Very tough choice. 85% is a HUGE chance, but losing and going to prison for life is too big of a risk. I think I'd play it safe and go with the no risk 150K. It would be a tougher decision though if I was actually given this choice with 1 billions dollars in front of me.
EV1 = 1.0 * 150,000 = $150K
EV2 = (0.85 * 1,000,000,000) - (0.15 * X) where X will be my quantified cost of going to prison. If that's higher than $5.665 billion, I take option #1. I probably won't earn $5 billion over my lifetime, so the opportunity cost of going to prison is probably a lot less than that.
Type things, so I'd normally go with option #2.
But life in prison? F.uck that.
I'll go with #1. $150,000 is cool anyway.
If I went to a bank and they gave me a cd with some really good interest I could make like $10,000 a year JUST off of that interest.
In 5 years, that's $50,000.
Obviously it'd take a while but then you can start making some serious investments to set yourself up for life so you wouldn't have to work and you won't be a billionaire but shit, you don't have to be to live life at a very high comfort level
... I don't know where you live, but I can assure you that you won't be getting anywhere near that rate with a CD. CD rates are HORRIBLE right now.