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Old 01-15-2012, 01:18 AM   #76
Timmy D for MVP
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Default Re: Alex Smith

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Originally Posted by baseketball4life
he's the most clued in fan of the 49ers I know. Possibly the most knowledgeable one in the bay area.

Is he a Bay Area guy? Playmaker's Dad are you a Bay Area Guy?

Because very seriously I'm curious. This isn't the first time they put weight on Alex's shoulder. This idea that he didn't carry the offense at times is silly. Any team that has been this successful cannot possibly do so without their QB carrying the team at some point.

But I go back to this point: is he, or is he not extremely effective in this offense? An offense that regularly takes 3 years with the same core to master. You're right the playbook was tiny at the start of the season, now it's far more open. That is by design, what with the lockout and all.

They run a conservative offense because it's a WCO.

I honestly ask you: What would stop Alex from becoming a top level guy? (Outside of injury which, again, is a very real possibility). His talent? His intelligence? What? You say he CAN'T. Why is that?
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Old 01-15-2012, 01:18 AM   #77
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Default Re: Alex Smith

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Originally Posted by Carbine
From a talent perspective...there's really no reason he can't be a very good quarterback. He throws the ball with zip, is accurate enough, is making good decisions this year....and has shown to raise his level when it gets tough so far this year.

He's improved, for sure, from previous years.
His improvements have a lot to do with coach Harbaugh. Jim has put together an offense built around running the ball, playing turnover free football, playing very conservatively at times, i.e. by NOT *edit* putting the game in Alex Smith's hands. Alex is being asked to do a lot less then what he has in the past hence the great TD to INT ratio.

There are a lot of QBs in the NFL if coached by Jim Harbaugh while having the luxury of an all time great defense that would have similar or greater success.

One of the best statistics used to measure Quarterbacks is yards per attempt where Alex ranks around 15th among starters which is around where I would rank him amongst starting QBs. I've pointed out his qualities but he also has some major deficiencies that are masked (credit to the coaching). Do you think it's a coincidence that this entire roster minus Carlos Rogers/Aldon Smith went 6-10 last year?
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Old 01-15-2012, 01:30 AM   #78
Timmy D for MVP
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Default Re: Alex Smith

Quote:
Originally Posted by Playmakers Dad
His improvements have a lot to do with coach Harbaugh. Jim has put together an offense built around running the ball, playing turnover free football, playing very conservatively at times, i.e. by putting the game in Alex Smith's hands. Alex is being asked to do a lot less then what he has in the past.

There are a lot of QBs in the NFL if coached by Jim Harbaugh while having the luxury of an all time great defense that would have similar or greater success.

One of the best statistics used to measure Quarterbacks is yards per attempt where Alex ranks around 15th among starters which is around where I would rank him amongst starting QBs. I've pointed out his qualities but he also has some major deficiencies that are masked (credit to the coaching). Do you think it's a coincidence that this entire roster minus Carlos Rogers/Aldon Smith went 6-10 last year?

So that's not enough to be considered more than a game manager?

I mean in all honesty, outside of maybe the very elite QBs, every single QB can be put in the same box. The successful ones are helped out by their teams and coaches. In fact even the elite ones are. There is no such thing as a perfect QB. The best ones are the ones who use their strengths, and mask their weaknesses better.

Alex has narrowed the gap between exposing his strengths and masking his weaknesses. It's not like Harbaugh has brought something new to the table as far as Alex's talents are concerned. We've seen flashes of excellence since Smith came into the league. Which is what made it all the more frustrating when he did the opposite.

I understand wanting a better QB, could always use a better QB. And without a doubt Harbaugh has been the difference. But it's not coddling Alex, it's installing a system (that he would have used regardless), deciding Alex was his guy, and then building confidence in him. Now he has the confidence, he'll make throws like he did today, and even all season. Is he perfect? Hell no, but he still has room to grow, and even if he doesn't, if he doesn't regress, then he's still at a good spot.

He can manage a game, not turn the ball over AND he can make the throws when needed.

So if you MUST lable him as a GM how about calling him a GM+ or like GM 2.0?
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Old 01-15-2012, 01:35 AM   #79
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Default Re: Alex Smith

Quote:
Originally Posted by Timmy D for MVP
So that's not enough to be considered more than a game manager?

I mean in all honesty, outside of maybe the very elite QBs, every single QB can be put in the same box. The successful ones are helped out by their teams and coaches. In fact even the elite ones are. There is no such thing as a perfect QB. The best ones are the ones who use their strengths, and mask their weaknesses better.

Alex has narrowed the gap between exposing his strengths and masking his weaknesses. It's not like Harbaugh has brought something new to the table as far as Alex's talents are concerned. We've seen flashes of excellence since Smith came into the league. Which is what made it all the more frustrating when he did the opposite.

I understand wanting a better QB, could always use a better QB. And without a doubt Harbaugh has been the difference. But it's not coddling Alex, it's installing a system (that he would have used regardless), deciding Alex was his guy, and then building confidence in him. Now he has the confidence, he'll make throws like he did today, and even all season. Is he perfect? Hell no, but he still has room to grow, and even if he doesn't, if he doesn't regress, then he's still at a good spot.

He can manage a game, not turn the ball over AND he can make the throws when needed.

So if you MUST lable him as a GM how about calling him a GM+ or like GM 2.0?
I think that is bull with all due respect. Harbaugh would use an entirely different system if his QB was, say Eli, Vick, Rodgers, Brees whoever. This system was tailor made for Alex. But I agree with a lot of your points. But if Alex is around the 15th best QB, as a franchise you don't settle with someone like that as your long term answer. If you have a top 5-8 QB, maybe stretch it out to top 10 QB in the NFL you stand pat and you have your long term answer. Otherwise you are looking to improve continuously.
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Old 01-15-2012, 01:49 AM   #80
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Default Re: Alex Smith

Quote:
Originally Posted by baseketball4life
I think that is bull with all due respect. Harbaugh would use an entirely different system if his QB was, say Eli, Vick, Rodgers, Brees whoever. This system was tailor made for Alex. But I agree with a lot of your points. But if Alex is around the 15th best QB, as a franchise you don't settle with someone like that as your long term answer. If you have a top 5-8 QB, maybe stretch it out to top 10 QB in the NFL you stand pat and you have your long term answer. Otherwise you are looking to improve continuously.

Sure it wouldn't have been THIS exact system but it would have been a modified version of this system. You stick with what you know, and what works, and that's what he knows and has worked for him thus far.

And I do understand that, but two things become an issue:

1) Is this his ceiling?
2) Can they obtain a sure fire QB in the top-10?

The team has to look at those points this off-season. Like I personally think he's got a higher ceiling because his physical talents lend to that type of status AND his work ethic is top level. The question is where is his mentality? But I think with Harbaugh he doesn't have to worry about that as much anymore, especially now that he's got a bit of a leash with the fans. I think you get him some receivers he can get there.

The second part is a more intriguing one to me. I'm picking up a business minor because... well it's practical tbh, but also it interests me. I like to think in values in sports. What is the guarantee that you'll pull a top-10 QB, and at what cost? If you get a fringe top-10 guy it could possibly be that the QB is a product of their own system. They might not flourish in the SF situation. Then you've wasted time, effort, and resources. And if it's an elite QB it'll likely cost you to lose some of the other things that make you so successful. You also disrupt the mojo of the team a bit. Not that they'll bring in a cancer but to pull out a leader like that is tough.

What I'm saying is that, I agree with you. Always looking to improve. But I think their best bet right now is to improve by developing Alex, the system, and the team around him. Develop Kaepernick behind him cause that kid has some serious talent himself. (Serious, serious talent imo).

At this point I don't think it would make sense to go chasing after someone. Because he's improved as the season's gone on (without his 2nd WR for most of it and even his 1st WR is more like a 1.5 WR with an occasional case of the dropsies), so we really don't know where his peak is at yet.
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Old 01-15-2012, 01:58 AM   #81
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Default Re: Alex Smith

Alex Smith really impressed me today. He played great especially down the stretch. Alex Smith is better than Matt Ryan in my opinion. That is if that opinion hasn't been said or claimed already.
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Old 01-15-2012, 02:03 AM   #82
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Default Re: Alex Smith

Here we go in circles again. No one is suggesting "chasing" anything. What I suggested was simply that Alex is not the long term answer at Quarterback for the Niners. That the Niners won't be able to rely on having an all-time great defense year in and year out, it's simply putting too much weight on one unit. The offense is going to need to generate more points in order to sustain a high level of success in the future.

Just so you fully understand when I say Alex isn't the long term answer at QB that doesn't mean he won't be re-signed in the offseason or that he shouldn't be the starting quarterback next season. I am saying that if the right opportunity arises where they can upgrade at that position then they explore that option. I am not advocating selling first round draft picks or doing anything remotely drastic in order to acquire a new QB. Alex has played well in this system, for the first time in his career. He will be the starting QB of the 49ers next year, barring injury.

As far as his ceiling is concerned, he's in his 7th season coming off a career year. It's rare that QBs this late in their career develop a whole lot more. Can he make improvements in some areas? Of course, but he's not going to all of a sudden became a vertical/downfield passer. That's just not in his skill set, that will never change. He relies heavily on short and accurate throws and he is very good in that area. There is a reason why the Niners don't attack defenses down the field...Newsflash it's not because Jim Harbaugh doesn't want to.

Also lets dispel this notion that a WCO is built to run the ball and play smash mouth football, that's about the craziest thing you've said in here. The west coast offense since it's inception is designed to spread defenses out and beat teams vertically, this has become even more evolved in recent years .Look at the offenses the Packers and Eagles are running as great examples of teams who run true WCOs.

And what kind of flashes of excellence have we seen from Alex prior to this season. Can you provide examples of that? We've seen one of the least effective starting QBs in the NFL for the past 6 seasons. Harbaugh plays tremendous role in this rebirth of Alex Smith.

Last edited by Playmakers Dad : 01-15-2012 at 02:19 AM.
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Old 01-15-2012, 02:05 AM   #83
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Default Re: Alex Smith

Quote:
Originally Posted by StateOfMind12
Alex Smith really impressed me today. He played great especially down the stretch. Alex Smith is better than Matt Ryan in my opinion. That is if that opinion hasn't been said or claimed already.
LOL no he is not. Matt Ryan is probably overrated to the casual fan but he is definitely better then Alex Smith. If Matt Ryan played quarterback for the 49ers with an all world defense and one of the best coaches in professional sports (whose greatest strength is probably coaching up QBs) he'd be excellent, and the entire offense would open up, a ton.
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Old 01-15-2012, 02:25 AM   #84
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Default Re: Alex Smith

Quote:
Originally Posted by Timmy D for MVP
Sure it wouldn't have been THIS exact system but it would have been a modified version of this system. You stick with what you know, and what works, and that's what he knows and has worked for him thus far.

And I do understand that, but two things become an issue:

1) Is this his ceiling?
2) Can they obtain a sure fire QB in the top-10?

The team has to look at those points this off-season. Like I personally think he's got a higher ceiling because his physical talents lend to that type of status AND his work ethic is top level. The question is where is his mentality? But I think with Harbaugh he doesn't have to worry about that as much anymore, especially now that he's got a bit of a leash with the fans. I think you get him some receivers he can get there.

The second part is a more intriguing one to me. I'm picking up a business minor because... well it's practical tbh, but also it interests me. I like to think in values in sports. What is the guarantee that you'll pull a top-10 QB, and at what cost? If you get a fringe top-10 guy it could possibly be that the QB is a product of their own system. They might not flourish in the SF situation. Then you've wasted time, effort, and resources. And if it's an elite QB it'll likely cost you to lose some of the other things that make you so successful. You also disrupt the mojo of the team a bit. Not that they'll bring in a cancer but to pull out a leader like that is tough.

What I'm saying is that, I agree with you. Always looking to improve. But I think their best bet right now is to improve by developing Alex, the system, and the team around him. Develop Kaepernick behind him cause that kid has some serious talent himself. (Serious, serious talent imo).

At this point I don't think it would make sense to go chasing after someone. Because he's improved as the season's gone on (without his 2nd WR for most of it and even his 1st WR is more like a 1.5 WR with an occasional case of the dropsies), so we really don't know where his peak is at yet.

I think there is something we can finally agree on fully. I think the best business decision is to go with Alex for the forseeable future. No need to overpay for someone who is not A) guarenteed to be better than Alex, or B) be better than Alex at running this system. They have Alex signed at a affordable price through this year I think aslong as they don't overpay him (and I doubt they will, because the competition will not be there for his services and I believe Alex wants to stay in SF) the best decision is to roll with Alex. I think for the next 1-3 years he's the answer from the business perspective because its simply not worth it to chase someone else by paying millions and/or draft picks when you have someone that is fine running the system currently. But long-term looking they should have other plans IMO.
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Old 01-15-2012, 02:37 AM   #85
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Default Re: Alex Smith

Quote:
Originally Posted by Playmakers Dad
LOL no he is not. Matt Ryan is probably overrated to the casual fan but he is definitely better then Alex Smith. If Matt Ryan played quarterback for the 49ers with an all world defense and one of the best coaches in professional sports (whose greatest strength is probably coaching up QBs) he'd be excellent, and the entire offense would open up, a ton.
I'm going to really disagree with your analysis there.

Alex Smith doesn't have an advantage on his team this season over Matt Ryan and his. If Smith did have any sort of advantage over Ryan this, it was fairly minimum. I can see a good amount of advantages that Ryan had on his team over what Smith had on his though.

49ers have a great defense, probably the best in the league. Falcons are no slouch on defense either. They were ranked 6th in rush defense this season. The Falcons had an elite run D this season themselves. Now obviously they were not as good as the 49ers rush defense but what I am trying to say is that the 49ers weren't heavily superior than the Falcons in that aspect. The same thing goes for the Falcons and 49ers pass D, they were both very closely ranked statistically. The 49ers were better but again, it wasn't by a lot.

The Falcons are much more talented offensively, and I am not even factoring or counting the Ryan or Smith to dictate this.

One thing you have to keep in mind is that the Falcons have much better offensive weapons than the 49ers do. The 49ers are not that talented on offense, at least in my opinion. I have to say the Falcons O-line is probably better. I am basing it on the fact that Smith got sacked 44 times this season while Ryan got sacked like 26 times this season.

Now lets talk about the ground attack...

Michael Turner vs. Frank Gore, for the most part. It is pretty much a draw although I would say Frank Gore is the better RB just because he is more versatile and can do more than just run. I think everyone would agree with me on this right? It is kind of odd though since Turner actually had better receiving stats than Gore did but I still say Gore is better and more versatile despite that. I don't think everything is stat-related.

Also, there is a reason why Turner had posted better rushing statistics than Gore did this season and has been for a while now. A lot of it actually has to do with the fact that Turner has the better offensive line in front of him. That is going back to the point I made earlier with how the Falcons have a better o-line than the 49ers do.


Now lets factor in who Smith throws the ball to and who Ryan throws the ball to.

Smith has Mike Crabtree, Kyle Williams, Tedd Ginn Jr., Brett Swain, and an underutilized Vernon Davis.

Ryan has Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Harry Douglas, and Eric Weems.

It is very safe to say that Matt Ryan has much offensive weapons to throw it to. Ryan has a all-pro WR in White, a future all-pro WR in Jones, and a future HOFer in Tony Gonzalez. Those other WRs that Ryan has aren't really scrubs either.

Who does Smith have other than Mike Crabtree, who by the way isn't even close to being as good as Julio Jones or Roddy White? Vernon Davis who is very underutilized in the pass game? Ted Ginn Jr. and Kyle Williams who are mainly special teams players?



You can talk about how Smith has the defensive advantage all you want but it's pretty clear that Ryan has the much better offensive advantage.
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Old 01-15-2012, 11:49 AM   #86
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Default Re: Alex Smith

Quote:
Originally Posted by GOBB
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/...416/alex-smith


Looks like a bust to me. Bust = failed to live up to expectations. The season he is having just tells me he isnt a joke of a starting QB. There are QBs who started in the past because teams had no alternative solution. Alex Smith isnt that bad. But to think so far this season the bust label should be removed? No sir.

#1 pick overall in the draft. I know of a guy who went in the same draft. Guess what he's doing today.

49ers in the NFL title game, and if they defeat GB, you'll switch like a bit*h. If they still lose to the Packers next week, and San Fran repeats rewarding themselves homefield advantage next post season (yes even playing in the league's weakest division, 12+ wins is 12+ wins), you'll switch like a bit*h.

There's a good chance one of these two could happen. Jumping ship yet, GOBB?

You once stated in a thread long ago, you felt Carson Palmer was Top 3 QB in the league when he was atop his game, even after his injury (and no I dont feel like digging up the thread, I wouldnt lie about this ish however). I still feel CP is one of the league's elite (and yes, that's obvious homerism or just being a blind monkey, but at least I can admit it!), you however, like you often do, switch like a bit*h.

I'm assuming you no longer consider Palmer an elite QB, much less Top 3.
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Old 01-15-2012, 11:51 AM   #87
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Default Re: Alex Smith

Quote:
Originally Posted by Playmakers Dad
LOL no he is not. Matt Ryan is probably overrated to the casual fan but he is definitely better then Alex Smith. If Matt Ryan played quarterback for the 49ers with an all world defense and one of the best coaches in professional sports (whose greatest strength is probably coaching up QBs) he'd be excellent, and the entire offense would open up, a ton.

I don't know PT. You put Matt Ryan and the Falcons in the weak NFC West (where there's no Saints caliber team) and they'd probably do just as well, if not better.

On paper, ATL looks just as good, again, if not better.
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Old 01-15-2012, 12:07 PM   #88
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Default Re: Alex Smith

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Originally Posted by Legend of Josh
49ers in the NFL title game, and if they defeat GB, you'll switch like a bit*h. If they still lose to the Packers next week, and San Fran repeats rewarding themselves homefield advantage next post season (yes even playing in the league's weakest division, 12+ wins is 12+ wins), you'll switch like a bit*h.

There's a good chance one of these two could happen. Jumping ship yet, GOBB?

What are you babbling about?

Quote:
You once stated in a thread long ago, you felt Carson Palmer was Top 3 QB in the league when he was atop his game, even after his injury (and no I dont feel like digging up the thread, I wouldnt lie about this ish however). I still feel CP is one of the league's elite (and yes, that's obvious homerism or just being a blind monkey, but at least I can admit it!), you however, like you often do, switch like a bit*h.

I'm assuming you no longer consider Palmer an elite QB, much less Top 3.

Keyword. What was your point that because one time I felt Carson Palmer was an elite talent at QB, among the top 3. That today I have to still feel that way?

I used to have KG in my top 5 when it came to the NBA. Now? Not even. Uh oh, I switched like a b!tch.

You tripped over your feet and sacked yourself. Good job idiot.
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Old 01-15-2012, 12:49 PM   #89
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Default Re: Alex Smith

Jim Harbaugh coming to San Francisco was the best thing that happened for Alex Smith.
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Old 01-15-2012, 12:54 PM   #90
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Default Re: Alex Smith

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legend of Josh
I don't know PT. You put Matt Ryan and the Falcons in the weak NFC West (where there's no Saints caliber team) and they'd probably do just as well, if not better.

On paper, ATL looks just as good, again, if not better.

I'm not sure what you're responding to.

How would they do better? The Niners finished 13-3.
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