Exactly. Add in the announcement that the Bucks seem to have Dalembert and now Pryz (leaves Portland hard to believe). Atlanta and the Bucks are both better than the Raptors this year assuming injuries fall equally accross all teams and nothing wierd happens.
The one golden ray of sunshine in this frankly is that the Raptors could end up being a 22 win team in an improved competative East... and that our record is still spotty enough that the lottery pick next year is "protected" from Houston. i.e. 1 - 5 (???)
So the Bucks added Dalembert and Pryz now they are the much better than the Raps. Atlanta added nobody infact it could be argued they got a lot of with the junk they got from NJ, an old T-Mac, no Hinrich, and a rotten Devin Harris. No more Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, or Kurt Hinrich
When a conference usually is improved it is usually the the all-star players that make the difference. No conference has improved as of this year. No team got an all-star player. The closest thing is Steve Nash and the next closest thing IMO is the Raps getting Kyle Lowry. Lowry instantly makes the Raps a better team. 22 wins in a 66 game season, give the Raptors some credit here. 35-40 wins is in their range I think.
So the Bucks added Dalembert and Pryz now they are the much better than the Raps. Atlanta added nobody infact it could be argued they got a lot of with the junk they got from NJ, an old T-Mac, no Hinrich, and a rotten Devin Harris. No more Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, or Kurt Hinrich
Where did I say much ???
Toronto plays 4 game each against Boston, Knicks, Nets, 76ers = 16 games against teams projected better than them and spoken of as being in the elite playoff teams of the east.
Toronto plays 3 games each against Pacers, Bulls, Heat, Hawks = 16 games against teams projected better than them and spoken of as being in the elite playoff teams of the east.
32 games of 82 where a season split would be fantastic but doubtful.
They further play an improved Wizard, Bucks, and chaotic Magic team (in the playoffs so long as Dwight is there I suppose) = 12 games
44 of 82 games where a 30% winning percentage (12-15 games) would be okay but we hope for better.
In between ...the teams they can and should beat with some consistency Bobcats, Cavs, Pistons, will sneak the odd win in here and there. 12 games - 10 wins for arguement sake.
12 +10 = 22 wins or 15+10 = 25 wins.
Then the Raptors play the Western Confernece
Where do we get the extra 15 wins in 38 games from ? The Western Conference ?
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Atlanta will take a step backward...maybe... but they were in the play offs.
Orlando will take a step back when they move Dwight...but they were in the playoffs and will be competative I pressume until Dwight moves.
The Wiz added Okafur and Ariza to Nene and Wall.
The Bucks with MontaE, Dunleavy, Jennings, Ilyasova, Dalembert, and now Pryz are a pretty good team on paper and deep with rookies. They were in the playoffs 2 years ago.
I have no doubt the above is at least as or more competative than Barges, Val, Ross/Derozan, Lowry. Further the "bottom end" Wizard and Bucks match up really well AGAINST the Raptors head to head.
Of course we all assume Val will come in like a monster - but what if the physical game he plays has him in constant foul trouble from the get go. What if he has to adjust his game and become less of a threat to foul out ?
We expect Ross to contribute immediately. What if Ross/Derozan shoot sub 40% summer league totals while he adjusts to defence in th NBA ? What if Derozan doesnt take a next step ?? Schedule, injuries, all play a factor - but give me a break. Barges could get injured too. He was last year. What if Barges misses 20 games and we lack the 400 points he would normally score ???
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This team as it is constituted now - has a higher probability of being sub 30 wins than the probability of > than 30 wins in this conference with this schedule. Defense focus or not. I am as much a fan as any guy here - but this team is still 2 years from competing.
That would change of course if a Iggy or Rudy Gay was added to this roster in some sort of move that shifted Jose Calderon and another player...
Ohh ya forgot... a regular season - not "hectic strike shortened" season .. helps teams with veterns more than young teams like the Raptors. Vets get more rest more practice time more consistency.
Might help the Raps somewhat but probably not as much as teams mentioned.
What am I missing about Atlanta? I think they are really gonna miss JJ this year and unless Teague takes a huge step forward, I can't see them not struggling to maintain 500 basketball.
What am I missing about Atlanta? I think they are really gonna miss JJ this year and unless Teague takes a huge step forward, I can't see them not struggling to maintain 500 basketball.
Agree. I keep saying this too. I don't see Atlanta being borderline elite or maintaining their level without their best player. Anthony Morrow is a huge downgrade from JJ.
Orlando is still going through all that Dwight Howard drama and they were only a 6th seed with him last year. Haven't gotten better at all. The Bucks have a great backcourt with Ellis/Jennings but their frontcourt leaves much to be desired, even with the addition of Dalembert.
To me we're middle of the pack. Right in the thick of that race for the 6-8 seed along with Chicago, Orlando, Atlanta, Philly, Milwaukee, NJ, and possibly even NY if they continue to underachieve.
to be really honest outside of the top five the east looks really as wide open as ever
a lot can happen in the span of a 82 game season, it's not really black and white as many would make it seem
i wil say though that the raptors at VERY best are a 7 or 8th seed this season. Most likely will miss the playoffs for another season but that's not necessarily a bad thing
Toronto plays 4 game each against Boston, Knicks, Nets, 76ers = 16 games against teams projected better than them and spoken of as being in the elite playoff teams of the east.
Toronto plays 3 games each against Pacers, Bulls, Heat, Hawks = 16 games against teams projected better than them and spoken of as being in the elite playoff teams of the east.
32 games of 82 where a season split would be fantastic but doubtful.
They further play an improved Wizard, Bucks, and chaotic Magic team (in the playoffs so long as Dwight is there I suppose) = 12 games
44 of 82 games where a 30% winning percentage (12-15 games) would be okay but we hope for better.
In between ...the teams they can and should beat with some consistency Bobcats, Cavs, Pistons, will sneak the odd win in here and there. 12 games - 10 wins for arguement sake.
12 +10 = 22 wins or 15+10 = 25 wins.
Then the Raptors play the Western Confernece
Where do we get the extra 15 wins in 38 games from ? The Western Conference ?
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Atlanta will take a step backward...maybe... but they were in the play offs.
Orlando will take a step back when they move Dwight...but they were in the playoffs and will be competative I pressume until Dwight moves.
The Wiz added Okafur and Ariza to Nene and Wall.
The Bucks with MontaE, Dunleavy, Jennings, Ilyasova, Dalembert, and now Pryz are a pretty good team on paper and deep with rookies. They were in the playoffs 2 years ago.
I have no doubt the above is at least as or more competative than Barges, Val, Ross/Derozan, Lowry. Further the "bottom end" Wizard and Bucks match up really well AGAINST the Raptors head to head.
Of course we all assume Val will come in like a monster - but what if the physical game he plays has him in constant foul trouble from the get go. What if he has to adjust his game and become less of a threat to foul out ?
We expect Ross to contribute immediately. What if Ross/Derozan shoot sub 40% summer league totals while he adjusts to defence in th NBA ? What if Derozan doesnt take a next step ?? Schedule, injuries, all play a factor - but give me a break. Barges could get injured too. He was last year. What if Barges misses 20 games and we lack the 400 points he would normally score ???
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This team as it is constituted now - has a higher probability of being sub 30 wins than the probability of > than 30 wins in this conference with this schedule. Defense focus or not. I am as much a fan as any guy here - but this team is still 2 years from competing.
That would change of course if a Iggy or Rudy Gay was added to this roster in some sort of move that shifted Jose Calderon and another player...
Yeah certain teams got better and some got worse but no one made a significant changes in the East. I would even argue that no team will have more improved roster than the Raps. A 5th overall pick, Lowry, Fields, and Ross. Bargs might miss some games but in the East Dwight might miss some as well before the season starts. Wade could miss a few. Injuries happen and what happens when Bargs does stay healthy? He has been taking the entire summer off.
The Raps won 22 games with the players they had in a 66 game season. The are do to win more than 30.
Guys like Okafor, Ariza, and Dalembert have reasons why they switch teams every season like it seems. Its mostly because most teams realize that they are average players that you wouldn't want starting.
Like the other posters I think the Raps will max out at the 7th-8th seed and at worse be around a 10th seed.
Also one last thing. You really need to take another look at the Raps schedule for this upcoming season
The Raps won 22 games with the players they had in a 66 game season. The are do to win more than 30.
Guys like Okafor, Ariza, and Dalembert have reasons why they switch teams every season like it seems. Its mostly because most teams realize that they are average players that you wouldn't want starting.
Like the other posters I think the Raps will max out at the 7th-8th seed and at worse be around a 10th seed.
Also one last thing. You really need to take another look at the Raps schedule for this upcoming season
Raps won 33% last year in shortened schedule.
33% of an 82 game schedule is 27.06 wins.
10th place last year (Pistons ahead of the Raptors) 25 wins on 66 games.
Prorated over 82 games = 31.06 wins.
This core is talented but is not rock solid. No chemistry yet. Barges comes of injury plagued last season. Roockie international Center. Landry Fields is no Scottie Pipen guys.... he is a decent player with a good nose for D.
I like this core in 2 years with one more player.
Guys like Okafur Ariza are not important agreed. They are signficant when added to a team that already has Nene, John Wall, and Bradley Beal.
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I did the schedule math off top of my head by memory?? Dont we still play in division 4 games and in conference 3 games ???
5 years ago we won an Atlantic Division title with Jorges Garbahosa ?
Everyone else is better too.
The reason I said 2 years ago is because 2 years ago is actually relevant We could all pick some random time way in the past and compare it to now but that would be stupid. Everyone did not get better. Since then, (3)Boston and (2)Miami are still powerhouses with more or less the same core players. (1)Chicago got worse because D-Rose is gonna be out for at least 80% of the season. (4)Orlando and (5)ATL got worse. Philly is more or less the same team minus Elton Brand. You keep making blanket statements like "everyone improved." Only 2 teams in the East made any kind of significant roster upgrades and that is us and the NJ Nets. At most, all the other teams made tweaks to their core.
Again more than tinkering. I think both these teams added quality proven vets that can play. I would have been thrilled if Bargnani ever averaged anything close to 7.9 rbs per game career average.
Chicago Bulls:
Core : Rose, Noah, Deng, Rip Hamilton (??)
Lost : 2nd string center, John Lucas 3, Ronnie Brewer
Added: Hinrich, M Belliani, Nazr M, Nate Robinson.
Less obvious with Rose out but this team lost 3 goodish players and hired on proven vets to give them depth. Would not want to be in their cap space but Noah Deng Rip Hinrich Nate can hold the team together at 500 till Rose comes back. Then we will see what happens.
Listen we can argue about all day... season will tell
Val is an international center that has prozen nothing in NBA and will take a season to 'gel'
Derozan still has questions - I like his upside
Ross has proven nothing - I like his upside.
Barges is coming back from an injury plagued season - I "hope" he plays 100%
I assume Calderon is professional enough to not be a distraction - he always was in the past.
Fields and Lucas have 6 years total experience. They averaged something like 11 minutes a game on those other teams that were in the playoffs ahead of Toronto
KLow is "the man" in Toronto. Damn near all star - I hope he loves it here !
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I bottom line predict - with this core of players and no "significant changes" i.e. no Jose Calderon move taking talent back.....this team ranks 10th place in the Eastern Conference.
Other teams supplimented or added proven NBA veterns and picks to the roster - performance known - learning curve smaller.
I am happy with the core team. This team is simply 2 years and possibly 1 impact player from being a solid consistent 5 - 8th in the east conference team. Perhaps Ross or Derozan are that player - but they are not there yet !
Based on the typical record of a 10th place team in the east - that is 25 -32 wins a seaon - more probably < 30
I personally don't consider a 39 year old Kidd who will presumably be coming off the bench and a 38 year old Camby to be significant improvements. It doesn't matter if they WERE HOF's. Shaq was a HOF'er while on the C's. But did he make HOF caliber contributions to that team? No. Because he was in his late 30's and way past his prime. Felton is a good addition, but he's also replacing their starting PG so it's not like he's adding something they didn't have last year.
I definitely don't think that the Wiz are gonna be competing for a top 4 spot in the east. They will almost definitely be in competition for one of those final 2 or 3 spots. And it's still no guarantee that they get here.
For the Bulls, reports are out that D-Rose is out until at least March. It's no guarantee that he comes back at all let alone that they will have a +.500 record in his absence.
Basically what you are doing here is giving a best possible scenario for all other teams and a worse possible scenario for our team. So agree to disagree.
Re: SLAM on the Raps
