Message Board Basketball Forum - InsideHoops

Go Back   Message Board Basketball Forum - InsideHoops > InsideHoops Main Basketball Forums > Football Forum

Football Forum Football forum - NFL football forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 02-03-2012, 09:23 AM   #1
niko
I Run NY.
 
niko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Brooklyn
Posts: 29,817
niko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable
Default How come media members don't understand odds?

I've heard about 1,000 time this week that the odds (Patriots 3 pt favorites opening, 2 1/2 now) means Vegas is picking the Pats to win. Odds (point spreads) are not meant to pick the game. Vegas is not trying to get everyone to bet one way, and then win the other side. That would be them gambling. Vegas is trying to get half of the best on each side (Giants/Pats) and then at worst, with the % they charge on the bets, win, and at best, maybe one way or another falls out and they get some extra money.

The big name teams historically (Pats, Steelers, Packers, Cowboys) get more bets. In a game like the Super Bowl, where there are a lot of casual betters there is a lot of action on the Pats. Thus, to get a betters split, Pats are favorites. If they were underdogs they'd get too much of the bets.

I heard a million times "everyone is picking the Giants, therefore Vegas is happy because when the Pats win, they'll make a killing". No, everyone is not betting on the Giants because then the line would move. It's only moved a half point. A majority of sportswriters are picking them, but that is not the betting public.

The Pats very well may kick our ass but based on the past few weeks, if this was a regular season game, we'd probably have a pick em type game. But since it's the Super Bowl, the casual money required a line that stimulated betting against the Pats.

If you are Joe Schmo i watch one game a year, who are you betting on? 13 Win Pats, who just beat Ravens, with Tom Brady. Or 9 win Giants, who struggled against the 49ers (who i know are good, and you know are good, but the general public underrates) and their QB, Eli Manning?

I don't think any media members understand the spreads. How can that be? And worse, they explain it like they do.

Last edited by niko : 02-03-2012 at 09:26 AM.
niko is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2012, 10:55 AM   #2
HAzE024
KRYPTONATE!
 
HAzE024's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Gotham
Posts: 459
HAzE024 has decent reputationHAzE024 has decent reputation
Default Re: How come media members don't understand odds?

while youre right in theory - in this case, it does not apply. the Giants are just as high a profile team as the Patriots and are backed by the largest media market in America. To me, its just a bad line, Vegas bought into this mysticism the media created for the Brady/Belichek combo that hasnt won a super bowl in almost a decade (now with a much worse defense), but the public doesnt seem to be fooled + the Pats have become the team to hate lately.

i think it should be a pick 'em game, but if you at the teams on paper, my Giants should be favored.
HAzE024 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2012, 11:11 AM   #3
niko
I Run NY.
 
niko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Brooklyn
Posts: 29,817
niko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable
Default Re: How come media members don't understand odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by HAzE024
while youre right in theory - in this case, it does not apply. the Giants are just as high a profile team as the Patriots and are backed by the largest media market in America. To me, its just a bad line, Vegas bought into this mysticism the media created for the Brady/Belichek combo that hasnt won a super bowl in almost a decade (now with a much worse defense), but the public doesnt seem to be fooled + the Pats have become the team to hate lately.

i think it should be a pick 'em game, but if you at the teams on paper, my Giants should be favored.
No, New England (since the mini dynasty), Dallas, Green Bay, Pittsburgh all get points in their lines just based on who they are. Check their lines, they are higher than normal.
niko is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2012, 11:49 AM   #4
-p.tiddy-
the Sho Kosugi of ISH
 
-p.tiddy-'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: -dallas, texas-
Posts: 15,000
-p.tiddy- is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable-p.tiddy- is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable-p.tiddy- is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable-p.tiddy- is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable-p.tiddy- is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable-p.tiddy- is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable-p.tiddy- is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable-p.tiddy- is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable-p.tiddy- is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable-p.tiddy- is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable-p.tiddy- is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable
Default Re: How come media members don't understand odds?

the line is created by the gamblers...they adjust the spread to try and get a perfect 50/50% of the money on each team, then they charge the winners 5% "juice"

so that way they take home 5% of all the money bet no matter who wins the game.




the spread is just a reflection of what the gamblers are doing....looks like the money started to lean toward the Gaints, so they changed the spread to 2.5 to get more people to bet Pats and even it out.
-p.tiddy- is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2012, 01:02 PM   #5
niko
I Run NY.
 
niko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Brooklyn
Posts: 29,817
niko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable
Default Re: How come media members don't understand odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by -p.tiddy-
the line is created by the gamblers...they adjust the spread to try and get a perfect 50/50% of the money on each team, then they charge the winners 5% "juice"

so that way they take home 5% of all the money bet no matter who wins the game.




the spread is just a reflection of what the gamblers are doing....looks like the money started to lean toward the Gaints, so they changed the spread to 2.5 to get more people to bet Pats and even it out.
its back to 3 actually.
niko is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2012, 11:33 PM   #6
BrooklynZoo
The Brooklyn Brawler.
 
BrooklynZoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,372
BrooklynZoo has decent reputationBrooklynZoo has decent reputation
Default Re: How come media members don't understand odds?

no, its true that a lot of the bets are on the giants. i heard 65%
BrooklynZoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 08:27 AM   #7
niko
I Run NY.
 
niko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Brooklyn
Posts: 29,817
niko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginableniko is the Michael Jordan of posters with the best reputation imaginable
Default Re: How come media members don't understand odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooklynZoo
no, its true that a lot of the bets are on the giants. i heard 65%
The line would have moved then. It did not.
niko is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 11:31 AM   #8
BrooklynZoo
The Brooklyn Brawler.
 
BrooklynZoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,372
BrooklynZoo has decent reputationBrooklynZoo has decent reputation
Default Re: How come media members don't understand odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by niko
The line would have moved then. It did not.

the line was originally 3.5 and is now 2.5. it has moved so the action has been on the giants. it may have leveled a little now but it was around 65%

Last edited by BrooklynZoo : 02-04-2012 at 11:33 AM.
BrooklynZoo is offline   Reply With Quote
This NBA Basketball News Website Sponsored by:
Reply


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:41 PM.




NBA Basketball Forum Key Links:
InsideHoops Home
NBA Rumors
Basketball Blog
NBA Daily Recaps
NBA Videos
Fantasy Basketball
NBA Mock Draft
NBA Free Agents
All-Star Weekend
---
High School Basketball
Streetball
---
InsideHoops Twitter
Search Our Site













Powered by vBulletin Version 3.5.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd. Terms of Use/Service | Privacy Policy