all of the analysts who just use the facts they have and information they gather to form opinions that are (relative to hollinger) more 'gut-check' opinions.
You're a tool to even slightly defend this guy.
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:23 PM   #13
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

Quote:
Originally Posted by Batz
You're a tool to even slightly defend this guy.

This.
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:28 PM   #14
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

Quote:
Originally Posted by Batz
You're a tool to even slightly defend this guy.

troll or not, i'll answer seriously.

he is a statistics guy. he sees as many games as any of the other espn writers, but he only uses the statistics he can gather and measure to perform his analysis. he willingly puts those constraints on what he does, and that's why he was hired. like i said, he just gives you a different perspective. in a way, he proves that statistics aren't the sole reason teams are successful or not, which is an assertion pretty much every basketball watcher will agree with.

i would guess that he takes more pride in knowing that his statistical viewpoint isn't perfect than he does when he is right about a particular team. surely it challenges him to find a more accurate way to model the game through numbers, even if they will never be able to tell the whole story.
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Old 11-09-2010, 12:30 PM   #15
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Default Re: 2010-2011 Hollinger Power Rankings now available

Quote:
Originally Posted by chazzy
Hollinger simply puts data into his formula and out come these rankings. The Heat are probably number one because they played more road games, both of their losses have been by 3pts total, and they've had bigger blowouts. Strength of schedule as well, having played Boston/Orlando/NOH.

Quote:
By now, you might have noticed our daily version of power rankings is back up on ESPN.com's NBA page.

These rankings are based on a formula I devised, and they are updated every day, automatically.

I created these rankings to give a quick assessment of all 30 teams so far in the season, since sometimes the standings can be misleading in this department.

Here is some background to help you as you look through the rankings each day.

Scoring margin
One of my goals was to create a system that told us more about a team's quality than the standings do.

So instead of winning percentage, these rankings use points scored and points allowed, which are better indicators of a team's quality than wins and losses.

This might not sound right at first, but studies have shown scoring margin to be a better predictor of future success than a team's win-loss record. Thus, scoring margin is a more accurate sign of a team's quality.

That explains why, for instance, three seasons ago the Spurs ranked ahead of the Mavericks even though they had won nine fewer games -- San Antonio's scoring margin was superior. That ultimately proved to be prophetic, as Dallas lost in the first round of the playoffs while the Spurs won the championship.

Strength of schedule
Yes, this matters in the NBA, too. It is not as profound in the pro game as in the college game, because the 30 NBA teams are more evenly matched, but it still affects a team's results.

This comes into play mainly in the early part of the season, when there can be wide disparities in the quality of competition, but even at the end of the season, there will be differences among teams -- particularly when one conference is far better than the other.

Recent performance
Another key variable in the formula is recent performance, which I included for two reasons.

First, it stands to reason that more recent games are more valid indicators of how strong a team is currently.

Second, I wanted these rankings to follow the model of Marc Stein's "human" power rankings, on the site each Monday, in which a team's recent play is a huge factor.

To accomplish this, I weigh a team's full-season results by two-thirds and its most recent games by another one-third, so the overall ranking gives greater weight to recent games.

You're probably wondering at this point what I mean by "recent." It varies depending on where we are in the season.

For the first 40 games of the season, it means a team's past 10 games.

From that point forward, however, it means the most recent 25 percent of a team's schedule. The net result is that, after the first 40 games, a team's most recent 25 percent of its schedule will account for 40 percent of its ranking.

Home and road
The final variable here is home and road games.

In each game, a team's scoring margin is adjusted by the 3.5-point advantage we (and by "we," I mean the Vegas books, of course) expect the home team to have in a game between otherwise equal opponents.

This can have a large effect at certain points in the season for some teams, as their home and road numbers can get way out of line. This is particularly true for the two "circus/rodeo" teams -- Chicago and San Antonio -- who take at least one extended road trip every season because their arenas are being used for special events and thus end up with a big home-road disparity.

Caveats
Since this is an entirely automated ranking, you'll notice certain "human" factors missing.

It doesn't know which players are about to come back from injury or which teams have been playing without their best players for the past 10 games.

Along the same lines, it doesn't take into account injuries, trades, controversial calls or any other variables -- just the scores, please.

Nonetheless, it can be very useful because it allows us to see what the landscape looks like when we remove our usual filters.

We hope you enjoy our daily power rankings.

HOLLINGER'S FORMULA
RATING = (((SOS-0.5)/0.037)*0.67) + (((SOSL10-0.5)/0.037)*0.33) + 100 + (0.67*(MARG+(((ROAD-HOME)*3.5)/(GAMES))) + (0.33*(MARGL10+(((ROAD10-HOME10)*3.5)/(10)))))

SOS = Season win/loss percentage of team's opponents, expressed as a decimal (e.g., .500)

SOSL10 = Season win/loss percentage of team's last 10 opponents, expressed as a decimal (e.g., .500)

MARG = Team's average scoring margin

MARGL10 = Team's average scoring margin over the last 10 games

HOME = Team's home games

HOMEL10 = Team's home games over the last 10 games

ROAD = Team's road games

ROADL10 = Team's road games over the last 10 games

GAMES = Team's total games
Math wiz/=/ journalist.

Give someone else his position.
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