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Old 09-13-2012, 11:05 AM   #1306
TheSilentKiller
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

In my other money league I got a stat correction for the win
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Old 09-13-2012, 12:11 PM   #1307
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

Just adding fuel to the fire by telling my squad that they are ranked 8. This will be in the back of everyones mind come Sunday.
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Old 09-13-2012, 12:38 PM   #1308
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

Quote:
Originally Posted by baseketball4life
sent u a trade PT
Spiller's ceiling is THROUGH THE ROOF

2000+ yards


if you want him from me, you have to offer something real, Morris isn't real to me
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Old 09-13-2012, 12:40 PM   #1309
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

ILLINI

would you consider a trade involving Marshall and Spiller or no?

you need a RB really bad, and you have Calvin so you've got a little wiggle room at WR to give up Marshall.
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Old 09-13-2012, 12:48 PM   #1310
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

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Originally Posted by TheSilentKiller
In my other money league I got a stat correction for the win
lovely those are always fun
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Old 09-13-2012, 12:49 PM   #1311
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

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Here is my take on why I believe Chris Johnson is the biggest bust in recent fantasy football history. Let me preface this by saying I do own him in 2 leagues (I'm currently in 19). 1 of which he was auto-drafted and another draft where I panicked and selected him 10th overall.

I'd be very stunned if CJ tops 1000 yards rushing in 2012. I also think he will prove to be not just a disappointment but a bust of epic proportions.

Let's start with his most recent performance vs NE. 11 carries 4 yards, about as dismal of a performance as you're going to see in the NFL, especially when we're talking about a guy who once rushed for 2000 yards in a season. It'd be unfair to overreact to one historically bad performance as plenty of all time great players have thrown up relative duds, which is not all that uncommon. Unfortunately these types of historically bad performances have become the norm for CJ and I only see them becoming more frequent in the immediate future.

If we go back to 2011 CJ had 10 games where he rushed for under 60 yards in what turned out to be his worst statistical season (he finished as the 16th RB in our league) of his career. In only 4 games did he eclipse 100 yards rushing and only in 4 games did he surpass 15 points in our leaguge. Needless to say it was a horrible year for him. He played a full 17 week season which although sounds like its a good thing (he is durable), it's actually makes it uglier when you look at his per game metrics. He ranks around the 30th range in per game averages and efficiency. Obviously there are 32 starting RBs and hes in that bottom 5 range.

He had 4 games in 2011 where he showed flashes of "CJ2K". While those 4 games from a distance seemed promising and he showed glimpses when we get closer up they are little more than a mirage. The 4 teams he played where he topped 100 yards rushing were TB, CLE, BUF, CAR. Those 4 teams all ranked in the bottom 6 of yards and points allowed to opposing fantasy RBs. Those 4 teams had historically poor run defenses and out those 4 teams he only gets to face Buffalo in 2012.

Lets look at his recent games vs divisional opponents. This is a great indicator of expected production being that you can use a recent sample size and he will play nearly half of his season vs these 3 teams. Let's start with the best team and defense in the division Houston and look at his last 4 starts vs them (in order of most recent):

15 carries for 61 yards 4 catches 49 yards 0 TDs
(I'd like to provide some context that this was week 17 of last year, Texans had already locked up the division and was resting starters.
10 carries for 18 yards 6 catches 27 yards 0 TDs
7 carries 5 yards 2 catches 2 yards 0 TDs
24 carries 130 yards, 1 catch 7 yards 1 TD


VS INDY

14 carries for 34 yards, 3 catches for 17 yards 0 TDs
15 carries for 55 yards, 8 catches for 54 yards 0 TDs
22 carries for 111 yards, 6 catches for 68 yards 1 TD
20 carries for 39 yards, 6 catches 31 yards 0 TDs


VS JAX

15 carries for 56 yards, 0 catches 0 TDs
9 carries for 24 yards, 6 catches 25 yards 0 TDs
13 carries for 53 yards, 2 catches for 14 yards 0 TDs
26 carries for 111 yards, 2 catch 20 yards 1 TD

If we extrapolate these 12 games into a 16 game season they become:

871 rushing yards 4 TDs, 205 yards receiving. (this is what I project him to flirt with this season). This is also considering he plays a full 16 games.

Per game basis that is 54 rushing yards a game with 12 yards receiving.

In his last 12 divisional games only 3x does he crack 100, not once last year, and he only has 3 TDs in those 12 games, again not one last year. Only 4 times is he able to eclipse 60 rushing yards in those 12 games. 2011 he capitalized from playing 4 terrible defenses, which is why I think he'll regress even further south this year. He gets to play SD, DET, MIN, PIT, CHI, MIA, JETS who all are pretty stout. Not to mention HOUSTON 2x who arguably the 2nd best rush defense in the NFL behind the 9ers. So not only is it nearly a foregone conclusion he will struggle vs the division as recent history shows us, he has a brutal schedule ahead. No more cupcakes and I'm going to also venture to say he'll only have 2 games this year where he eclipses 100 yards rushing.

I've outlined why I think he's completely ineffective but one thing he can't control is his offensive line. Depending on who you talk to you'll hear ardent defenders of CJ suggest his line is atrocious, I've also heard people say he has an above average line. It's probably somewhere close to half way and I'd lean bottom half which again, doesn't bode well for him at all. According to I believe said he only saw 2 plays where his line gave him sufficient running room. Even further reason to believe he's going to struggle considering his line looks to be awful.

I at one point bought into the hype and was considering using a 1st round pick on him (before the preseason). After a lot of research I really feel strongly that he will be one of the worst 1st round busts in recent years. On my personal big board which I'm updating throughout the season I have him ranked somewhere in the 45-55 overall range. He's about my 20th ranked RB right now. Guys I would prefer over him in no order include, Foster/RR/McCoy/McFadden/Ridley/Demarco/Lynch/Charles/Spiller/Kevin Smith/Doug Martin/Ahmad Bradshaw/Ryan Matthews/Willis Mcgahee/Sproles/Reggie Bush/SJAX/Trent/MJD/Forte/Peterson..


As crazy as thing sounds he is nothing more then a skinny Shonn Greene. Sure Greene is a plodder that has a bruising style and picks up 3 yard after 3 yard run but at the end of the day their stats are nearly identical and although it sounds crazy talk, it would not surprise me if Shonn Greene outperformed CJ4Yards in 2012.
any feedback on this?

Last edited by Playmakers Dad : 09-13-2012 at 01:20 PM.
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Old 09-13-2012, 12:56 PM   #1312
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

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any feedback on this?

Youre ****ing crazy for being in 19 leagues.
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Old 09-13-2012, 01:15 PM   #1313
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

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any feedback on this?
I think you are pretty on point. It is just crazy to see how hard he fell from the top.

I am looking for a runningback if anyone is interested in trading. I have a shit ton of depth at receiver.
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Old 09-13-2012, 01:17 PM   #1314
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

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871 rushing yards 4 TDs, 205 yards receiving. (this is what I project him to flirt with this season). This is also considering he plays a full 16 games.

that's around what I am feeling too
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Old 09-13-2012, 01:18 PM   #1315
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

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Originally Posted by -p.tiddy-
that's around what I am feeling too
talk about a fall from grace.

i also think hes getting shut down this weekend vs stout SD front 7.
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Old 09-13-2012, 01:21 PM   #1316
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

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Originally Posted by Playmakers Dad
talk about a fall from grace.

i also think hes getting shut down this weekend vs stout SD front 7.
I had trouble trying to determine if SD's Defense is just that awesome or if the Raiders line is just that pathetic...prolly a little of both
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Old 09-13-2012, 01:23 PM   #1317
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

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Originally Posted by -p.tiddy-
I had trouble trying to determine if SD's Defense is just that awesome or if the Raiders line is just that pathetic...prolly a little of both
yep. SD definitely has a very stout front 7 and the Raiders have a pretty shit line, which is somewhat surprising since they graded out half of the league last year as I run blocking unit I believe.
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Old 09-13-2012, 01:29 PM   #1318
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

How did DHB look Monday Night in the Raiders game? I see the box score and it was a disappointing performance, Palmer basically threw it to McFadden and Streater every time, Heyward-Bey with only 5 targets. He had a monster stretch of the year last year, but was non-existant in many games last year. I feel like he could be a disappointment this season, but it's not like he was a high pick.

What do you feel like his outlook will be?
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Old 09-13-2012, 01:36 PM   #1319
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

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How did DHB look Monday Night in the Raiders game? I see the box score and it was a disappointing performance, Palmer basically threw it to McFadden and Streater every time, Heyward-Bey with only 5 targets. He had a monster stretch of the year last year, but was non-existant in many games last year. I feel like he could be a disappointment this season, but it's not like he was a high pick.

What do you feel like his outlook will be?
i like him a lot more when Denarius gets back. he will help that offense out a lot by opening the field up for everyone else. denarius is a mike wallace/torrey smith impact that helps everyone on the field just by defenses have to take account of them.
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Old 09-13-2012, 01:37 PM   #1320
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Default Re: 3rd Annual ISH Money League

Quote:
Originally Posted by UtahJazzFan88
How did DHB look Monday Night in the Raiders game? I see the box score and it was a disappointing performance, Palmer basically threw it to McFadden and Streater every time, Heyward-Bey with only 5 targets. He had a monster stretch of the year last year, but was non-existant in many games last year. I feel like he could be a disappointment this season, but it's not like he was a high pick.

What do you feel like his outlook will be?
my gut feeling says around 600 yards and 3 TDs
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