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Old 12-29-2014, 02:21 AM   #1
KevinNYC
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Default Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

Fighting has picked up in Libya leading to uncertainty about Libyan supply.

Russia has ordered its main oil and gas companies to sell rubles to stabilize the ruble.

So far it seems to have worked as the ruble is about 53 to the dollar down from almost 80 to the dollar.
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Old 12-29-2014, 02:22 AM   #2
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

idk what any of this means so
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Old 12-29-2014, 03:10 AM   #3
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinNYC
Fighting has picked up in Libya leading to uncertainty about Libyan supply.

Russia has ordered its main oil and gas companies to sell rubles to stabilize the ruble.

So far it seems to have worked as the ruble is about 53 to the dollar down from almost 80 to the dollar.
Arab spring messing up NATO plans for Russia, Saudis are the ones with most to lose though.
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Old 12-29-2014, 10:37 AM   #4
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dunksby
Arab spring messing up NATO plans for Russia, Saudis are the ones with most to lose though.
What plans?

Arab spring?
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Old 12-29-2014, 11:32 AM   #5
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

Here's the prediction of 50 to 1.
Quote:
Russia´s ruble has found its balance, somewhere in the 50 to 1 range. The country´s Economic Development Minister, Alexie Ulyukayev, told the local press on Saturday that the peak of urgent demand for foreign currency has passed, and the financial and economic regulators “have learned how to proceed” to keep ruble volatility in check.
However, that didn't last long as the ruble dropped 7% today on news that Russia GDP has shrunk. After two good weeks, it's back to 57 to 1.

Quote:
Russia’s economy contracted for the first time in five years in November, heralding a recession and undermining government efforts to shore up the ailing ruble.

The ruble fell the most in almost two weeks after the Economy Ministry said that gross domestic product shrank 0.5 percent in November from a year earlier. Russia’s manufacturing index declined this month by the most since May, according to a report from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. With oil prices at $60 a barrel, GDP may slump about 4 percent next year, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
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Old 12-29-2014, 11:36 AM   #6
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinNYC
What plans?

Arab spring?
Libya insurgency and NATO trying to bring down Russian economy?
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Old 01-05-2015, 12:46 PM   #7
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

Falling trends continue. US oil hits $50 a barrel! 2009 financial crisis levels

Quote:
West Texas Intermediate crude oil just broke $50 for the first time since April 2009.

In late morning trade on Monday, WTI briefly cracked $50, falling to as low as $49.95 for the first time in more than five and a half years.

Brent crude oil, used as the international benchmark, also cracked $53 a barrel, a new multi-year low.

On Monday alone, WTI crude prices are down nearly 5% as crude cannot seem to find a bottom after declining about 25% in December.

From its highs hit back in June 2014, WTI is now down more than 50% as crude has been in a bear market for the last several months.

Ruble is back up to 60 rubles to the dollar. I think Russia is going to have a bad month. If oil keeps dropping, the ruble probably will. They did a lot to prop it up in December and if it keeps dropping, yikes! The ratings on their debt will probably be cut again soon.
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Old 01-05-2015, 12:51 PM   #8
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

Gas was $1.77 yesterday so it's all good
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Old 01-06-2015, 11:07 AM   #9
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

Saudi Arabia vs Canada?
http://www.businessinsider.com/canad...howdown-2015-1

Quote:
Canada And Saudi Arabia Are In An Oil Showdown

As a test of wills between OPEC nations and US shale drillers fuels a global oil market slump, a brewing battle between Canadian and Saudi Arabia heavy crudes for America's Gulf Coast refinery market threatens to drive prices even lower.

Apparently, even without keystone XL a lot of pipelines have come online.
Quote:
Large volumes of foreign heavy oil reaching the Gulf Coast will give many US refiners more choice after they have upgraded their systems to process cheaper, heavier crudes. The new supply also marks a breakthrough in Canada's years-long effort to bring its growing Alberta oil sands crude output to new markets.

Enbridge Inc's 600,000-bpd Flanagan South pipeline, which runs from Illinois down to the Cushing, Oklahoma, oil hub, began commercial service on Dec. 1; Enterprise Product Partner announced that its 450,000-bpd Seaway Twin pipeline from Oklahoma to Freeport, Texas, shipped its first volumes on Dec. 21.

That promises another quantum leap for Canadian crude after its US Gulf Coast sales already hit a record 274,000 bpd in October, nearly three times as much as a year earlier, according to US data.

The new flows will compete with other crudes as well. Some refiners see Saudi's medium crude as a more direct substitute for Mexican and Venezuelan crudes.

However, some refiners are likely to blend oil sands crude with overabundant super-light US condensate, creating medium blends that may rival Saudi Arabia's main grade, said Citi global commodities strategist Ed Morse. He warns the clash could set up another tumble in global prices.

The growing pressure on the Gulf market is already showing up in pricing and inventories.
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Old 01-06-2015, 11:18 AM   #10
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariza4three
idk what any of this means so

The price of oil dropped and the Ruble (Russian currency) tanked because oil and energy accounts for around 1/5th of the Russian economy. Now that oil prices are climbing, the Ruble is stabilising.
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Old 01-06-2015, 12:47 PM   #11
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

they're all pretty fukked in the long run, especially countries like Russia and Venezuela. high oil prices for so long sealed their fate with the push towards alternative fuel sources. electric and hydrogen cars are the future even with low oil prices....natural gas > oil heaters....there was such a push towards alternative energy investment when oil prices were so high they fukked themselves. even competing car makers are collaborating to further electric/hydrogen tech and practicality.

that said oil will go back up IMO, not to over $100 but $80~ seems more reasonable. After that it will gradually decline after the market overreaction/correction in the long run. its going to be like cigarette companies.
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Old 01-06-2015, 01:07 PM   #12
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

Quote:
Originally Posted by KobesFinger
The price of oil dropped and the Ruble (Russian currency) tanked because oil and energy accounts for around 1/5th of the Russian economy. Now that oil prices are climbing, the Ruble is stabilising.

Actually that's not true yet. Oil and the Ruble had a slight uptick before the end of the year, but so far this, year, they are head down. The Ruble is not yet stable. it's 63 to 1 right now

Oil is stilling dropping like crazy. It's $49 a barrell as I type this.

A lot of people think that Russia bought a ton of rubles before New Year's to keep the price under $60 before the holiday, but with oil going down, the ruble probably will as well.
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Old 01-06-2015, 01:08 PM   #13
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

Putin says don't call it come back.
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Old 01-06-2015, 01:10 PM   #14
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

How crazy are things? We are seeing headlines like this

Investors Freak As Saudi Inaction Could Sink Oil To $20 A Barrel. Time To Buy?
Quote:
It used to be that OPEC controlled the world oil market while Saudi Arabia was the designated swing producer. But with the rise of new American oil, that has changed. Henceforth, it will be American oil producers that supply the world’s marginal, high-priced barrels, and American producers that will need to have the discipline (without collusion of course!) to keep from over drilling.

This reality hasn’t quite been accepted by oil companies still waiting for OPEC to take action and cut its own production. Which is why oil prices (and stocks) likely have another big leg down from here.

How far? At least $40. Maybe even $20.
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Old 01-06-2015, 01:11 PM   #15
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Default Re: Oil climbs back over $60. Ruble stable at 50 to 1?

Quote:
Originally Posted by longhornfan1234
Putin says don't call it come back.
You may want to read my previous post. The ruble is not in the 50's and it's not stable.
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