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Old 12-21-2010, 07:45 PM   #1
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Default Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

I was pretty much close to accepting this deal, but I just wanted some second opinions before I did anything. I am currently in #1 place in the league (pretty by very short margin too). The other guy is very desperate for guards - he currently has OJ Mayo, Billups, Mo Williams, VC, Harden.

Here's the deal: I would give up Tony Parker and Kevin Martin and in return get Dirk Nowitzki and James Harden.

Here's my current team:


I know that trade is more than fair, but would it help me in the long term? My team is pretty damn stacked as it is. Should I do it?
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Old 12-21-2010, 11:19 PM   #2
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

Your team is deep enough that I would definitely do the trade if I were in your position. You have quality players off the bench so it would create space to play one of them. You can also take a flyer off waivers that might turn out well, depending who is on it.

I also don't think Parker is going to keep up his play the entire season in terms of assists and steals, since they are both at a career high by far. Kev Martin always worries me, since he seems to get injured at least once a season.
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Old 12-22-2010, 06:19 AM   #3
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

Make that deal as fast as you can. Who are you adding from waivers?
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Old 12-22-2010, 03:04 PM   #4
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by benJAMin
Make that deal as fast as you can. Who are you adding from waivers?

I just accepted the trade. I am pretty thin at guard now (VERY deep at F/C), I just hope this imbalance doesn't hurt me in the long run than help. Nobody is touching me in scoring or rebounds or fg% or BLK ever again.

I am considering Luke Ridnour.

Not many guards left that dish out assists..
Jordan Farmar
Ty Lawson (Billups will be back soon)
TJ Ford
Jose Barea
Goran Dragic
Nate Robison until Rondo returns (doesn't put up assists tho)

After that is irrelevant.

Last edited by bladefd : 12-22-2010 at 03:09 PM.
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Old 12-22-2010, 05:45 PM   #5
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

You realize you just downgraded, right?

Dirk's shooting way better than his career high, and career average. It's definitely going to drop (already has been). Dirk's main draw over those other two are his FG%, and that's fleeting.

Kevin Martin gets nearly as many PPG as Dirk, only more 3pt balls and FTs on better %'s at both.

Parker/Martin combined stats:

PPG: 41.4
RPG: 6.2
APG: 9.5
SPG: 2.1
BPG: 0.2

FG%: .484
3pt%: .441
FT%: .863

FTM/g: 11
3ptM/g: 2.5


Dirk/Harden combined stats:

PPG: 34.4
RPG: 10.9
APG: 4.2
SPG: 1.9
BPG: 1

FG%: .462
3pt%: .405
FT%: .855

FTM/g: 9.8
3ptM/g: 2.1


Net difference after trade:

PPG: - 7.0
RPG: + 4.7
APG: - 5.3
SPG: - 0.2
BPG: + 0.8

FG%: - 2.4%
3pt%: - 3.6%
FT%: - 0.8%

FTM/g: - 1.2
3ptM/g: - 0.4


And there's also the question marks of whether Dirk will retain his far above career-high FG%, and Harden's best games were with Durant out. With Durant in, his stats are much lower.

Dirk is the best player in the deal, but Harden is much worse than the other 3 players involved. So unless you find an extra good player to replace Harden and make up for the big stat dropoff you just traded for, then that trade's not gonna look good unless one of the guys you traded away gets injured. That's about the only way the trade will look good. . .
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Old 12-22-2010, 06:47 PM   #6
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

I think you got robbed man. Dirk and Harden will give you rebounds and points which you didnt need before the trade, while you gave up Parker and Martin :/
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Old 12-22-2010, 06:58 PM   #7
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

Yeah. You downgraded in every statistical category besides rebounds and blocks. But the small amount you gained there (which I don't think you needed anyway), doesn't even come close to the huge losses you took everywhere else.

Don't feel too bad . . .but next time you need to actually look at what you're losing vs what you're gaining. Next time combine the stats rather than focus on just that Dirk is better than either guy you have. Dirk + Harden is worse than Parker + Martin.

Sorry I didn't catch this for you sooner bro.
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Old 12-23-2010, 06:36 AM   #8
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SinJackal
You realize you just downgraded, right?

Dirk's shooting way better than his career high, and career average. It's definitely going to drop (already has been). Dirk's main draw over those other two are his FG%, and that's fleeting.

Kevin Martin gets nearly as many PPG as Dirk, only more 3pt balls and FTs on better %'s at both.

Parker/Martin combined stats:

PPG: 41.4
RPG: 6.2
APG: 9.5
SPG: 2.1
BPG: 0.2

FG%: .484
3pt%: .441
FT%: .863

FTM/g: 11
3ptM/g: 2.5


Dirk/Harden combined stats:

PPG: 34.4
RPG: 10.9
APG: 4.2
SPG: 1.9
BPG: 1

FG%: .462
3pt%: .405
FT%: .855

FTM/g: 9.8
3ptM/g: 2.1


Net difference after trade:

PPG: - 7.0
RPG: + 4.7
APG: - 5.3
SPG: - 0.2
BPG: + 0.8

FG%: - 2.4%
3pt%: - 3.6%
FT%: - 0.8%

FTM/g: - 1.2
3ptM/g: - 0.4


And there's also the question marks of whether Dirk will retain his far above career-high FG%, and Harden's best games were with Durant out. With Durant in, his stats are much lower.

Dirk is the best player in the deal, but Harden is much worse than the other 3 players involved. So unless you find an extra good player to replace Harden and make up for the big stat dropoff you just traded for, then that trade's not gonna look good unless one of the guys you traded away gets injured. That's about the only way the trade will look good. . .

There's a few things you need to look at in this deal besides just the straight-up stats that each player has accumulated so far this season. What kind of league this is, H2H or Roto? I had assumed that it was H2H based on where your guys were slotted but should have asked first. How many teams are in the league? Looks like either 10 or 12 with deep benches. Lastly, what cats are you counting here?

If this is H2H, he's foolish to try and win every single cat each week, because it more than likely makes him a weaker team overall. Tanking one or two cats is always a way to ensure you'll have a viable team for the playoffs because you make the other cats that much stronger by stacking them and giving yourself a guarantee to win at least 5 and hopefully 6.

Before the deal he was weak in threes, assists and ft%. Guess what? Same thing after the trade, but in the process he strengthens the other cats even more, which is the goal of H2H: be better in more cats than your opponent. After this trade, he becomes stacked in scoring, rebounds, blocks and fg%, and his steals are very solid too. FT% is terrible, but you should have been looking to tank it from the beginning because of Dwight, and obviously assists are now hurting because the only true point you have is Deron. Threes is also weak, but that's a category that's easy to shore up more quickly than most. My initial thought is to look to move Deron for another steals specialist like Monta, which gives you 5 cats that you'll be almost untouchable in: points, boards, steals, blocks and fg%. You're actually decent in TOs because you dont have many natural PGs, so you've got a decent chance to win that as well. Shoring up threes a bit should be a goal through a good trade or waiver moves. That's not a simple solution because waivers is likely more weak because of your deep benches, but its something to work toward. All of these numbers can from basketballmonster.com, so feel free to plug his team into the site and see how this trade made his team better even from a numerical standpoint for yourself.

He also dealt away one of the most injury-prone players of the last ten years in KMart. The dude has missed more than 20 games per season in four of his six previous years. If we're going to throw into the argument that Dirk's fg% is an anomoly, then we better talk about the near guarantee that KMart is going down at some point this year. While we're at it, we should point out that Parker's steals are a total anomoly so far, and they've been dropping significantly of late already.

The last part for me was that this made his team more efficient; he dealt two average/above average players for an elite one. Although deep benches make it more difficult for this to be a great move because waivers will be more thin, he improved his team going forward (again, assuming this is H2H) and with some minor tweaking, he should be very competitive down the stretch.
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:31 AM   #9
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by benJAMin
There's a few things you need to look at in this deal besides just the straight-up stats that each player has accumulated so far this season. What kind of league this is, H2H or Roto? I had assumed that it was H2H based on where your guys were slotted but should have asked first. How many teams are in the league? Looks like either 10 or 12 with deep benches. Lastly, what cats are you counting here?

If this is H2H, he's foolish to try and win every single cat each week, because it more than likely makes him a weaker team overall. Tanking one or two cats is always a way to ensure you'll have a viable team for the playoffs because you make the other cats that much stronger by stacking them and giving yourself a guarantee to win at least 5 and hopefully 6.

Before the deal he was weak in threes, assists and ft%. Guess what? Same thing after the trade, but in the process he strengthens the other cats even more, which is the goal of H2H: be better in more cats than your opponent. After this trade, he becomes stacked in scoring, rebounds, blocks and fg%, and his steals are very solid too. FT% is terrible, but you should have been looking to tank it from the beginning because of Dwight, and obviously assists are now hurting because the only true point you have is Deron. Threes is also weak, but that's a category that's easy to shore up more quickly than most. My initial thought is to look to move Deron for another steals specialist like Monta, which gives you 5 cats that you'll be almost untouchable in: points, boards, steals, blocks and fg%. You're actually decent in TOs because you dont have many natural PGs, so you've got a decent chance to win that as well. Shoring up threes a bit should be a goal through a good trade or waiver moves. That's not a simple solution because waivers is likely more weak because of your deep benches, but its something to work toward. All of these numbers can from basketballmonster.com, so feel free to plug his team into the site and see how this trade made his team better even from a numerical standpoint for yourself.

He also dealt away one of the most injury-prone players of the last ten years in KMart. The dude has missed more than 20 games per season in four of his six previous years. If we're going to throw into the argument that Dirk's fg% is an anomoly, then we better talk about the near guarantee that KMart is going down at some point this year. While we're at it, we should point out that Parker's steals are a total anomoly so far, and they've been dropping significantly of late already.

The last part for me was that this made his team more efficient; he dealt two average/above average players for an elite one. Although deep benches make it more difficult for this to be a great move because waivers will be more thin, he improved his team going forward (again, assuming this is H2H) and with some minor tweaking, he should be very competitive down the stretch.

He weakened himself in eight categories, and strengthed two. One of those two, he barely strengthened. Meanwhile, he severely weakened himself in multiple.

Your logic would make sense if he actually strengthed himself significantly in several categories, but he didn't. Overall, he severely dropped his production, including in categories he was good but not great in (which may lead to more losses than he would've had if he didn't trade).

You cannot assume someone is going to magically get injured. Yes, he's been injured before, but he's played 100% of games thus far and been looking great. Perhaps he shouldn't have drafted Martin to take that risk, but now that he had him and he's been great, it's silly to trade him simply on the fear of him getting injured. That's the worst way to play. You avoid injury prone players in the draft, you don't avoid them if you have them already and they aren't injured, and you don't avoid them if you see them on waivers, doing well, and not injured.

Regardless of what kind of league it is or how many people are in it, he's weakened his team. All that stuff you said at first is completely irrelevant considering the stat differences between the players in the trade that I pointed out. No matter which type of league he may be in, he weakened his team. He should've held out for more than Harden as the throw in. Period. The guy who traded with him knew what he was doing.

Like I said, the only way this trade works is if someone he traded away gets injured while his guys stay healthy, or if he replaces Harden with a superior player of waivers, which is apparently doubtful since he was really happy to get Harden in a trade.

This is a case of being blinded by names, and not looking at the stats. Remove the names from the equation, and look at just the stats. This was clearly a poor trade for him.
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Old 12-23-2010, 03:45 PM   #10
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

Thanks for the response guys.

Quote:
Originally Posted by benJAMin
There's a few things you need to look at in this deal besides just the straight-up stats that each player has accumulated so far this season. What kind of league this is, H2H or Roto? I had assumed that it was H2H based on where your guys were slotted but should have asked first. How many teams are in the league? Looks like either 10 or 12 with deep benches. Lastly, what cats are you counting here?

The last part for me was that this made his team more efficient; he dealt two average/above average players for an elite one. Although deep benches make it more difficult for this to be a great move because waivers will be more thin, he improved his team going forward (again, assuming this is H2H) and with some minor tweaking, he should be very competitive down the stretch.

1) It is H2H
2) 10 teams in the league
3) FG%, FTM, FT%, 3PTM, PTS, REB, AST, ST, BLK, TO

Here's the basketball monster stats for the actual trade:


Original team analyzed:


New team analyzed:


Pay attention to the values part since that takes into account team size, number of teams in league, type of play and the positions being taken into account. +2 or more is very good, 0 is average, -2 or less is very bad.

As for free-agents, you're right. I have not many choices. Any of these guards worth picking up to help out assists stats a bit? If you do recommend picking up one of these, who should I drop for them?:
Luke Ridnour
Jordan Farmar
Ty Lawson (Billups will be back soon)
TJ Ford
Jose Barea
Goran Dragic
Nate Robison until Rondo returns (doesn't put up assists tho)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SinJackal
Regardless of what kind of league it is or how many people are in it, he's weakened his team. All that stuff you said at first is completely irrelevant considering the stat differences between the players in the trade that I pointed out. No matter which type of league he may be in, he weakened his team. He should've held out for more than Harden as the throw in. Period. The guy who traded with him knew what he was doing.

Like I said, the only way this trade works is if someone he traded away gets injured while his guys stay healthy, or if he replaces Harden with a superior player of waivers, which is apparently doubtful since he was really happy to get Harden in a trade.

Well, I have my fingers crossed. I don't think Tony Parker and Kevin Martin will keep up their career stats for long. They are both having arguably their career-best seasons. If healthy, Kevin Martin has a big chance of holding those career stats with his team but Tony Parker has a pretty stacked team behind him (and George Hill fighting for playing-time behind him). Parker will have a tough time holding his stats. Dirk, as the #1 option, will get whatever shots he wants. His team is built around him; same can't be said for TP or Kevin Martin. That is what I kind of took into consideration when I made the decision.

Unfortunately, the mistake I made was trying to fix something that is not broken. I have always been a firm believer of "Don't fix something that is not broken." I was just killing opponents before this trade, I am trying to do something that I did NOT need to do at ALL. The other guy is desperate because his guards consist of Mo Williams, Ben Gordon, Chauncey Billups, Vince Carter, OJ Mayo (almost all of them underperforming or somewhat injured). I just helped him (without it helping me enough in the process) while fixing something that was not broken. Two things that I am usually firmly against.. I have never traded before in fantasy football or basketball; I am almost always beating up others in regular season in leagues that I actually care about (then blow it in fantasy playoffs usually).

Last edited by bladefd : 12-23-2010 at 03:48 PM.
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Old 12-23-2010, 08:05 PM   #11
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SinJackal
Yeah. You downgraded in every statistical category besides rebounds and blocks. But the small amount you gained there (which I don't think you needed anyway), doesn't even come close to the huge losses you took everywhere else.

Don't feel too bad . . .but next time you need to actually look at what you're losing vs what you're gaining. Next time combine the stats rather than focus on just that Dirk is better than either guy you have. Dirk + Harden is worse than Parker + Martin.

Sorry I didn't catch this for you sooner bro.

Based on those screen shots, the score is 6 to 4, and I'd make the bold prediction that, if he used BBM's "full season projections" feature (which predicts what players will do given their history and their current season combined), the score would be 5 to 5 after steals becomes a win rather than a loss. We can agree that he is losing numerically based on what has happened so far this year, but the losses are far from the severity that you seem to keep seeing.

Most importantly, he makes this deal for what's going to happen once he owns them. You think TP's gonna keep stealing the ball the way he did to start the season? You think KMart's gonna remain healthy? Here are my predictions for the rest of the way, and why I stand by the fact that this was a good deal for him.
Based on his 10 cat league:
-Dirk will finish top 10 in both per game and cumulative measures.
-KMart will miss 10+ games, significantly hurting his cumulative stats and leaving a dead roster spot on OP's bench.
-Parker will recede back to his low steals/threes and finish outside of the top 60 players like he always does.
-When you plug this into BBM's trade machine at the end of the season, the OP's new players are statistically better than who he dealt based on cumulatives, which is all that really matters in H2H.

He took a minor statistical loss in making this trade so far, which has been highlighted thru BBM; feel free to drag up this thread at the end of the season to see if your trends continued or if my projections were more accurate.
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Old 12-24-2010, 08:13 PM   #12
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bladefd
I have never traded before in fantasy football or basketball; I am almost always beating up others in regular season in leagues that I actually care about (then blow it in fantasy playoffs usually).


Why is there even a discussion here ? Dirk is a machine and well worth Parker and KMart alone. Now for that bolded stuff, pack Young and Millsap and see if you can get an upgrade (shoot for stars, like GWall) and pick up Lawson
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Old 12-24-2010, 11:30 PM   #13
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

Should I try to trade Deron Williams for somebody like Monta Ellis? He gives over 5 assists per game while being a better scorer. He doesn't shoot as high ft% of rebound as much or get as many assists as Williams. I know for sure that I am not winning the assists or ft% categories so should I try to improve my steals and scoring (+ he shoots a lot more than Deron so I expect him to make a higher volume of 3pt shots)?

Of course, I haven't made the offer yet but I have a feeling the other guy may do it. His worst categories are FTM, FT%, reb, and assists. He would improve all of that by acquiring Deron Williams. Of course, Deron Williams is the better player than Ellis so I would be taken a hit overall by improving my strengths and weakening my weaknesses.
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Old 12-25-2010, 06:28 AM   #14
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

Get an upgrade on a second player since Deron is "more" elite than Monta. Who's on the other guy's roster that you could include in a 2for2?
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Old 01-02-2011, 12:19 AM   #15
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Default Re: Dirk for Parker/Martin worth doing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by benJAMin
Based on those screen shots, the score is 6 to 4, and I'd make the bold prediction that, if he used BBM's "full season projections" feature (which predicts what players will do given their history and their current season combined), the score would be 5 to 5 after steals becomes a win rather than a loss. We can agree that he is losing numerically based on what has happened so far this year, but the losses are far from the severity that you seem to keep seeing.

Most importantly, he makes this deal for what's going to happen once he owns them. You think TP's gonna keep stealing the ball the way he did to start the season? You think KMart's gonna remain healthy? Here are my predictions for the rest of the way, and why I stand by the fact that this was a good deal for him.
Based on his 10 cat league:
-Dirk will finish top 10 in both per game and cumulative measures.
-KMart will miss 10+ games, significantly hurting his cumulative stats and leaving a dead roster spot on OP's bench.
-Parker will recede back to his low steals/threes and finish outside of the top 60 players like he always does.
-When you plug this into BBM's trade machine at the end of the season, the OP's new players are statistically better than who he dealt based on cumulatives, which is all that really matters in H2H.

He took a minor statistical loss in making this trade so far, which has been highlighted thru BBM; feel free to drag up this thread at the end of the season to see if your trends continued or if my projections were more accurate.

I don't think Parker will continue to steal two a game, but he's made a conscious effort to get more steals (there are plenty of articles about it), so yes, I do think he will keep up his career year in steals.

Also, even if all 4 players were healthy, he loses far more than he gains with Dirk/Harden. I posted their averages thus far.

Also, you're using one argument but ignoring the one that goes the other way. Dirk has been shooting far above his career high in FG% (and it's been dropping slightly). Do you expect that to continue? His career high percentages? The only thing on Parker that's gonna drop is his steals, and that's only going to drop by maybe 0.2-0.3 a game at most (he's had 6 steals in his last 3 games, btw). Dirk's FG% is WAY above his normal average, and will absolutely drop by a significant amount. Right along with his PPG. And considering the trade took a lot of PPG away from him in the first place, that's not good news.

Meanwhile, for all the talk about Martin not being healthy, Dirk is the one who's injured now. Meanwhile Parker and Martin are still putting up big numbers.

So far, this was an awful trade. Let's see how the rest of the season pans out for him. I'll say it again. . .Dirk is the best player in the deal, but the combination of Parker/Martin is better than Dirk/Harden easily. Harden is basically what you'd pick up off waivers in a not so large league. Dirk doesn't make up for him. Parker is WAY better than Harden. Much bigger gap than Dirk over Martin.
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