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Old 09-28-2011, 01:42 PM   #1
Fazotronic
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Default The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Read the full article here:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9486

I saw many threads about these two guys and after finding this interesting article i though it might help the debate.

Quote:
....
I can see what Simmons is talking about -- Dirk ranks ahead of Bird in career PER, WS48, and net Rating. Only SPM considers Bird to be better than Dirk (in fact, SPM says Bird is significantly better). Dirk's ridiculous efficiency numbers really jump off the page -- his career translated offensive rating is 4.5 points higher than Bird's, and it's not the product of a usage discrepancy, either. It's hard to argue that Dirk Nowitzki isn't a more efficient offensive player than Larry Bird was.

However, does that mean he's necessarily a better offensive player? By definition, SPM better predicts the behavior of 5-man units than a simple skill-curve based combination of offensive rating + usage, and SPM says Bird was actually a slightly better contributor to an offense than Dirk, despite Nowitzki's huge efficiency edge. Bird's assist rate per 36 minutes dwarfs Dirk's, as does his offensive rebounding rate, so while Dirk dominates on pure scoring skill (the ability to create high-percentage shots), Bird's all-around offensive game is being undervalued by efficiency-based metrics. The numbers also say Bird was a significantly better defensive contributor than Dirk, which jibes with their reputations (Dirk was once known as "Irk Nowitzki" because he lacked "D").

All told, though, it's closer than we would probably like to think. Bird has a near GOAT-level rep and Dirk is best known as the leader of a Dallas team that frequently underperforms in the playoffs (this year notwithstanding), but the evidence at hand says Dirk Nowitzki is either at or at least near Larry Bird's level as a player, depending on how much you value raw offensive efficiency vs. all-around offense.
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Old 09-28-2011, 02:52 PM   #2
Legends66NBA7
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Two different era's (rules have changed, so it's not easily comparable)
Two different players
Two different team systems (philosphies on how to win)

There are reasons why you can't put your eggs in one basket for stats (or for this case advanced stats), alone.

Both are great players. One of them is considerably better. And i don't need any advanced stats to tell me who that is.
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Old 09-28-2011, 03:06 PM   #3
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legends66NBA7
Two different era's (rules have changed, so it's not easily comparable)
Two different players
Two different team systems (philosphies on how to win)

There are reasons why you can't put your eggs in one basket for stats (or for this case advanced stats), alone.

Both are great players. One of them is considerably better. And i don't need any advanced stats to tell me who that is.
This
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Old 09-28-2011, 03:35 PM   #4
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Just more evidence of Larry Bird being the most overrated player of all time..
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Old 09-28-2011, 04:37 PM   #5
KevinNYC
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

I believe Red Auerbach said if you only look at the stats, you don't know Bird's contribution to his team. He also said after much soul searching that Bird was one the guy he would pick to start a team with. So he picked Bird over Russell.

One thing that separates Bird from Dirk for me, is that Bird is one of those players who can impact the game from virtually any spot on the floor. That was the exciting thing about watching him, when he was on, he could do everything on the floor and his anticipation was uncanny.
Dirk is definitely more efficient.
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Old 09-28-2011, 04:52 PM   #6
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legends66NBA7
Two different era's (rules have changed, so it's not easily comparable)
Two different players
Two different team systems (philosphies on how to win)

There are reasons why you can't put your eggs in one basket for stats (or for this case advanced stats), alone.

Both are great players. One of them is considerably better. And i don't need any advanced stats to tell me who that is.


Look at this fool....


I made a thread about #24 and he gave links to websites using "advanced stats" to slight #24

But now advanced stats show Dirk is better then Bird and dis fool is backpedaling like a MoFo and saying stats doesn't mean anything because of all those things he said above (different era's etc.)

Dirk>Bird...deal wit it.
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Old 09-28-2011, 04:56 PM   #7
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Dirk fan here. Dirk is my favorite player of all-time.


Bird is better. Period.
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Old 09-28-2011, 05:10 PM   #8
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlphaWolf24

Dirk>Bird...deal wit it.

more efficient offensive player for sure but that doesn't mean Dirk > Bird
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Old 09-28-2011, 05:37 PM   #9
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fazotronic
Read the full article here:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9486

I saw many threads about these two guys and after finding this interesting article i though it might help the debate.


The comments on that link are in interesting read.

I didn't know about WARP or about the battle between the APBRmetrics community and the Wages of Wins community.


Also I didn't know this about Bird
Quote:
Then I was at his very last game in game 7 of the 1992 ECSF at Cleveland. There were signs all over leading to the Coliseum saying things like "Larry's last game" etc. Of course he didn't announce his retirement until after the Olympics that summer. Bird had a clause in his contract that he would get paid millions of dollars if he didn't announce his retirement until after a certain date.
But he went to the Celtic front office and told them he was retiring. Celtic president Dave Gavitt, knowing full well the payment would kick in in a week or less, told Larry to take his time and think about it.
Bird refused, well aware of the money and the deadline involved. He wouldn't take the money if he wasn't going to play, even though he probably saved the NBA more than anyone in the early 1980s. Not too many guys today would turn that down, would they?
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Old 09-28-2011, 05:39 PM   #10
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yao Ming's Foot
Just more evidence of Larry Bird being the most overrated player of all time..
Did Kobe Bryant never exist?
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Old 09-28-2011, 05:39 PM   #11
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinNYC
I believe Red Auerbach said if you only look at the stats, you don't know Bird's contribution to his team. He also said after much soul searching that Bird was one the guy he would pick to start a team with. So he picked Bird over Russell.

One thing that separates Bird from Dirk for me, is that Bird is one of those players who can impact the game from virtually any spot on the floor. That was the exciting thing about watching him, when he was on, he could do everything on the floor and his anticipation was uncanny.
Dirk is definitely more efficient.


You obviously can't know Bird's contributions just by looking at stats. He arguably provided the most intangibles of any player ever. Even going by pure stats, he's a better version of LeBron.


Quote:
more efficient offensive player for sure


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Old 09-28-2011, 05:47 PM   #12
with malice
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlphaWolf24
Look at this fool....


I made a thread about #24 and he gave links to websites using "advanced stats" to slight #24

But now advanced stats show Dirk is better then Bird and dis fool is backpedaling like a MoFo and saying stats doesn't mean anything because of all those things he said above (different era's etc.)

Dirk>Bird...deal wit it.
Nah. A fool would be anyone trying to assert that Dirk Nowitzki is better than Larry Bird.
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Old 09-28-2011, 05:47 PM   #13
with malice
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Quote:
Originally Posted by RRR3
Did Kobe Bryant never exist?
Or LeBron James?
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Old 09-28-2011, 05:48 PM   #14
RRR3
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Quote:
Originally Posted by with malice
Or LeBron James?
LeBron is underrated these days considering most people think he's some d-league scrub.
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Old 09-28-2011, 05:48 PM   #15
Legends66NBA7
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Default Re: The Bird-Dirk Advanced Stat-off

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlphaWolf24
Look at this fool....


I made a thread about #24 and he gave links to websites using "advanced stats" to slight #24

But now advanced stats show Dirk is better then Bird and dis fool is backpedaling like a MoFo and saying stats doesn't mean anything because of all those things he said above (different era's etc.)

Dirk>Bird...deal wit it.

Look at Alpha jumping to conclusions

First of all, show me where i said that "stats don't matter". I said :

"There are reasons why you can't put your eggs in one basket for stats (or for this case advanced stats), alone. "

I didn't say they don't matter at all.

Now show me what your talking about considering that #24 thread. I don't seem to recall them or your taking this out of context of what i said.

And you can show us all where Dirk > Bird.

And yes the era's were different. Clearly different. That's why stats can be skewed if you don't put them in proper context.

Oh and by the way, i thought this was your Top 5 :

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlphaWolf24
I'll give you the players that I have watched for nearly 30years...I never watched Basketball when Russell or Wilt or to familiar with any Pro Game before 1980.....these are the best players that I have watched and followed..

pretty much from 1980 till present...

1.Magic
2.Jordan
3.Kobe
4.Bird
5.Duncan

Hmmm......
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