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Old 05-15-2012, 09:29 PM   #31
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

Quote:
Originally Posted by GOBB
What did they have down for Aso?
I don't know...we will have to spend $20 for the premium...but with $500 in the pot should be no biggie

found this:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...-2011-numbers/

everyone is asking about Nnamdi below too...

I would expect it to be between 36-41 though (carbine's number)
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Old 05-16-2012, 07:45 AM   #32
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

Found this in one of the comments:

Quote:
Tom:
2012/01/12 at 6:54 pm

Can you tell us Nnamdi’s stats this year?

Rick Drummond:
2012/01/14 at 12:02 pm

571 coverage snaps, targeted 47 times, allowed 29 catches (61.7%), 376 yards, QB rating against of 88.6.

Rick Drummond is an editor for PFF so I don't think he would lie about those numbers he posted.
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Old 05-16-2012, 09:43 AM   #33
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

Yeah, I asked PFF on Twitter and they replied with 47 targets


I am now thinking that the 36 is a typo and they meant 46, because the numbers they have for everyone else are very similar, I'm not sure why they would be so drasticly different for Nnamdi.

Might have to take down the avy...
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Old 05-16-2012, 09:49 AM   #34
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

We can use whatever site you want for the bet though GoBB.
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Old 05-16-2012, 03:41 PM   #35
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

I seen plenty of places where the number varies.

We will figure out who to use.
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Old 05-16-2012, 11:42 PM   #36
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

Quote:
Originally Posted by GOBB
I seen plenty of places where the number varies.

We will figure out who to use.
PFF - 47
FO - 36
Carbine - 41

who else have you seen list a number?

I honestly think that FO's is a typo and it is 46, and I can remember Carbine making excuses for some targets not counting...I'm close to just removing this avy, but a bet is a bet

if you could show another site please post it in here
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Old 05-17-2012, 12:15 AM   #37
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

If it was a typo they wouldn't have right above it that Aso didn't have the minimum 40 targets to qualify for their charts. What makes me think PFF ****ed up their count is they have 9 more completed passes against Aso than carbine. We followed Aso along with carbine and no way he was off by 9 completed passes against him.

You're keeping your avy.
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Old 05-17-2012, 01:00 AM   #38
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

Quote:
Originally Posted by StateProperty
If it was a typo they wouldn't have right above it that Aso didn't have the minimum 40 targets to qualify for their charts. What makes me think PFF ****ed up their count is they have 9 more completed passes against Aso than carbine. We followed Aso along with carbine and no way he was off by 9 completed passes against him.

You're keeping your avy.
There were a couple completions that I can specifically remember thinking Carbine should have counted and he didn't, if anything he has too little, not too much, that is why I think it is much more likely that he is shy of the actual number rather than ahead...

Also, these type of stats are PFF's pride and joy, it is the entire reason they exist, subjective stats that you can't find other places, there is no fckin way they could screw this up...unlike Football Outsiders who are a basic football website and are just doing this as a side project...

I will keep the avy, for now...a bet is a bet and we were going by that website...but I am pretty sure they made a mistake here...maybe it is a typo, maybe they forgot a few a games, IDK...clearly something is wrong...every other CB they have is similar to PFF except Nnamdi
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Old 05-21-2012, 03:59 PM   #39
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

You can see here how stats like these are so circumstantial. These charts make Asante look like he had arguably his best year yet (and maybe still did?). You can't go strictly by stats though with football.

Quote:
Samuel's success rate - defined as the percentage of passes that don't manage to get at least 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent of needed yards on second down, or 100 percent of needed yards on third down - was 67 percent, which also ranked third.

And Samuel allowed 2.0 YAC on average, second-best. By all statistical accounts, he had a great year.

Most of you know I really appreciate the work Football Outsiders does, and I find a lot of value in the charting numbers. But in Samuel's case, I don't think the stats tell the whole story.

I went back and looked at my Man Up write-ups from last year. For the most part, Samuel did a decent job in coverage. But he also got lucky quite a bit.

In the first matchup against the Giants, Samuel got beat badly by Victor Cruz on a double move, but Eli Manning overthrew his receiver on what easily could have been a 50-yard completion.

Against the Bears, Samuel was beat by Roy Williams on what would have been a 20-yard gain, but Jay Cutler threw behind his receiver. Later, Devin Hester beat Samuel for what could have been a 45-yard gain, but Cutler underthrew him (to Samuel's credit, he recovered nicely).

Larry Fitzgerald beat Samuel with a double move, but John Skelton was off-target with his throw. And Samuel also likely had a hand in Fitzgerald's 37-yard catch late in that game, although he wasn't targeted specifically.

I have no way to prove that Samuel was luckier than other cornerbacks. And the point here is not to pick on him or poke holes in his game. For the most part, when quarterbacks threw Samuel's way last year, they didn't have a lot of success. And in 2010, the charting numbers on him were even more impressive (3.2 yards per pass, 78 percent sucess rate). But it's important to note that a couple plays going differently could have significantly changed those overall numbers.
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Old 05-21-2012, 04:07 PM   #40
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

Sheil is pretty good overall... But Saying Asante was 'lucky' makes him sound stupid..

Asante plays a technique that uses the sideline as another defender... Thats why he couldnt be put in the slot or put at safety.. He clues and uses his technique and the sideline to play his position..

Its not luck that QB's had a difficult time getting any yards against him..
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Old 05-21-2012, 06:06 PM   #41
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

Asante is always a top-5 CB in these CB metric type stats...it's no fluke at all

I acutally got in a little e-mail debate with someone at FO...

here it is:

me:

Quote:
>> I believe you made a typo in this article:
>>
>>
> http://footballoutsiders.com/stat-an...nerback-charti
> ng-sta
> ts-2011
>>
>> You have Nnamdi listed at getting a total of 36 targets. On Pro
>> Football
> Focus he is listed at 47 targets which is quite a huge difference. It
> looks as though both of you have every other CB at the same or within
> 1 or 2 targets of each other, it looks to be just a flaw with Nnamdi's
> numbers. PFF prides itself on these stats, it is their bread and butter.
>>
>> I was thinking that it is a typo, you meant "46", not "36"...which
>> would
> be just a 1 target differnce which is understandable rather than a 11
> target difference.
>>
>> Just giving you a head's up!

them:

Quote:
> Nope, that's what the charting database spits out. 38 targets, with
> two of them cancelled by penalty. I'm sure you know that we don't use
> PFF as a counter-balance or anything to figure out this stuff.
> Sometimes it just spits out differently based on charters and the
> different systems and whatnot.
>
> Best,
> Rivers McCow

me:

Quote:
> That's an enormous difference though. A 2,3, or even a 5 target
> difference is understandable for a CB that has over 100 targets, but
> you have a difference of 11 targets for one of the least targeted CBs
> in the NFL. I'm not pointing fingers or anything but when the
> difference is that big on one player and not the others it should
> probably throw up a red flag to double check the source, perhaps a few
> games were missed or something, mistakes happen.

them:

Quote:
It sounds like what you are saying is that you believe PFF and you don't believe us. That's your right. They have a group of charters watching TV tape. We have a group of charters watching TV tape. They will make some mistakes. We will make some mistakes. If it throws up a red flag, then it throws up a red flag on both. Which we already know about, and we always take care to mention that our charting data is subjective and may have some errors. I'm sorry that we haven't done more to help you trust that we do our best to get the best data possible.

Aaron Schatz
footballoutsiders.com

me:

Quote:
I told you in my last email that I wasn't pointing any fingers, either could be wrong, but like I was trying to explain the reason I would tend to trust PFF over you guys on this issue is because these stats are their bread and butter, it is the entire reason they exist, they charge money for people to look at those stats. Where for you guys it looks to be more of a side article. Perhaps it is them that is wrong on this, I am not ruling that out.

I do think that someone "goofed" though

I can you both have Asante Samuel with 61 targets I can see that you have Ike Taylor with 98 targets, they have 96 I can see that you have Sherman with 81, them 84 etc etc

2-3 targets off, understandable

then we get to Nnamdi, one of the few premier CBs in the NFL who is targeted rarely...and you have 36, them 47...a difference of 11 targets.

Another reason that would make me tend to side with them on this is that logic tells me it is much easier to have not seen or left out targets rather than to have added targets that don't exist. It is more believable that stat guy(s) left out a couple games by mistake, rather added targets that don't exist or recorded the same games twice.

Again, I'm not pointing fingers here, I am just telling you how I see it...someone is clearly off here on Nnamdi, I'm sure you are completely confident in your stats and that is fine.


no reply...yet lol
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Old 05-21-2012, 09:58 PM   #42
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

That avy is no fun during the off season. Should of started week 1!
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Old 05-21-2012, 10:50 PM   #43
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

If football outsiders is dumb enough to give you that much time out of their day then they probably could goof. Where I notice the biggest difference is PFF having 9 more completions on Nnamdi than carbine. We watched those games with carbine and im sure he wasn't off by 9 completions.
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Old 05-21-2012, 10:56 PM   #44
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

Only thing I could think of is if they counted passes against him that were screens, or if he was in a cover 2 zone and the quarterback swung it out to the running back as an outlet behind the line of scrimmage and ran towards Aso.

I did not count those as I felt that wasn't any indication of a corners ability to cover.
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Old 05-22-2012, 03:50 AM   #45
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Default Re: Primetime's 3 month Avy...taking suggestions

Yeah I can remember a couple targets that you just felt didn't count for whatever reason...

I think FO just flat out missed games though...their "counters" are likely e-friends they have never met or seen.
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