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Old 05-01-2012, 11:32 AM   #16
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Default Re: Odds that a player will start in the NFL by what round he was drafted

Quote:
Originally Posted by -p.tiddy-
Again, I said they only really matter in terms of grading...actually I gave them about 10% credit grade value if you read above.

If I have to keep repeating that it us because you don't get it.




Tell me niko, what % of a draft grade do you think should focus on day 3?
Not zero. Quite a bit. If the Giants didn't draft well picks 4 to 7 we wouldn't have won either of our last two titles. Honestly i don't think it should be broken down like that, i think the grade should be based on three things.
1) How efficient you used what picks you had based on number and location in draft.
2) How many needs you were able to address.
3) If you are grading instantly, how much of your draft looks like its based on "IF". Like the Jets draft, if you remove the "IF" and grade on talent, kick ass draft. If you consider the IF, not as much.

Otherwise the teams that pick higher always have better drafts.

Last edited by niko : 05-01-2012 at 11:35 AM.
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Old 05-01-2012, 12:29 PM   #17
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Default Re: Odds that a player will start in the NFL by what round he was drafted

like I said about 3-4 times in the other thread (ignored every time), I think the grade value should go along with what team use as the ACTUAL value:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft0...ory?id=2410670

IMO it only makes sense that we would place the same amount of value on the grade as teams do in real life.

I will do my own personal grade for the Browns (because we have talked about the Browns alot in here, and if I did the Cowboys several posters would whine)

so here is the Browns draft followed by the players point value, then % of the grade:

1 (3) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama...................2,200....56.8%
1 (22) - Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State.......780......20.1%
2 (37) - Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California................530......13.6%
3 (87) - John Hughes, DT, Cincinnati......................155......4.0%
4 (100) - Travis Benjamin, WR, Miami....................100......2.5%
4 (120) - James-Michael Johnson, LB, Nevada.........54.......1.3%
5 (160) - Ryan Miller, G, Colorado.........................28.4.....0.7%
6 (204) - Emmanuel Acho, LB, Texas.....................10.8.....0.3%
6 (205) - Billy Winn, DL, Boise State......................10.4.....0.3%
7 (245) - Trevin Wade, CB, Arizona........................0.95....0.02%
7 (247) - Brad Smelley, FB-TE, Alabama.................0.85....0.02%
*total of 3,870.4 points

as you can see, the bulk of the grade will be based on the first 3 rounds, as it should IMO...after all, the Browns traded 3 late round picks just to move up a single spot in the first.


SO, here are my own personal grades for each pick:

1 (3) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama.................A- 90 ...(I feel like there are two players they would have been better off taking, Blackmon and Claiborne, so I can't go A+ 100% here, but Richardson was 3rd in line for me which is good enough for an A-, I know others here would give 100%)

1 (22) - Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State.....F+ 58...(oldest player ever drafted in the first round, really a horrible pick but he is still a concensus 2nd-3rd round talent, so he gets points lol, a "0%" would be a "pass"...this pick gets 55% from me)

2 (37) - Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California....C+ 78...(they are hoping to fix a weak right side with this pick, so it makes perfect sense to me, however Cordy Glenn and Jonathon Martin and others where available, who many had rated above Schwartz)

3 (87) - John Hughes, DT, Cincinnati....F-....52...(who?, this was a projected 7th rounder, wtf, I guess they see something that every scout didn't)

*okay these grades past here are very difficult like I was trying to explain in the other thread because
A. Most are unknown to those that aren't actual scouts or anylists for a living
B. little to no highlights exist
C. It is hard to know what they should have taken because the majority of the rest are unknown

so what I will do is just give arbitrary grades based on the position they drafted and if I feel they needed it, I'm not going to pretend to know who most of these players are in these rounds.

4 (100) - Travis Benjamin, WR, Miami...............A+... 100(finally a WR)
4 (120) - James-Michael Johnson, LB, Nevada....B... 85
5 (160) - Ryan Miller, G, Colorado....................C...75
6 (204) - Emmanuel Acho, LB, Texas................B...85
6 (205) - Billy Winn, DL, Boise State.................B...85
7 (245) - Trevin Wade, CB, Arizona...................A...95
7 (247) - Brad Smelley, FB-TE, Alabama............B...85


SO...lol

lets break that down into one grade now...good thing I am decent at math

1 (3) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama...................2,200....56.8%....90
1 (22) - Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State.......780......20.1%....58
2 (37) - Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California................530......13.6%....78
3 (87) - John Hughes, DT, Cincinnati......................155......4.0%..... .52
4 (100) - Travis Benjamin, WR, Miami....................100......2.5%......100
4 (120) - James-Michael Johnson, LB, Nevada.........54.......1.3%.......85
5 (160) - Ryan Miller, G, Colorado.........................28.4.....0.7%.... ...75
6 (204) - Emmanuel Acho, LB, Texas.....................10.8.....0.3%.......85
6 (205) - Billy Winn, DL, Boise State......................10.4.....0.3%.......85
7 (245) - Trevin Wade, CB, Arizona........................0.95....0.02%...... 95
7 (247) - Brad Smelley, FB-TE, Alabama.................0.85....0.02%......85

jjk about the math, I just entered the numbers into this:
http://web.ku.edu/~utile/grade_calculator.html


-PT-'s FINAL GRADE FOR THE CLEVELAND BROWNS DRAFT:

80.4% or B-


this draft was heavily influenced by Richardson, as it should be...and in the future this draft will be seen as a hit or miss by others based on Richardson's career, as they SHOULD

if not for the rest of the picks bringing it down, the grade would have been an A-



that post took ended up being longer than I planned lol...now I must get to real work
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Old 05-02-2012, 01:41 AM   #18
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Default Re: Odds that a player will start in the NFL by what round he was drafted

^^^ so that's a decent method of grading right?

someone read that ha


it isn't nearly as long to read as it looks, simple idea really

I might have to Dallas draft like that later
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Old 05-02-2012, 01:56 AM   #19
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Default Re: Odds that a player will start in the NFL by what round he was drafted

first time I've heard of F+
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