Re: Analyzing a potential LeBron Dwight swap (Insider Request!)
You are Pat Riley.
It's December 2011. The lockout has come and gone. The salary cap has been sliced, leaving the Miami Heat organization with even less wiggle room than it had before the owners and players decided to go to war. Spending power is nearly nonexistent.
It's free-agent season. The Heat need a center to anchor the paint for the future, but there just isn't anyone qualified for the job willing to take the necessary pay cut. Tyson Chandler? The biggest fish on the market won't be paid like a guppy. Nene? Dream on. Sam Dalembert? Not the answer.
Sitting in front of a desk along Biscayne Bay, you evaluate the other options. Going the trade route is a possibility. Problem is, no one's knocking on the door for Mike Miller or Udonis Haslem after their injury-riddled campaigns in 2010-11. The only organization that values Joel Anthony enough for a five-year contract is yours. You're not trading any of the Big Three for obvious reasons. So, the void at center for the Miami Heat hopelessly remains.
Then the phone rings.
Otis Smith, the general manager for the Orlando Magic, is on the other end.
Dwight Howard for LeBron James.
That's the proposal on the table.
Preposterous, the idea that someone would willingly trade the most talented and wildly productive player in the game. Oh, and he's entering his prime. Throw in the fact that he's under control for two seasons and paid about a third of his on-court value. You respond to Smith with a polite thanks-but-no-thanks and cordially end the phone call.
And then, the scenario starts playing out in your head.
This would be like filling the Grand Canyon with the Grand Teton. At center, Howard is the best defensive presence in the league. Erik Spoelstra is a defensive architect who, in 2009-10, managed to scrap together the third-best squad in defensive efficiency with a frontcourt of Michael Beasley and Jermaine O'Neal. Put Howard and Spoelstra together and it's hard to imagine the Heat not becoming the basketball version of the Steel Curtain.
Looking purely at the individuals, there's a considerable drop-off going from James to Howard on the offensive end of the floor. However, basketball is not like baseball, a sport in which you can add offensive pieces with little to no regard for how they'll fit together. Yankees GM Brian Cashman didn't have to worry about any potential negative effects of sticking Alex Rodriguez next to Mark Teixeira in the batting order; they're offensive juggernauts no matter whom they play with.
Basketball isn't that simple. Putting together a fluid and effective offense is a lot like fitting puzzle pieces together, except the shapes aren't as well-defined as cardboard cutouts. When the Heat combined the forces of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James, coexisting was initially an uncomfortable exercise. They fulfilled nearly identical roles on offense, and although their immense versatility prevented a completely redundant relationship, there is a substantial overlap of skill sets. As a result, James took a step back offensively (his turnover rate soared to heights unseen since he was 19 years old) and the Heat weren't the offensive machine the world expected.
For the Heat, swapping James for Howard would put Wade back as the primary option and, perhaps more importantly, allow the Heat to space the floor with a knockdown shooter. Having James or Wade stand in the corner wasn't a threatening formation, but deploying a sharpshooter such as James Jones as a decongestant? There's a reason the Heat's offense was at its best (113.3 points per 100 possessions, according to basketballvalue.com) when Jones took the floor.
Would the Heat lose some offensive punch with Howard instead of James? Perhaps, but be very careful about discounting the effect of better spacing. Chris Bosh could play in the high post and midrange, where he's most comfortable. Wade wouldn't have to worry about taking turns. (In November, Wade went as far as to say, "You don't want to take two shots in a row.") The Heat couldn't trot out two sharpshooters at the same time last season without taking something away defensively, but with Howard, that wouldn't be an issue.
For the Magic, the benefits are obvious. James is perhaps the greatest two-way player in the sport. Sure, he might not be the heavyweight anchor like Howard on defense, but he's a lockdown defender on the wing (just ask Derrick Rose and Paul Pierce) who can play virtually any position on the floor. After James dedicated himself to being a defensive force under coach Mike Brown, he has buoyed an elite defense ever since. That won't change in Orlando under coach Stan Van Gundy even though James isn't as dominant physically as Howard.
Let's look at the broader picture. Instead of watching their franchise cornerstone walk for nothing in the summer of 2012 (as many fully expect), the Magic could cash in on the greatest talent in the game and keep him through at least the 2012-13 season, after which he can become a free agent. The Orlando front office understands the catastrophic and equally plausible scenario of entering 2012-13 empty-handed. If it can avoid that organizational disaster and reel in a two-time MVP in the process, that's a home run for a franchise with a cloudy future.
If you're Riley, there are plenty of logical reasons not to entertain the idea of swapping James for Howard. In the first season of a long-term commitment, the Heat came within two wins of a title despite absorbing Mike Bibby's disastrous postseason. The team is not broken, so there's no pressing need to make a fix. Considering Wade's age and crash dummy playing style, dealing the Marquette product, instead of James, probably would be the safer choice, but the Heat front office might not have the stomach to deal the longtime face of its franchise to an intrastate rival.
In the end, here's the reality of the situation: With James, the Heat are title contenders; with Howard instead, they are still title contenders. On one hand, inserting Howard into the equation would produce a defensive powerhouse with a balanced scoring arsenal. On the other, keeping James would allow the Heat to build on a foundation that is already elite on both ends of the floor.
So, James or Howard? If you are Pat Riley, there is no wrong answer -- just the easier one.
Re: Analyzing a potential LeBron Dwight swap (Insider Request!)
They wouldn't be title contenders with Howard. They'd be title locks.
Unless Wade sustained a severe dropoff, they would be unbeatable (and Wade would get his first MVP). Imagine if the Heat had Howard on the backline to cover up for Bosh's defense, and, for that matter, the defense of Chalmers and Miller (who would start).
But, they will never do it, because in doing so they'd be seen as admitting a mistake. I know you're thinking they got to the Finals, so how can it have been a mistake? But, you can't convince me they couldn't have gotten as far or farther with Wade/Bosh/PG and C acquired through money spent on James....
They wouldn't have been "the favorites", but they would have been a favorite. The East would have come down to the Heat, Bulls, and whoever James played with between the Cavs and Knicks. And if James went to the Bulls, then Rose never becomes an MVP-considerable player, so the Wade/Bosh/? Heat still would have had an even chance.
Re: Analyzing a potential LeBron Dwight swap (Insider Request!)
Bosh is also like the ideal PF to pair with Dwight Howard. But I think Miami would be able to push Orlando into including another piece or two. Then again, none of this would ever happen because two instate rivals would never trade their best players for each other.
LeBron would work better with Howard than Wade would IMO. But I find it hilarious that people don't think Wade and LeBron work well together because they lost in the Finals. Before that, everyone was saying they were the perfect 1-2 punch. Whatever.
Re: Analyzing a potential LeBron Dwight swap (Insider Request!)
As for Miami, it would definitely benefit them. Spending the LeBron money on an Elite Center seems like a more logical option to me. Doubt it'll happen though, I just can't see Pat Riley just betraying LeBron like that.
Re: Analyzing a potential LeBron Dwight swap (Insider Request!)
Quote:
Originally Posted by RRR3
But I find it hilarious that people don't think Wade and LeBron work well together because they lost in the Finals. Before that, everyone was saying they were the perfect 1-2 punch. Whatever.
people said throughout the season that they weren't cohesive together, it was said well before the finals. neither of them is versatile enough as an offensive player to be able to defer and still remain effective.
Re: Analyzing a potential LeBron Dwight swap (Insider Request!)
Quote:
Originally Posted by RRR3
LeBron would work better with Howard than Wade would IMO. But I find it hilarious that people don't think Wade and LeBron work well together because they lost in the Finals. Before that, everyone was saying they were the perfect 1-2 punch. Whatever.
...what sports talk are you listening to? Their struggles to co-exist were widely documented. Both players play a redundant game and have problems deferring to one another at points.
Analyzing a potential LeBron Dwight swap (Insider Request!)
Bynum is obviously a far more marketable, talented and all-round better player than LeBron. Yes.
