I think the West is gonna be close. Unlike the East... where Miami are the heavy favorites again, unless the Knicks can make some amazing changes, or the Bulls can add a piece or two.
I do like the Lakers chance next season, it's clear we need to improve the bench as thats what let us down. The thing was they were completely worn down after 3 long post season runs it was clear watching them play.
Hopefully now with some rest this summer they can re-tool and be ready to go. Next years team will be a different thing with a new coach, new style. It should be a good one.
Mavericks will resign Chandler and Barea, and Caron comes back almost to full form and the Mavericks will be dominant.
OKC will regret signing Perkins, and will have issues between James Harden and Westbrook needing to share one basketball, unless they move Russell back to SG like at UCLA.
Lake show will sign a nice PG, and Mike Brown will get them playing better perimeter defense. He'll confront Kobe about gambling on D, and this will cause a rift, but ultimately help the Lakers chances.
I can't see Memphis being in that elite group of 3, nor Portland or Denver.
It depends one what every team does going into October/November later this year, and even further what the teams look like after the All-Star break next season.
If there's anything the NBA has taught us.... it's don't be surprised by anything. Seriously.
I wouldn't be surprised if Thunder, or Spurs, or Bulls, or any other team wins it that's "not expected" to.